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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

UK coronavirus: PM says Christmas rules will not change but urges caution and minimal contact with others – as it happened

Early evening summary

Boris Johnson at PMQs
Boris Johnson at PMQs Photograph: Parliament/Jessica Taylor
  • Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has said that he expects the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to be approved for use in the UK by early in the new year. Speaking at the No 10 press conference, when asked when it would be available, he said it was up to the regulator, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). He went on:

I think there’s a fair chance that by early in the new year, possibly before, but that entirely depends on the data, they will be able to say whether they are confident that this vaccine is both efficacious and safe.

That’s all from me for today. But our coverage continues on our global coronavirus live blog. It’s here.

Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, told Radio 4’s PM programme that he agreed with 95% of what the prime minister said at his press conference this afternoon about Christmas. Asked if it was a mistake for the four nations to agree rules for Christmas in November which he is now tightening up in Wales, he replied:

Well, certainly things have changed in a way that if we were making the plan today from scratch we probably wouldn’t have come to the same set of conclusions.

But you are right that the driver for deciding it when we did was because people were anxious to know what sort of Christmas was going to be available to them.

And people will have been able to plan within the parameters that were set there – those parameters are broadly still there although we are asking people to use that modest additional freedom carefully, cautiously and responsibly.

Trade talks with EU likely to continue 'over the coming days', says No 10

Downing Street has put out a statement saying it expects the trade talks with the EU to continue “over the coming days”. The Commons will go into recess, as planned for Christmas, tomorrow, but Downing Street says it can be recalled very quickly to pass the trade deal legislation if necessary. That could happen early next week, a spokesperson said.

The process for recall will align with the process for finalising the legislation for a deal, if one is secured, and no time will be lost.

Under the recall process, we will adapt the days’ proceedings to focus exclusively on the passage of that legislation. This may mean meeting at an earlier time.

From the Daily Mirror’s Pippa Crerar

The UK government has not yet updated its coronavirus dashboard. Normally it gets updated at around 4pm. This may be related to a hold-up with case numbers from Wales. (See 3.29pm.) These are from ITV Wales’ James Crichton-Smith.

The Welsh government has said that it is making its guidance on limiting Christmas bubbles to two households a legal requirement so as to make it “easier” for the public to understand.

A Welsh government spokesman said:

Ministers decided this afternoon that we will be amending the regulations in Wales. So for December 23 to 27 the restriction on two households meeting will be part of Welsh law.

It makes it easier, so we don’t have the position where the law says one thing and the guidance says something else.

Earlier today Mark Drakeford, the first minister, said the two household condition was just guidance. But a decision was subsequently taken to make it law.

BRITAIN-HEALTH-VIRUSA woman in a facemask walking past graffiti on Victoria Street in central London today.
BRITAIN-HEALTH-VIRUS
A woman in a facemask walking past graffiti on Victoria Street in central London today. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Labour has accused Boris Johnson of “mixed messaging” over Christmas. Here is Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary.

From the former Financial Times editor, Lionel Barber

The leader of the Welsh Conservatives in the Senedd, Paul Davies, has accused the Welsh government of losing control of the Covid crisis. He said:

The Welsh government has clearly lost control of the pandemic in Wales, where we now need a fire blanket not a firebreak to put out the flames of infection that are raging in some part of Wales.

Over the last few weeks families would have been making the tough calls as to who they need to cut out from their Christmas, now having to rethink, whilst also having to deal with the confusion in the mixed messages from the Welsh government with guidance saying one thing, and regulations saying something else.

The Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price, said:

Given the mixed messaging from the prime minister and Westminster, the Welsh government need to change the rules not just the guidance on household mixing at Christmas. Otherwise, it’s simply a recipe for confusion and poor adherence to the new policy.

Updated

Boris Johnson's new Christmas guidance for England - Summary and analysis

This morning some newspapers (generally those sceptical about Covid restrictions anyway) led on stories about how Boris Johnson was defying calls to tighten the Christmas rules. “PM will defy pressure to cancel Christmas,” said the Daily Express splash headline. The Daily Mail (here), the Times (here) and the Daily Telegraph (here) said much the same.

In a narrow, technical sense, they weren’t wrong. The law that will allow a five-day window during which up to three households can meet in England will stay in place.

But, in considerably strengthening the advice about how people should minimise contact at Christmas, Johnson has come close to performing a U-turn. When the government originally announced the Christmas plan, it stressed the importance of acting responsibly, but did not go into details. At a press conference two days later, asked if it was really sensible to travel hundreds of miles to see relatives, Johnson essentially dodged the question.

Now he is issuing extensive precautionary advice, which he set out in his opening statement.

  • Johnson suggested people should delaying visiting elderly relatives until they have been vaccinated. He said:

So if you’re elderly, the best way to minimise your personal risk is to wait to be vaccinated before spending time indoors with others.

And if you have an elderly relative, you might want to delay seeing them until they’ve been vaccinated.

  • He said people in high-prevalence areas should if possible avoid travelling to a low-prevalence area. In practice, in England, this seems to mean advising people in tier 3 not to visit people in tier 2.
  • He said people should if possible avoid staying away from home overnight.
  • He urged people to adopt an isolation policy before Christmas, as far as possible, if they were visiting others for the holiday. He said:

If you are visiting others over Christmas, we are asking you – in the five days beforehand, as early as this Friday – to reduce the number of people you are in contact with to the lowest possible because this virus spreads from human contact.

