With just over three weeks to go before Brexit day, a smell of urgency is in the air.
The UK’s attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, and the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, are back in Brussels on Tuesday. Their mission is to return with a firm “legal add-on” to enable May to tell MPs next week that Cox has changed his legal advice on the Irish backstop and he no longer believes it will “trap” the UK in a customs union with the EU indefinitely, as he averred in November.
Before we get to the main developments of the last week, a reminder that producing the Guardian’s independent, in-depth journalism takes time and money. We do it because we believe our perspective matters and it may be yours, too. If you value our Brexit coverage, please become a Guardian supporter. Thank you.
If you would like to receive it as a weekly email, please sign up here. And you can catch our monthly Brexit Means … podcast here.
Main developments
This was the week that the remainers in the Tory party finally stood up to be counted after defector Anna Soubry said the party was being held to ransom by the European Research Group (ERG).
After it emerged last Monday that 15-20 cabinet ministers threatened to resign if May didn’t take no deal off the table, the prime minister emerged in the House of Commons with a pledge of three key votes for parliament – a vote on her deal; a vote on no deal and a vote on extending article 50.
But her climbdown needs to be matched by more than 100 opponents if she is to get her deal over the line next week. Even if she gets the ERG and the Democratic Unionist party on board many believe she will need dozens of Labour voters to neuter hardline anti-dealers in her own party.
Already, her key opponents, the ERG and the DUP, have indicated a softening of position in preparation for the critical votes on 12, 13 and 14 of March. Tony Blair (see below) smells machiavellian motives.
But for now, the key development is that both have accepted that the assurances need not be in the agreement itself, a significant change in approach especially given the DUP demand the backstop had to be removed altogether from the withdrawal agreement.
But even if she can get the ERG and the DUP onboard, May is by no means out of the woods. A key vote in the Commons last week designed to take no deal off the table exposed just how far away she still is from a deal.
As many as 22 Tory MPs voted against a non-legally binding amendment put forward by Yvette Cooper designed to remove no deal as an option.
They included Esther McVey and William Cash, MPs who will probably never vote for May’s deal.
But worryingly for May, a further 88 predominantly Eurosceptic Tory MPs abstained, including Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
There is also concern about the numbers of Labour MPs who might defy Corbyn and vote for May’s deal after her bid to shore up support by announcing £1.6bn boost for deprived towns was dismissed as a fairly hollow “Brexit bribe”.
What else in the last week?
There was a big win for EU citizens and a big lose for the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, in the high court.
Campaigners for the future rights of EU citizens got a surprise turbo-boost after the Tory backbencher Alberto Costa won government backing for an amendment forcing Theresa May to seek an urgent meeting in Brussels to “ringfence” their rights in the event of no deal.
The support came after a chaotic few hours during which Costa was forced from his job in a junior government post and the home secretary, Sajid Javid, said there was “nothing wrong” with the amendment, less than 24 hours after May had dismissed it as unworkable.
Costa has written to Donald Tusk and awaits his reply.
And there was trouble for Grayling, who was being sued by Eurotunnel over his Brexit ferry contracts. On Friday, he saved himself the embarrassment of a four-day trial by coughing up £33m in an out-of-court settlement.
There was also some big news at the Labour party with a move towards a second referendum, something many believe does not have the support of Jeremy Corbyn.
“When the meaningful vote comes back – and we are told maybe that might be on 12 March – there are rumours today that it could be next week … That’s the time when we will have to put the amendment up,” said Labour’s shadow chancellor, John McDonnell.
What’s next?
All eyes on Brussels this week.
Much focus this week will be the “review mechanism” in the Irish protocol in the agreement. According to Cox’s legal advice last November, this clause “adds little, other than procedurally, to the international law position to which the protocol is already subject”.
The EU and the UK have been working to flesh out three potential areas to provide the legally binding assurances
The overall objective, say officials, is to allow Cox to change his legal advice, dating back to November last year, that the backstop could “trap” the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU indefinitely.
Michel Barnier has suggested that there could be a “joint interpretative statement” or “legal add on” over the backstop.
But there may also be a joint text on the “alternative arrangements” and the future use of technology, as provided for in the political declaration paragraphs 140 and 141.
In Downing Street, the calculation appears to be that May may need two or even three meaningful votes to get her deal over the line (or test it to destruction).
May hopes to win round more hardline Eurosceptics to back her deal, playing on their fears that a delay to Brexit could mean a second referendum.
If she fails, the Commons will then be asked to vote on no deal and a possible extension of article 50 that international trade secretary Liam Fox said this week would be “acceptable”.
An extension to article 50 is not guaranteed, however, with a firm warning by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, that France would block a Brexit delay unless there is a firm “choice” by the UK on a new direction.
Best of the rest
Any extension of article 50 must be a one-off.
Don’t just use A50 extension to go around in circles, use it to decide future relationship, May told.
Independent Group moves to push for second referendum.
Labour will whip its MPs on second referendum vote.
Eurotunnel will get its £33m from Grayling deal or no deal.
Concern over food safety standards after the US outline objectives for post-Brexit trade deal.
Government no-deal paper reveals economy could shrink by up to 9%; Northern Ireland businesses could go bust and food prices rise.
Beyond insane: Why a home-dialysis patient fears no-deal could kill her.
Comment
This week it’s over to Daniel Hannan, widely considered one of the architects of Brexit, and Tony Blair, who both agree that the big issue is not the withdrawal from the EU but the lack of debate and decision on the UK’s future relationship with the EU – Norway, Canada or no deal?
Here, Hannan makes a case for a 21 month extension to article 50.
But is a terrible Brexit in 2019 really worse than a successful one in 2020? Isn’t there at least an argument for replacing 21 months of non-voting membership, when we’d have no veto and so be in the weakest possible position to negotiate a final settlement, with a new deal whereby we moved straight to the final settlement, with no need for a transition
Tony Blair argues that an extension to article 50 has to be meaningful and force May to choose what she wants – Canada, Norway or no deal and then put it to the people. Otherwise the Brexiters have won.
Ultimately, the Brexiters’ strategy will be to get Britain out, remove May, elect a Brexiter to deliver a hard Brexit or possibly fight an election against a weakened Labour party to secure such a mandate. Those who want a soft Brexit, including Labour MPs who may be thinking of backing the deal, would be ill advised, unwittingly, to co-operate with this strategy.
