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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Kevin Rawlinson

May wins key customs union vote by six after surprise Brexit loss on medicines agency – as it happened

Anti-Brexit protesters outside the Houses of Parliament.
Anti-Brexit protesters outside the Houses of Parliament. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Evening summary

As I mentioned, we’re going to close this live blog down now. If you want to read more, here’s our lead story:

Here’s a brief summary of the day’s events:

  • Theresa May has narrowly survived a rebellion by her own MPs over her approach to the Brexit negotiations. According to reports, sources had suggested defeat would have triggered a vote of confidence and, potentially, a general election.
  • The government did lose a less crucial vote on an amendment tabled by the Tory MP, Philip Lee. It requires the government to negotiate an agreement for the UK participate in the European medicines regulatory network partnership between the EU. While the government did not accept the amendment, ministers later said they believed it was consistent with May’s position.
  • Vote Leave, the official Brexit campaign during the referendum, was fined and reported to the police by the Electoral Commission. The watchdog found “significant evidence” of coordination with another campaign group, BeLeave, prompting some to call for a rerun of the whole referendum.
  • Labour was embroiled in a growing row over its refusal to adopt the full International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition of anti-semitism – with all its examples. The Labour MP, Margaret Hodge, who is Jewish, launched a vicious attack on the party’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, in the Commons towards the end of the day’s business.
  • The Tory party chairman was accused of failing to respect an agreement that would nullify a rival MP’s inability to attend a crucial vote because she is on maternity leave. Brandon Lewis turned out to vote when it looked like the government might lose, despite promises made to the Lib Dem MP, Jo Swinson, that he wouldn’t as part of a non-binding, though widely acknowledged, parliamentary convention.
  • The former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, came for breaking the ministerial code. He flouted rules that prevent former cabinet ministers taking up new jobs for three months after leaving office.

I leave the last word of the evening to my colleague, Jessica Elgot:

And a late entry (since we’ll be closing down this blog soon):

My colleagues, Heather Stewart and Jessica Elgot, have filed a story on the anti-semitism that has erupted once again within the Labour party:

Jeremy Corbyn has been accused of being an antisemite by a senior Labour MP during an angry public confrontation in parliament on Tuesday, after the party’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) refused to ditch a controversial new code of conduct on antisemitism.

The decision infuriated Jewish leaders and many of the party’s MPs, who had voted overwhelmingly on Monday night to urge the NEC to change course.

Margaret Hodge, the former chair of the public accounts committee, approached Corbyn behind the Speaker’s chair as MPs took part in a series of knife-edge votes on Brexit on Tuesday.

Witnesses said she called Corbyn a ‘fucking antisemite’, and accused him of racism. ‘She went to him and he just stood there and took it. She was furious’, one Labour MP said.

I’ve just bumped into the Tory party chair, Brandon Lewis, at the House of Commons. He told me he was slipped for the trade bill votes earlier in the afternoon because he was busy in meetings at No 10. He said the whips mistakenly sent him a message asking him to come and vote in the crunch ones, so he did as requested.

When I asked whether he would be sending Jo Swinson a bunch of flowers to apologise, he suggested that the party’s chief whip, Julian Smith, would be getting in touch with the Lib Dem MP instead.

Lewis has also responded to Swinson on Twitter in similar terms:

The Tory MP, Sarah Wollaston, who has opposed the government’s Brexit stance, is offering her support to the Lib Dem deputy leader, Jo Swinson after the chairman of the Conservative party, Brandon Lewis, broke a pairing agreement today:

MPs of other hues are also criticising the Conservatives. Whitehall sources have reportedly insisted it was a “mistake”.

Meanwhile, a report is emerging that a Jewish Labour MP has taken issue with the party’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, in the most strident of terms:

The party is riven with divisions over its new anti-semitism guidelines, which does not include all the examples listed alongside the internationally accepted International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of the term.

Labour has said the code contextualises and expands on the examples in the IHRA definition.

Earlier, we confirmed that Jo Swinson’s claim that Brandon Lewis voted only in the day’s two most critical divisions for the government – abstaining from all the rest – was factually accurate.

Now, the Times’ deputy political editor, Sam Coates, says he did so by mistake:

Swinson frames the issue as one about the government’s approach to maternity leave as a whole and calls for an end to the “charade” surrounding pairing.