  • He said it was “safest to minimise the number of people you meet”.
  • He said, if possible, people should avoid having three households meeting for up to five days. Although this was what the law allowed, he said these were “maximums, not targets to aim for”.
  • He said people should “think carefully about avoiding crowds in the Boxing Day sales”.

At one point in the press conference Johnson also said it would be “inhuman” to cancel Christmas.

I want to be clear, we don’t want to ban Christmas, to cancel it, I think that would be frankly inhuman and against the instincts of many people in this country.

But for some people, following his advice in its entirety might feel like cancelling Christmas.

He did stress that this was advice, not law. But with gap between the law and the guidance now increasingly wide, Johnson may have muddled the overall messaging, leaving people less sure as to what is acceptable.

Updated

Angela Rayner, the deputy Labour leader, has written to the Conservative party co-chair, Amanda Milling, calling for an inquiry into the revelation that the Wellingborough Conservatives have been urging activists to campaign using “fake news”. In her letter Rayner said:

After the prime minister and the foreign secretary refused to speak out when President Trump was claiming victory and alleging fraud in the US presidential election, this newsletter seems to demonstrate that the Conservative party is copying from Donald Trump’s playbook and implementing a political strategy of weaponising fake news, making dishonest statements and telling brazen lies in order to “crowd out” and “overwhelm” the truth.

Johnson ends the press conference using a joke that he used in his opening statement.

Have yourself a merry little Christmas but this year, alas, preferably a very little Christmas.

But he says that he hopes next year it will be back to “Christmas as normal for everybody”.

Q: Where are we in the trade talks?

Johnson says that is very much a matter for the EU. They know the UK’s terms. But the UK would prosper if it had to trade on WTO or Australian terms.

Q: When will the Oxford vaccine become available?

Johnson says he has always been in the anxious camp on vaccine, keen not to “over-promise”. He does not want to jinx things by over-promising at this stage.

Whitty says this is very much in the hands of the regulator. It has access to lots of data not in the public domain.

He says he is hopeful that by early in the new year, or possibly before, it will get approved.

If that happens, it will be rolled out gradually at first, as with the Pfizer one, so the health service can check for problems.

But it will be much easier to distribute, he says, because it is easier to store than the Pfizer one. If it can be used, it will considerably speed up the point at which all vulnerable people can be protected, he says.

Updated

Asked if he has a Christmas present for Nicola Sturgeon, Johnson says the people of Scotland will become the proud possessors of thousands of tonnes of fish after the post-Brexit transition ends.

Q: Does this represent a more tolerant approach to restrictions?

Johnson does not accept that. He says, “alas”, the government is still being very proscriptive. It may be the strictest approach since Cromwell’s time, he says.

The guidance is there to help people exercise personal responsibility, he says.

Q: If someone follows the law, but ignores the guidance, and they give Covid to someone who dies, whose fault is it? Yours or theirs?

Johnson says he does not want to criminalise people, but he wants people to follow the guidance.

Whitty says in much of the UK the problem is getting worse or flatlining.

Within the choices available, people should do the minimum.

Some medical experts are saying this should be law. Others are saying it should be guidance. But they essentially agree on the need to do the minimum.

Updated

Whitty says it is like driving on ice. You would not drive at 70mph, even if you could.

He says he does not think people will push things to the limit. He expects people to act responsibly, as they have done throughout this.

Johnson says it would be 'inhuman' to cancel Christmas

Q: Wouldn’t it be better to stop people meeting at Christmas?

Johnson says it would be “inhuman” to try to cancel Christmas.

But he wants people to think about what they can do to minimise contact at Christmas.

They should exercise their personal responsiblity.

Q: What does the modelling say about the risks of people mixing at Christmas?

Whitty says the modelling shows that more mixing at Christmas would lead to more deaths.

He stresses the importance of people doing what they can to reduce the risks.

Q: Will social distancing end once the vulnerable have been vaccinated?

Johnson says a few weeks ago he spoke about the crossover point, when vaccination would allow measures to be eased.

We are “by no means there yet”, he says.

But he says that point will come before Easter.

Whitty says the vaccine will initially help to reduce the number of people dying from the disease. But if you relax the rules then, other people would get infected in large numbers. Some would die.

He says population immunity will occur if vaccine can reduce transmission.

He says the Pfizer vaccine, and the next two vaccines coming, the Oxford one and the Moderna one, will stop people getting ill.

But he says they do not know if the vaccines will stop the spread. He hopes they will.

He says it is not realistic to expect that there is no coronavirus in the community. It will continue to be present, at low levels, “probably for the foreseeable future”.

He says he expects it will be like flu, which kills 7,000 people in a normal year, or 20,000 people in a bad year.

Updated

Whitty says both options for Christmas are bad options. The government has tried to minimise the risk. But people should think what they can do to reduce the risk.

Whitty urges people to keep it short, keep it local, and keep it small.

That means they should not mix households for long periods. They should minimise travel. And they should mix in small groups.

Johnson says people should consider delaying seeing elderly relatives until they have been vaccinated

Boris Johnson is speaking now.

He says, with the vaccine being rolled out, an end to the crisis is in sight. But we must “hold our nerve”, he says.

He says there are worrying signs of cases rising.

At Christmas people should exercise “extreme caution”.

He says, “alas”, the overall situation is worse than it was when the Christmas rules were drawn up.

The four nations of the UK will not criminalise people who made plans based on the five-day relaxation of restrictions announced in November, he says.

So the rules will not change, he says.

But the four nations are issuing strong advice.

