Excuse the predictable statement, because we’ve already written variations of it a number of times this season, but these next two Championship games are of some significance for Bristol City.
They are the final two league fixtures before a four-week break for the World Cup which, yes, feels bizarre, but does represent a sort of mid-point in the season and will be, whether we want it or not, a period to reflect and cast judgement.
City have won two of their last 10 games, placing them 23rd in the Championship form table over that period of games - if you reduce it to six matches, they lie 15th - but should they enter the pause in the schedule with another two opportunities missed to gain three points - and two wins in 12 doesn't sound great - the chances are the Robins will be once again be in the nether reaches of the division.
An improving Middlesbrough and Watford does not make for an appealing double act, but Nigel Pearson could really do with at least one, preferably two, wins to ease that fluctuating tension around his team and management. Here’s how we think City will line up at the Riverside.
Goalkeeper and defence
Max O’Leary has been slightly afflicted with the Bristol City clean sheet curse as in his six appearances since replacing Dan Bentley in the starting XI, he’s kept the opposition out just once, at West Brom.
In fairness, to O’Leary if not for that momentary lapse from the defence, and quite possibly the officials, on Tuesday night, then he would have added a second against Sheffield United. And although the 26-year-old wasn’t particularly busy, he had a solid performance, as was the case last Saturday against Swansea City.
It was notable against the Blades, how much of a sweeper he was playing, constantly leaving his box to provide passing angles for his defenders and almost becoming an 11th outfield player, when required. Pearson once again spoke of his positivity this week and there’s nothing to indicate he won’t keep his place against Boro today.
There will be at least one change to the trio in front of him with George Tanner serving the first of his three-match ban for his red card against Sheffield United. Tanner had been lining up to the right of the three and the expectation is that Zak Vyner will move away from the central berth and back into the role he’d assumed for much of the season.
In terms of then covering that space, it surely means a return to the starting XI for Timm Klose, now recovered from illness and probably with a bit of a point to prove after Pearson mentioned, in passing, his lack of consistency this season.
The real point of interest will be to the left of the Swiss. Cam Pring is in possession of the shirt and although he wasn’t as impactful against Sheffield United as he was four days previously when Swansea were in BS3, it’s hard to see him being dropped.
That being said, Rob Atkinson brings a lot to this team, has probably been City’s best and most consistent defender this season, on and off the ball, and gives the Robins extra thrust going forward plus also greater physicality at set-pieces - both attacking and defensive. If Atkinson is given the green light to play after illness, Pring has to be the man to miss out.
There is a theory that Atkinson could line up in the centre with Vyner and Pring to either side but Pearson, as yet, hasn’t played that system and an away game at a Middlesbrough side with a confident and anticipatory air in the stands, doesn’t seem the ideal forum for trialling it.
As for the wing-backs, Mark Sykes will be on the right-hand side and while Pring also comes into the conversation on the left, Jay Dasilva has been a consistent presence in the starting XI so far and that surely will remain the same at the Riverside.
We should also note that Tomas Kalas has trained this week but with the World Cup break on the horizon, unless another defender goes down injured, ill or suspended, it seems an unnecessary risk to start the Czech after his injury problems this year.
Midfield
This area of the field should be pretty quick to discuss because Alex Scott and Matty James were both very good against Sheffield United and should continue their partnership at the base of the City midfield.
We could debate Scott’s role to an extent, as his influence has dipped a bit in the final 20-30 minutes of matches of late but he’s just too good not to start and is developing a strong chemistry with James, as the veteran provides him a platform to go and strut his stuff.
Pearson has strong cover in the form of Joe Williams, Andy King and Han-Noah Massengo, if he wants to use him, plus Dylan Kadji - who will surely get a run out against Lincoln City - but it’ll be a huge surprise if it’s not Scott and James anchoring the midfield.
In front of that duo, Andi Weimann has returned to the starting XI after illness and perhaps a bit of fatigue due to the amount of minutes he’s played over the last 12-15 minutes but there were glimpses against the Blades that his explosivity is returning, most notably his drive on the stroke of half-time which clattered the top of the crossbar.
Pearson has used Antoine Semenyo in the No10, and Tommy Conway at times, but with Weimann back fit, the Austrian looks the preferred player in that role.
Attack
From feast to famine, City haven’t been hitting the free-scoring rate they were managing at the start of the season for some time now. But, based on Tuesday’s evidence, it’s not through the want of trying and given the penalty box pressure and shooting opportunities created, somebody should have found the back of the net.
That being said, that almost subconscious fluidity between the front players hasn’t quite been there of late - with the exception of Conway’s brilliant goal against Swansea - and with four in their last five games, that’s a very obvious reason why their points return has been so low.
Does Pearson mix it up once again and pair Semenyo, who came on against Sheffield United, with Wells or Conway? It’s certainly possible. Conway, in particular, looked a little leggy at Ashton Gate which was, in part, why areas of the stadium met Wells’ withdrawal with 10 minutes to go with their vocal displeasure.
There is a strong argument to suggest that such is their chemistry and how successful their partnership has been, that Conway and Wells will continue in front of Weimann but Pearson want consider a change is best for all parties given the Scotland Under-21 international will naturally experience inconsistent patches and it’s about managing them to get the best out of him and for the team.
We should also flag the fact that, as a partnership, Wells and Semenyo haven’t quite clicked. Granted, it needs time to blossom - unlike the Bermudian’s relationship with Conway - but that fact may also enter Pearson’s thinking a little and once again consider sticking with his two from Tuesday.
Chris Martin and, quite possibly, Sam Bell will be under consideration to fill the final attacking spot on the bench.
Bristol City (3-4-1-2): Max O’Leary; Zak Vyner, Timm Klose, Cam Pring; Mark Sykes, Matty James, Alex Scott, Jay Dasilva; Andi Weimann; Antoine Semenyo, Nahki Wells
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