It should perhaps be noted that the government has already cancelled plans to have MPs vote on disbanding parliament early.

More from Swinson:

In a narrow, factual sense at least, she is absolutely right: Brandon Lewis voted only in the two most crucial divisions today.

However:

Updated

A quite astonishing claim: The Lib Dem MP, Jo Swinson, who gave birth recently, says the government went back on an agreement to pair her up with another MP.

Under the convention, MPs of opposing parties are “paired up” when one is unable to vote, so that their absence will not affect the result of the vote. It must be noted that Parliament says pairing is an “informal arrangement, which is not recognised by the House of Commons but must be registered with the whips. Pairing is not allowed in divisions of great political importance”.

Nevertheless, the government will be facing questions about its conduct if it is true it agreed to follow the convention.

Brandon Lewis did vote with the government on the critical amendment.

Updated

The Tory Brexiter, Nadine Dorries, accused pro-EU MPs in her own party of playing a “dangerous game” that could have brought down the government today.

If Labour rebels hadn’t stepped in tonight, our own 12 remain rebels would have lost us that vote.

In that case, the third reading of the Trade Bill would have been “pulled”, with a confidence vote called tomorrow, she said.

Tory infighting, but unlikely to be of the variety the Labour leadership will be especially pleased to see. Meanwhile, the Labour MEP, Richard Corbett, has had his say on his party colleagues’ actions in the UK parliament:

Updated

As was pointed out earlier, the government does not consider its defeat over the Philip Lee amendment to be overly significant. A spokesperson has said:

As set out in the White Paper, the UK is seeking participation in the European Medicines Agency.

We would look to be an active participant and this would involve making an appropriate financial contribution. We will now reflect on this amendment and seek to revisit in the Lords.

Phillip Lee, who led the rebellion over post-Brexit medicines regulation, declares himself pleased MPs accepted his amendment, saying: “Securing new drugs for patients on the NHS I think is in the best interests of my country.”

He said the fact the customs union measure was pushed to a vote was “a direct reaction to yesterday’s events”, when measures backed by members of the hard Brexit-supporting Tory backbench European Research Group were accepted by the government.

Yesterday, amendments were adopted that were not consistent with that white paper. Today, there was an amendment placed that was consistent with the white paper that had an added insurance policy in it that if things don’t work out well we stay within a customs union.

I’m confident in asserting that, at all times, I have had the best interests of my country, my government and the prime minister at heart.

The Conservative former education secretary, Nicky Morgan, rebelled against the government this afternoon. She explains why:

The Tory MP, Antoinette Sandbach, one of those who backed the customs union amendment, has suggested the House of Lords could reinsert the measure.

The Bill now goes to the House of Lords. I think it was a sensible, proportionate amendment, it was a very narrow victory for the government. I want a sensible pragmatic Brexit.

Following the government’s narrow customs union victory, the Liberal Democrats’ Brexit spokesperson, Tom Brake, said:

The passing of this deeply flawed bill can’t mask the profound splits at the heart of the Tory party.

With the Tory government’s Chequers negotiating strategy in tatters before Brussels has even had a chance to respond, it is hard to see the UK signing independent trade deals anytime soon.

Instead of leaping into the dark at a time of deepening global insecurity, we should be protecting the more than 60 free trade agreements we already benefit from as members of the EU.

That is why the Liberal Democrats are campaigning for the public to have the final say on the Brexit deal, with the option to exit from Brexit.

The party was criticised yesterday after it emerged its leader, Vince Cable, and former leader, Tim Farron, did not vote for amendments on which the government only narrowly won. Both voted this time round.

The government has not moved a motion to bring forward the summer recess for MPs, meaning no vote will take place.

Updated

The Labour MP, Chuka Umunna, hits out at the four Brexiters in his party who helped Theresa May avoid a humiliating reverse over the customs union vote.

It’s very disappointing and our communities will question why Labour MPs are jeopardising jobs.

Umunna said he was “delighted” the government suffered a defeat in the earlier over post-Brexit medicines regulations.

There was at least something of a show of strength in the face of ERG Brextremists.

4 Labour MPs, and 1 ex-Labour independent, who voted with government on customs union

And here are the four Labour MPs, and one suspended from Labour, who voted with the government on the customs union.

That’s all from me for today. My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is taking over now.