When we say three household can meet on five days, I want to stress that these are maximums, not targets to aim at.

Of course, it’s always going to be safest to minimise the number of people you meet and that means that, if you’re visiting others over Christmas, we’re asking you in the five days beforehand, as early as this Friday, to reduce the number of people you’re in contact with to the lowest possible, because obviously this virus spreads through human contact.

Johnson also says people if at all possible should avoid travelling from a high prevalence area to a low one.

If possible, people should avoid staying away from home overnight, he says.

He says people may want to avoid seeing elderly relatives until they have been vaccinated.

And he urges people to avoid crowds at the Boxing Day sales.

Updated

Boris Johnson's press conference

Boris Johnson is about to hold a press conference at No 10.

He will be joined by Prof Chris Whitty, the goverment’s chief medical adviser.

A new software update from Apple means that the NHS Covid-19 contact tracing app should shortly be available for older iPhones, dating back to 2013’s iPhone 5s.

The exposure notification technology on which the NHS’s app runs was built by Apple and Google, and set strict limits on what governments are able to do to build contact tracing apps. They are unable, for instance, to access the location of users of the apps, nor can they track who has been in contact with potentially infectious.

The chief limit until now, however, has been that governments are unable to support devices which haven’t received a crucial software update containing the exposure notification framework. For Apple, that meant any device older than 2015’s iPhone 6s wasn’t supported, no matter how much the government wanted to ensure that people without access to the latest tech were included. (For Android devices, the situation is more convoluted, given the widespread fragmentation across manufacturers).

Now, Apple has pushed a rare software update for so-called “obsolete” phones, which don’t normally receive anything other than crucial security updates. iOS 12.5 will bring the exposure notification framework to older phones for the first time.

Sadly, it is unlikely that that will lead to the NHS Covid-19 app making it onto those devices before Christmas: developers will still need to update their own apps to make them work on the older devices, which, paired with the review process, means even January is a stretch.

But eventually, one of the main complaints about the exposure notification system should be put to rest.

But the coronavirus figures for Wales today have been delayed, Public Health Wales says.

Here are the latest coronavirus figures for Northern Ireland.

Here are the latest coronavirus figures for Scotland.

There are also 1,031 Covid patients in hospital now. A week ago the figure was 972.

NHS England has recorded 369 further coronavirus hospital deaths. The details are here.

This is the highest daily recorded total for more than two weeks.

Northern Ireland may face further restrictions after Christmas, first minister suggests

Arlene Foster, the first minister of Northern Ireland, has suggested that further Covid restrictions could be introduced in the region after Christmas.

She said Robin Swann, the health minister, will be proposing new measures at a meeting of the power-sharing executive tomorrow. She said she was not expecting recommend tightening rules before Christmas, but she said she could not rule out further restrictions after the holiday. She said:

Unfortunately the last two weeks don’t appear to have brought the R number down below 1, there is a diminishing return in terms of restrictions, people are out and about now and so there is a very great need for people to have personal responsibility.

I note what Wales have done, we were speaking to Mark Drakeford this morning on a four nations call and he indicated that that would be the case. I am not going to prejudge what the minister [Robin Swann] is going to bring to us but undoubtedly we will have something to say tomorrow and over the next few days.

Michelle O’Neill, the deputy first minister, said she thought a further intervention was needed. She told reporters:

I think it is totally unacceptable that people are being cared for in the back of ambulances but that shows you our health service is under huge pressure so it is very clear to me that what we need is to have an intervention, what that looks like we will discuss at the executive tomorrow.

At an online press conference, Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said that if the government did not agree to put the whole of his region into tier 2, it should consider placing most of it in tier 2. He said:

If the government does not want to put Greater Manchester as a whole in Tier 2, particularly given the fact a couple of our boroughs are above the national average or close to it, we do still believe there is a very strong case for a substantial part of the city region to be placed in tier 2.

We would ask the government to give regard to the fact we have been under restrictions for four-and-a-half months, that would mean five months by the next review period.

In a good HuffPost article Paul Waugh argues that, since Dominic Cummings quit as the PM’s chief adviser, Boris Johnson seems to have discovered the art of compromise. Johnson may also have embraced the importance of consultation too. Asked at the Welsh government press conference if he had noticed any change in the willingness of the UK government to operate on a four-nations basis since Cummings left Downing Street, the first minister, Mark Drakeford, said:

I’ve no way of linking what has happened to any particular individual or event but the facts are simply that over the last month we have had a more regular and reliable pattern of engagement with the UK government. Regularity of engagement leads to better sharing of information, better understanding and better decision-making.

Dominic Cummings leaving No 10 on 13 November.
Dominic Cummings leaving No 10 on 13 November. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Updated

The government’s Christmas travel tsar, Sir Peter Hendy, has told MPs he does not expect there to be overcrowding that prevents social distancing on public transport during the five-day Christmas window.

Giving evidence to the Commons transport committee, Hendy, who is also chair of Network Rail, said:

Market research suggests that ... 76% of people are not intending to travel and, of those that are, 80% are planning to travel by car, and ... actually quite a lot of that car travel will be on Christmas Day. And I think, as a consequence, we’re quite well placed for the public transport modes to operate, so far as long distance travel is concerned, entirely within social distancing because we can reserve it.

And as far as urban transport goes, I think, I think it isn’t likely to be much different from where it’s been in the past few months which is, in my observation at least, widespread adherence to social distancing rules ...

I’m not envisaging terrible scenes either in train stations, bus stations or elsewhere, of people breaking social distancing rules.

The statistics on travel plans quoted by Hendy appeared to be drawn from YouGov polling last week which found that the busiest day for outbound travel would be on Christmas Eve and the busiest day for return travel would be 27 December.

Hendy told the committee his message to the travelling public would be “be careful ... stay local if you can but the most important part of the message is to book public transport early”.

Updated

At the Scottish government briefing, Nicola Sturgeon also revealed what she described as a “one-off blip”, whereby an overnight upgrade configured Scotland’s contact-tracing app in an overly sensitive way, meaning that hundreds of people will have received notification to self-isolate when they don’t need to.

She said that around 900 notifications had been sent out, rather than the average of 250. She urged anyone who received a message from test and protect between 0.01am on Monday and 8.30am on Tuesday to call the contract-tracing centre for confirmation.

But Twitter suggests that contact tracers are simply telling individuals to “make their own judgment call”.

Updated

Johnson to hold press conference at 3.30pm

Boris Johnson is likely to be saying more about Christmas at a press conference he is holding at Downing Street at 3.30pm. Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, will also be attending.

Updated

UK to stick with relaxed Christmas Covid rules but nations split on guidance

At PMQs Boris Johnson implied that the four nations had agreed upon a joint position over Christmas in their talks this morning. He told MPs:

As of today that just this morning there is unanimous agreement across all the UK government, across all the devolved administrations – including members of all parties, including [Keir Starmer’s] own – that we should proceed in principle with the existing regulations because we don’t want to criminalise people’s long-made plans.

Subsequently it has emerged that this was a rather selective description of the situation. Although the legal framework allowing people a five-day limited exemption from normal Covid rules has not changed, the Scottish and Welsh governments have issued different guidance. Here is our latest story summing up the situation.

Updated

At his coronavirus briefing Mark Drakeford, the first minister of Wales, confirmed that further joint advice from the four nations would be published later covering Christmas. He said:

In the few short weeks since we made this decision, the situation has changed drastically as coronavirus has gripped. Later today, we will publish further joint advice across the UK, explaining that a smaller Christmas is a safer Christmas.

Here in Wales over the Christmas period the clear message from the Welsh government is that only two households should meet. That is how serious it is in Wales.

Pressed over whether this was a rule or advice, he said: “The message is the same.” He clarified that a single person household would be able to join two other households.

Drakeford denied there was “bickering” at the four nations meeting on the Christmas rules this morning. He said it was a “very sober reflection on the level of challenge we are facing.”

Explaining the decision to close non-essential retail businesses after the end of trading on Christmas Eve, Drakeford said:

The modelling does demonstrate that if we were to have a position in which large numbers of people come together for Boxing Day sales, then that’s another form of mixing.

But asked why hospitality was not being shut down now given the seriousness of the situation, he said:

There’s more than one form of harm from coronavirus.

We know that many people who live alone arrange their Christmas by booking a meal on Christmas Day, so that they can be in the company of other people.

I wanted to be able to honour that so that those people do not face an even bleaker Christmas, even more alone than they otherwise would be with all the other harms that come from that.

Everything we do is a balance between one form of harm and another. Allowing hospitality to continue to 6pm on Christmas Day protects the plans that people have made - particularly those who are lonely and isolated - and allows the industry itself to come to an orderly close.

Mark Drakeford.
Mark Drakeford. Photograph: Chris Fairweather/Huw Evans/REX/Shutterstock

The latest edition of the Guardian’s Politics Weekly podcast is out. For one moment, forget about the trouble with tiers, and bother with Brexit. Heather Stewart and Jessica Elgot look through their hypothetical crystal balls to delve into the many possibilities of what might have happened if a major political moment went another way. What if ... Gordon Brown had called an election in 2007? What if ... Cameron had won the referendum? And what if ... Scotland had voted yes to independence?

PMQs - Snap verdict

How bad does a government have to perform before it loses critical popular support? That is an interesting question at any time, a particularly pertinent one for the UK in 2020, and more germane than ever after Sir Keir Starmer used what will probably be the last PMQs of 2020 to hammer Boris Johnson over the flaws in his handling of the pandemic.

It was one of Starmer’s best performance for a while, and he put the case for the prosecution clearly and compellingly. As he said at one point:

This isn’t bad luck, it is not inevitable, it is a result of the prime minister’s choices. But if the prime minister disagrees with me, perhaps he can tell us why does he think that Britain, the 6th richest country in the world with all our brilliant scientists and amazing NHS, ends the year with one of the highest numbers of Covid deaths in Europe, over 64,000 - each one leaving a grieving family - and the deepest recession of any major economy?

And as Johnson tried to claim that the government had a strategy that was working, Starmer undercut him with some facts. “In three out of four tier 2 areas infections are going up. In over half of the tier 3 areas infections are going up, exactly the concern I put to the PM two weeks ago when he said just back us anyway,” he said.

Johnson has various response, some better than others, but none of them particularly persuasive. In response to Starmer’s opening question, he said that at the start of the pandemic he was following the advice of the scientists (which is broadly true, and should have been followed up with a question about why is is not doing so now). He boasted about the UK’s success medical successes. “Perhaps [Starmer] could tell me why it is that the UK is the first to produce a viable treatment for coronavirus in the form of dexamethasone, or the first country in the world to roll out a clinically-tested stage three vaccine?” He was probably at his strongest when criticising Starmer for attacking the planned rules for Christmas without being willing to say what he would advocate as an alternative. But Johnson also complained rather feebly about the opposition not being sufficiently supportive, which is normally the last line of defence when all others have failed.