Updated

12 Tories who rebelled on customs union amendment

And here are the 12 Conservatives who voted with the opposition on the customs union amendment. Eleven of them are the same as the people who rebelled on the Phillip Lee amendment, but Guto Bebb voted for the customs union one but not Lee’s, and Jeremy Lefroy voted for Lee’s but not the custom union one.

12 Tories who rebelled on medicines agency amendment

Here is the list of Conservative MPs who voted with the opposition on Phillip Lee’s amendment, NC17. There were 12 of them.

Heidi Allen

Ken Clarke

Jonathan Djanogly

Dominic Grieve

Stephen Hammond

Phillip Lee

Jeremy Lefroy

Nicky Morgan

Bob Neill

Antoinette Sandbach

Anna Soubry

Sarah Wollaston

Updated

This is from Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary.

Here is some comment on the result.

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From Newsnight’s Nick Watt

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

Here is Labour on the result.

May averts defeat on customs union with majority of six

The government has won by 307 votes to 301 - a majority of six.

Sky’s Beth Rigby points out that the government will not be too bothered by the defeat on the Phillip Lee amendment.

This is from Newsnight’s Nick Watt.

Here is the text of the Phillip Lee amendment that is now part of the trade bill, after the government was defeated.

Phillip Lee amendment - NC17
Phillip Lee amendment - NC17 Photograph: Parliament

Updated

MPs are now voting on the key customs union amendment - new clause 18. (See 11.25am.)

The fact that Theresa May lost on the Phillip Lee amendment (exquisite revenge for someone who resigned over the EU withdrawal bill, but was made to look a little foolish when the government compromised only hours later) suggests the government will lose this vote too.

Updated

Government loses Brexit votes as MPs backing keeping UK in EU medicines network

The government has lost the vote on Phillip Lee’s amendment, saying the government should have to negotiate an agreement for the UK participate in the European medicines regulatory network partnership between the EU. (See 5.46pm) The amendment was passed by 305 votes to 301 - a majority of four.

This is only the second government defeat in the Commons on Brexit.

Updated

This is from @ParlyApp’s Tony Grew.

Labour’s Chuka Umunna is saying the same thing.

This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.

MPs are now voting on new clause 17, the Phillip Lee amendment. (See 5.46pm.)

The government has voted down the Labour amendment 80, about the membership of the trade remedies authority, by 314 votes to 295 - a majority of 19.

And this is what Nicky Morgan, the former Conservative education secretary, said in her speech earlier. (See 5.59pm.)

The prime minister did the right thing by putting on the table a workable, practical proposal, captured at Chequers, which could be negotiated with the EU. Members of these benches chose to try to scupper that agreement and those proposals yesterday. Some of us tried to stop them. Sadly we failed. What is proposed in new clause 18, and I’m delighted to join [Stephen Hammond] in proposing this, is something that is eminently sensible. We give the prime minister space for those negotiations. But it is very clear that in this House there is a majority for a customs union to safeguard business and jobs and the financial interests of our constituents in the future.

I’ve beefed up the earlier post at 5.43pm, covering the Stephen Hammond/George Hollingbery exchanges (fascinating - they were negotiating in real time, on the floor of the chamber) with direct quotes. To get them to show up, you may need to refresh the page.

MPs are now voting on amendment 80, a Labour amendment about the membership of the trade remedies authority.

This is from the Daily Express’s David Maddox.

This is from the Times’ Patrick Kidd.

Nicky Morgan, the Conservative pro-European, says Theresa May put forward a practical proposal at Chequers. Yesterday the European Research Group tried to scupper that. She is backing NC18, she says.

Labour’s Emma Reynolds says, if Redwood is right, why do firms like Jaguar Land Rover and Airbus say it is so important to have frictionless trade. She says, if the UK wants to maintain just-in-time manufacturing, it has to stay in the customs union.

John Redwood, the Conservative Brexiter, says UK manufacturers already manage perfectly well even though they have to import some of their components from outside the EU. He says we live “in the modern world”. Firms can use technology to comply with border controls. People are not willing to accept ongoing control by the EU.

Labour’s Chris Leslie says NC17 (see 5.46pm) should be a “no brainer”.

He says NC18 is “incredibly generous” to the government, because it is giving it the benefit of the doubt.