All this was relatively familiar, and given this is probably the last PMQs of 2020, it’s worth asking whether finding it hard to defend his record is damaging Johnson electorally. If the polls are anything to go by, the answer is - only up to a point. Here are the figures from the Ipsos MORI December Political Monitor showing Johnson’s satisfaction ratings, compared to other prime ministers.

Prime ministers’ satisfaction ratings
Prime ministers’ satisfaction ratings Photograph: Ipsos MORI

Johnson’s standing has fallen a lot this year, but it is picking up recently (perhaps because of the news about the vaccine, perhaps because the departure of Dominic Cummings and Lee Cain has left No 10 less dysfunctional) and the mistakes made in the handling of the pandemic have not damaged the government to anything like the extent Black Wednesday banjaxed John Major.

Which begs the question why? There is a traditional view of electoral politics which says that administrations that govern well will be rewarded, and those that don’t will be voted out, but increasingly those who study these things have concluded that that’s not how it works. In Democracy for Realists, one of the best studies of this subject, Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels conclude:

The primary implication of our analyses of retrospective voting is that election outcomes are mostly just erratic reflections of the current balance of partisan loyalties in a given political system ... Elections are capricious collective decisions based on considerations that ought, from the viewpoint of the folk theory [the idea that elections are about rewarding performance], to be largely irrelevant.

This would explain why Starmer has made relative limited gains in the poll despite spending the best part of the pandemic exposing Johnson’s administrative failings so effectively. So what else can he do? His best moment at PMQs came when he weaponised Dominic Cummings.

While the prime minister and chancellor are telling the Armed Forces, police officers, care workers and fire fighters that they will get a pay freeze, Dominic Cummings has been handed at least a 40,000 pay rise. How on earth does the prime minister justify that?

This was the point at which Johnson seemed most vulnerable. Starmer does not always seem comfortable with personalised, aggressive mudslinging, but Tony Blair quite ruthlessly used sleaze against John Major (who by today’s standards ran a relatively honest and decent administration), and this might offer a way ahead for Starmer in 2021.

And for Johnson? At the start of 2020 he promised that 2020 would be “a fantastic year” for Britain. He ended his exchange with Starmer saying much the same about 2021. It’s easy to mock, but cheer and optimism is a large part of what has made him popular with voters and in 12 months time he will probably be making yet more extravagant promises for 2022.

Updated

Sturgeon says 'safest way to spend Christmas' is not to mix with other households

At her lunchtime media briefing, Nicola Sturgeon set out new Scottish government guidance on festive gatherings, telling the public “the reality is that this Christmas can’t be normal”.

She said that four nations discussions on Christmas relaxations were ongoing, and that she hoped there would be an agreement on a four nations basis. She emphasised that the reasoning behind the relaxation – that isolation at Christmas would cause harm, that some people would not be prepared to leave their loved ones alone and that it was better to give people clear boundaries – remained sound and that there was no intention to remove that flexibility.

We don’t intend to take away the flexibility, that would’t be fair and at this stage isn’t realistic but we do intend to strengthen the guidance we give to people about how they make use of the flexibility.

She said her government would be bringing out its own guidance later today - “which we hope will be agreed on a four nations basis” - but set out the following:

Unequivocally, the safest way to spend Christmas this year is within your own household and within your own home.

If you do consider it necessary to meet someone indoors from another household indoors, you should limit the time spent together, Sturgeon said: “The five-day period is a maximum not a target.”

If you do form a bubble you should not meet up for more than one day and not stay overnight, and keep it as small as possible – three households is the maximum but two is better, she said.

We will recommend against travel from high to low prevalence areas of the UK.

And if you do intend to form a Christmas bubble you should be trying to reduce social contact now.

If you are still swithering please decide against.

Updated

Seema Malhotra (Lab) asks how it can be right that a parent who has to stay away from work because a child is self-isolating is not eligible for the £500 payments.

Johnson says he appreciates the problem. He says the government will do its best to address it. But he suggests the roll-out of later flow testing (or rapid result testing) will provide the solution.

And that’s it. PMQs is over.

Updated

Brendan Clarke-Smith (Con) asks Johnson to congratulate a constituent who raised money for MND (motor neurone disease) research.

Johnson says MND is a terrible condition, and he supports the constituent.

John McNally (SNP) asks why the government is not doing more to support the bus building sector.

Johnson says he has caused more buses to be built (as mayor of London) than any other MP. He is committed to rolling out 4,000 zero-emission buses, he says.

Sharon Hodgson (Lab) says Centrica gas engineers in her constituency were told to sign new contracts or risk losing their jobs. She asks Johnson to condemn “fire and rehire” tactics.

Johnson says workers should be treated with respect. He agrees with Hodgson in that respect, he says. But he says he also sees the advantages of having a flexible labour market. He wants to continue with that, he says.

Johnson urges anyone offered the vaccine to take it.

Ronnie Cowan (SNP) asks if the PM supports using drug consumption rooms in Glasgow to help tackle the drug death problem there.

Johnson says he does not want to encourage more drug problems. He says most of the powers needed to tackle the problem are available to the Scottish government.

Wales to impose fresh Covid lockdown rules from Christmas Eve

Fresh lockdown measures are to be imposed in Wales beginning on Christmas Eve, the first minister, Mark Drakeford has announced.

All non-essential shops, plus leisure and fitness centres and close-contact services, will shut at the end of trading on Thursday 24 December.

Hospitality premises, including pubs and restaurants, will close from 6pm on Christmas Day.

On 28 December, tighter restrictions for household mixing, staying at home, holiday accommodation and travel will apply. This new set of “level 4” restrictions will apply to the whole of Wales.

The first minister also said:

Here in Wales, the advice of the Welsh government is that only two households should come together to form an exclusive Christmas bubble during the five-day period.

Drakeford said more than 2,100 people – equivalent to five full general hospitals – were in Welsh hospitals with Covid symptoms. The number of people in intensive care with coronavirus is at the highest level during this second wave – at 98.

Updated

Joy Morrissey (Con) asks about a growth plan for Buckinghamshire and asks him to back “this bold bid for Bucks”.

Johnson says the government has been discussing the plan with the council.

Liz Twist (Lab) asks about a pub in her Blaydon constituency, a wet pub with a live music tradition. She says the compensation available will not allow it to survive.

Johnson quotes support already available, but says the best thing would be for areas in tier 3 to reduce the virus through community testing.

Anthony Browne (Con) asks about school funding for Cambridgeshire. Will he be Santa?

Johnson says it is taxpayers who perform that role. He quotes figures for school spending.

Updated

Alex Norris (Lab) asks if the PM is still committed to building the eastern leg of HS2. Or is this another broken promise?

Johnson says the national infrastructure commission is saying other things can be done as well. But the ambition to build the eastern leg remains unchanged.

James Davies (Con) asks if the government will boost spending on the life sciences.

Johnson says the government is investing record sums in science R&D.

Johnson says the whole of the UK, including Northern Ireland, will participate in UK trade deals post Brexit.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, asks if the government will publish an economic impact assessment of Brexit.

Johnson says the UK will prosper after January, whether there is a deal or not.

Blackford says the government is imposing “economic vandalism” on Scotland.

Johnson says it is the SNP that poses a threat to the Scottish economy.

Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford holds briefing as Covid cases spike

You can follow the briefing from the Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford here

Starmer says Johnson is ignoring the medical experts. He says he often wonders where the PM gets his advice from. Now he nows; the official newsletter of the Wellinborough Conservative association. He quotes from it.

You say the first thing that comes into your head. It’ll probably be nonsense, but it knocks your opponent out of his stride and takes away his headline.

Starmer asks if Johnson is the author of this advice, or taking inspiration from it.

Johnson says what people want from Starmer is any sort of view at all. He says the government will deliver a great 2021.

Starmer says Johnson is just saying what he said in October. He says is it not smarmy lawyers criticising the Christmas plans; he says medical experts are warning of what might happen.

Johnson says Starmer is not prepared to say what he really wants, which is to cancel Christmas. He says this morning politicians from all parties, including Labour (ie, the Welsh government), agreed to keep the rules.

Starmer says Johnson is avoiding the issue. Cases are going up. Another problem is the loss of public trust. We all know the problem; the trip to Barnard Castle.And now we know that while public sector workers are getting a pay freeze, Dominic Cummings got a £40,000 pay freeze. How does the PM justify that?

Johnson says Starmer trivialises the matter. He says he is not accepting what the public have done. Starmer is one-club golfer. He can only recommend a lockdown. Then he criticises the impact, Johnson says.

Starmer says he was worried that tier 2 would not work. Rising case in tier 2 and some tier 3 regions have proved his point. He says Johnson said his plan would suppress the virus. But it is not. In half of tier 3 areas cases are going up. Does the PM not recognise that his latest plan has failed to control the virus and protect the NHS and the economy.

Johnson says Starmer does not have his own plan. Then he says Starmer was the mastermind of the Labour firebreak in Wales. He says the government will continue to roll out the vaccine and community testing. He says Labour should support those.

Starmer asks why Britain, the sixth richest country in the world, has one of the highest death tolls in Europe and the deepest recession.

Johnson says Starmer has changed his tune. Why is the UK the first country in the world to roll out a vaccine? He says he has taken the tough decisions to beat the virus. He says he would take Starmer’s decisions more seriously if Labour had been able to decide if it supported or opposed the tiering system.

Sir Keir Starmer asks if Johnson now accepts that his slowness to respond to the original outbreak led to more deaths, a longer lockdown and more economic damage.

Johnson says he does not. He was following the scientific advice, he says. He says rates in some areas are now coming down. We will defeat the virus with the vaccine, tough tiering and testing, he says. He says Starmer should support the government instead of “carping”.

Johnson says he is opposed to tightening rules for Christmas

Michael Fabricant (Con) says people have had a torrid year. They have a small break over Christmas. They need to be careful. But it would not be helpful if some “smarmy lawyer” (he is referring to Keir Starmer, presumably) were to call for the rules to be changed.

Johnson says Fabricant is right. People have to take care. Some things are going well, he says, quoting the vaccination figures. But transmission can be asymptomatic. But people should exercise extreme caution.

Boris Johnson starts by saying he has issued a written ministerial statement about the leak of the lockdown plans.

He wishes happy Christmas to members of the emergency services, healthcare workers, and others working over the holiday.

From Bloomberg’s Maria Tadeo

The BBC’s Nick Eardley says the four nations of the UK agreed not to tighten the rules for Christmas in their ministerial call this morning.

PMQs

PMQs is starting soon.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

For the first time in its 70-year history, Unicef has launched a domestic emergency response in the UK to help feed children hit by the Covid-19 crisis.

According to a report by Sky News, the UN agency responsible for providing humanitarian aid to children worldwide has likened the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on youngsters to that of the second world war.

In May, a YouGov poll commissioned by the charity Food Foundation found that 2.4 million children (17%) were living in food insecure households. And by October it said an extra 900,000 children had been registered for free school meals.

Unicef has now pledged a grant of £25,000 to the charity School Food Matters, which will use the money to supply 18,000 nutritious breakfasts to 25 schools over the two-week Christmas school holidays to help vulnerable children and families in Southwark, south London. Each box will provide enough food for 10 breakfasts.

Updated

A housing algorithm for England that would have increased building in the Conservatives’ rural heartlands has been dropped by the government after an outcry from its own MPs, my colleague Haroon Siddique reports.

Damian Green, the Conservative MP for Ashford and former cabinet minister, is among the Tories who has welcomed the news.

Brexit has left 4,000 sheep stuck in Scotland, the House of Lords has heard.

The Scottish black faced sheep were overwintering in Scotland but had been bought by Northern Ireland farming businesses in the autumn and were due to return to the region in the spring.

However strict new rules in the Northern Ireland protocol requiring sheep to come from holdings cleared for scrapie prevent the transfer, Helen Roberts, development officer at the National Sheep Association, told peers on the environment sub committee.

“It is quite a dilemma, because these rules have only just sort of come out,” Roberts told them.

They also heard concerns that “up to 20% of dairy products” could be deemed unfit for sale in the EU if there are delays at the ports post Brexit.

Peter Alvis, chairman of the Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers, told peers that short life cheese and other products were “not currently on the priority list” which is expected to include other products including “fish and chicks” - shellfish from Scotland and day-old chickens exported for egg farming in the EU.

The committee also heard of a national shortage of vets to sign off the health certs needed for cross border agrifood consignments.

The Scottish Seafood Association called on the government to pay for the health certs which cost £180 per consignment. A business with five customers would have to find nearly £1,000 per truck, Jimmy Buchan, CEO of the organisation, told peers.

Updated

Around one in five infected people may suffer from long Covid, says ONS

Around one in five people with coronavirus may go on to suffer long Covid, new data from the Office for National Statistics suggests.

As PA Media reports, for the first time the ONS has published figures examining long Covid, finding that a fifth of people have symptoms for five weeks or more while around one in 10 are affected for 12 weeks or more.

Overall, around 186,000 people in private households in England in the week beginning November 22 were living with Covid-19 symptoms that had persisted for between five and 12 weeks, the ONS said.

When looking at symptoms among people five weeks after testing positive for Covid-19, the ONS estimated that 11.5% of respondents were still experiencing fatigue, 11.4% had a cough and 10.1% had a headache. Some 8.2% were still experiencing a loss of taste while 7.9% still had a loss of smell. This chart gives more details.

Estimated prevalence of long Covid symptoms five weeks after infection
Estimated prevalence of long Covid symptoms five weeks after infection Photograph: ONS

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, arriving for a meeting at No 10 this morning.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, arriving for a meeting at No 10 this morning. Photograph: Alberto Pezzali/AP

Summary

Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, will give the Welsh government’s briefing at 12.15pm, instead of health officials who were due to appear, the Welsh government has announced.

Updated

Burnham claims many pubs and restaurants in Greater Manchester will never reopen if it stays in tier 3

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, told the Today programme this morning that he thought there was a “clear case” for his region to move from tier 3 to the less restrictive tier 2 in the review of England’s tiering allocations taking place today. He explained:

We have seen steady decreases across all of our boroughs pretty much ever since the last tiering decision, to the point where we are now essentially below the England average across the 10 boroughs - we are at 150 cases on average per 100,000 people, England averages 180.

We are below London and below Liverpool when they went into tier 2 originally.

I accept the national mood has changed since those decisions were taken and I can also understand if the Government were wanting to err on the side of caution.

There is a clear case for Greater Manchester, or a large part of Greater Manchester, to be placed in tier 2.

In a subsequent interview with Sky News, Burnham claimed that many pubs and restaurants in his region would never reopen if it stayed in tier 3. He said:

This review is probably not going to be repeated for another month, so whatever decisions are made today will be in place for a month. And if we get to mid January with Greater Manchester still in tier three, there’ll be plenty of pubs and restaurants that will never reopen.

The government is supposed to be reviewing tiering allocations at least every fortnight, and even weekly according to one ministerial promise, but Burnham seems to be assuming that the holiday period will hold up this process. He is also probably right in assuming that the government will not want to relax rules straight after Christmas until it knows what impact household mixing over the holidays has had.

Burnham may be disappointed by today’s decision. In his London Playbook briefing for Politico, Alex Wickham reports: “A government official tells Playbook they would be very surprised if anywhere goes down a tier, with most of the movement expected to be places going from tier 2 to tier 3.”

Andy Burnham.
Andy Burnham. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

The supreme court has overturned a February judgment that a third runway at Heathrow airport was illegal. It means the project can now seek planning permission, but the ultimate completion of the runway remains uncertain, my colleague Damian Carrington reports.

More than 137,000 people in UK vaccinated in first week, says minister

Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccine deployment minster, says more than 137,000 people in the UK have now been vaccinated since the roll-out started a week ago.

'Easter can be the new Christmas' - Jenrick urges cautious approach to holiday but confirms English rules not changing

Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is due to hold further talks with the leaders of the devolved administrations this morning about what rules will apply over Christmas but this morning at least we are getting clarity about what is happening in England.

Yesterday’s talks broke up without any conclusion, or any formal announcement from any of the four governments represented. But overnight Downing Street has been briefing that Boris Johnson is determined to let England carry on with the five-day exemption from normal social distancing rules announced last month - despite health experts, the opposition and some Tory MPs saying these temporary rules are too lax. “We’ve set out the rules, people know what they are, it would be wrong to change them this close to Christmas when people have made plans,” a government source told the Daily Telegraph.

This morning Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, confirmed that. He told Sky News: “Our position is clear that the legal framework will continue.” The means the rules for Christmas for England, which have been enshrined in law, won’t change.

But Jenrick indicated that government guidance is changing. When the joint four nation approach to Christmas was agreed in November, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, and Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, both stressed that it would be safer for families not to use the freedom to mix up to three households for five days that they were being allowed by law. UK ministers were generally more upbeat and less cautious, but now UK government messaging over Christmas is being Sturgeonised.

This is what Jenrick told Sky News:

We all need to use our own personal judgment thinking about our own families whether we have particularly elderly or clinically vulnerable relatives who might be round the Christmas table and also looking at the fact that the rates of the virus are rising in many parts of the country.

Our position is clear that the legal framework will continue but because the infection is rising in many parts of the country, because we can see these international examples like Thanksgiving, it is incumbent on each every family across the country this morning and in the days ahead to have that conversation round the breakfast table, ‘Is this right for our family?’

This is a virus that thrives on social interaction so bringing more people together, even over this short period of time, is not cost-free. It will have consequences in terms of increasing the rate. It will rise.

Jenrick also suggested that families could put off big gatherings until the next major holiday. But he put it more pithily, saying:

Easter can be the new Christmas.

The government plans to publish data on the number of people who have had Covid-19 vaccines as early as next week, PA Media reports. PA understands that agreement is currently being sought with the devolved nations to ensure any data presented is consistent across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It comes after government officials would not be drawn on how many doses of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine are due to arrive in the UK and on what schedule.

From the Sun’s Nick Gutteridge

Tony Connelly, RTE’s Europe editor, says Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, was appealing to the European parliament to show some flexibility this morning. The parliament would have to approve a UK-EU trade deal.

Because there is so little time, even if there is a deal, it may have to be applied provisionally, which would involve the European council agreeing to allow it to come into force from 1 January before the normal ratification process has concluded. (This Institute for Government briefing explains the process in more detail.) But the European parliament has asked for this not to happen because effectively it would sideline MEPs, who would find it hard to veto an agreement already in force.

From Sky’s Europe correspondent Adam Parsons

Summary of Von der Leyen's comments to MEPs on UK-EU trade talks

Here are the main points from Ursula von der Leyen’s comments to MEPs about the UK-EU trade talks.

  • Von der Leyen, the president of the European commission, said she thought a “path to an agreement” now existed. (See 8.56am.)
  • She said the two sides had made progress on state aid. She said:

First, on the level playing field: our aim is simply to ensure fair competition on our own market, very simple. This is why we need to establish robust mechanisms. The architecture we’re working on rests on two pillars: state aid and standards.

On state aid we have made progress, based on common principles, guarantees of domestic enforcement, and the possibility to autonomously remedy the situation where needed.

  • She said there had been “a big step forward” on standards.

On standards we have agreed a strong mechanism of non-regression: that’s a big step forward. That’s to ensure that our common high labour, social, and environmental standards will not be undercut. Of course, difficulties still remain on the question of how to really future-proof fair competition.

  • She said “issues linked to governance by now are largely being resolved”.
  • But she said disagreement about fisheries could still prevent a deal being agreed. She said:

On fisheries the discussion is still very difficult. We do not question the UK’s sovereignty on its own waters, but we ask for predictability and stability for our fishermen and fisherwomen.

In all honesty it sometimes feels like we will not be able to resolve this question, but we must continue to try and find a solution, and it is the only responsible and right course of action.

  • She said the next few days would be decisive.

The next days are going to be decisive, and I know I have said this before, and I know deadlines have been missed time and again. The clock puts us all in a very difficult situation, not least this parliament and its right to exercise democratic scrutiny and application.

Updated

Ursula von der Leyen says 'path to agreement' between UK and EU now exists

Good morning. Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, has been addressing the European parliament this morning and she was notably positive about the prospects of the UK and the EU agreeing a trade deal. There was a “path to an agreement”, she said. She told them:

As things stand I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you that there is a path to an agreement now. The path may be very narrow, but it is there, and it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying.

The good news is that we have found a way forward on most issues, but this is now case of us being so close and yet being so far away from each other, because two issues now remain outstanding, you know them: the level playing field and the fisheries.

I will post more from her speech shortly. The Independent’s Jon Stone has posted the full quotes on Twitter.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: The ONS is due to publish figures on the prevalence of long Covid.

Morning: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, resumes a call with the leader of the devolved administrations about the rules for Christmas.

12pm: Boris Johnson faces Sir Keir Starmer at PMQs.

12.15pm: Dr Andrew Goodall, chief executive of NHS Wales, and Judith Paget, chief executive of Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, hold a Welsh government coronavirus briefing.

12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon holds her regular Scottish government coronavirus briefing.

Ministers are also meeting today to review the tiering arrangements for England. We may get an announcement about any changes, although it could be delayed until tomorrow.

Politics Live is now doubling up as the UK coronavirus live blog and, given the way the Covid crisis eclipses everything, this will continue for the foreseeable future. But we will be covering non-Covid political stories too, like Brexit, and when they seem more important or more interesting, they will take precedence.

Here is our global coronavirus live blog.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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