Ken Clarke, the former chancellor and Tory pro-European, says he does not see why the government is leaving the customs union. He is prepared to give the government’s white paper a chance, he says.

But he says yesterday he was “astonished” the government whipped its MPs to support Jacob Rees-Mogg in a way that went counter to its own white paper.

He says NC18 is consistent with the white paper. He says the government is only opposing it because it is terrified of papers like the Daily Mail.

Phillip Lee says he will also be voting for NC18. He says:

I think yesterday was the worst experience in politics I’ve had in eight years and I am sorry that it [has] changed the dynamic. I started the week intending to support our prime minister in her deal and the white paper.

Yesterday changed that and that is why I will be supporting other colleagues on these benches with regards to new clause 18 this evening.

Updated

Sky’s Beth Rigby is also picking up a lot of confidence from the Tory pro-European rebels.

Here are the votes coming up at 6pm.

The key one comes last, which means that we will find out whether Theresa May has won or lost at around 6.45pm.

Phillip Lee, who resigned as a justice minister ahead of a crunch vote on the EU withdrawal bill, is speaking now. He has tabled his own amendment to the trade bill, new clause 17 (NC17), saying the government should have to negotiate “an international agreement through which the UK may continue to participate in the European medicines regulatory network partnership between the EU”.

He says:

This is vital because that is how we get our people and our NHS the medicines they need, it is also important for our pharmaceutical sector.

The European medicines regulatory network partnership makes the process of accessing life saving new medicines and moving medicines quick and easy. If we leave that partnership the NHS would get ground breaking new drugs like those for cancer, dementia and diabetes long after other parts of the world.

Updated

Leading Tory rebel rejects last-minute compromise offer from government as May faces defeat

Stephen Hammond says new clause 18 is exactly in line with the government’s Brexit white paper.

It says there should be frictionless trade, he says.

George Hollingbery, the international trade minister, says the government will table an amendment in the Lords.

It will take in “the essence of new clause 18 but removes the defective element relating to the customs union”.

Instead it will refer to a customs arrangement.

In recognition of contribution made by him and other members today it is my intention to bring forward an amendment in the other place that takes in the essence of new clause 18 but removes the defective elements relating to the customs union.

The government amendment will restate our intention to establish a customs arrangement with the European Union.

Hammond says that is a “generous offer from the front bench, and one that I’m tempted to accept”.

But he says he will make an alternative offer: the government should accept his amendment, and amend it in the Lords.

Let’s do this the other way round, I’ll make you a generous offer. Why don’t you accept new clause 18 today and then amend it in the Lords.

Hammond says NC18 is “entirely in line” with the government’s objectives.

He says, if he has used any other word than “union”, the government would have accepted this.

This does not undermine the bill.

Hollingbery says it is government policy not to remain in the customs union. That is why it cannot accept the amendment. The UK would still be bound by the common commercial policy; it would not be able to do trade deal.

Hammond says the Tory manifesto said the UK was leaving the customs union.

He says his amendment refers to a customs union.

He asks Hollingbery again to accept the amendment.

  • Government offers Tory pro-Europeans a compromise amendment in the Lords, involving “the essence” of the rebel amendment but taking out the reference to staying in a customs union.
  • Stephen Hammond, the pro-European leading today’s rebellion, refuses the government offer. He says, if the government wants to compromise, it should accept his amendment and then alter it in the Lords.

Updated

Stephen Hammond, the Conservative MP who tabled NC18, is speaking now.

He says the EU referendum did not tell parliament how to leave the EU. He says the common market principles are the best way to do this.

He says his new clause 9 (NC9) says the UK should stay in the EEA and join Efta after Brexit. EEA/Efta is a model that is tested, that is off-the-shelf.

But the white paper sets out a different plan. He says he wants to ensure that can move forward.

Judith Cummins, the shadow international trade minister, is speaking now. She says Labour is supporting NC18 because it keeps open the option of having a long-term customs union with the EU (which is Labour policy).

She says Labour does not think the EU will agree to the customs policy set out in the white paper, the facilitated customs arrangement.

If that fails, NC18 would ensure that at that point the government had to back a customs union, she says.

George Hollingbery, the international trade minister, opens the debate. He explains various technical government amendments that have been tabled. He does not refer to new clause 18 (NC18). (See 11.25am.)

MPs are now staring the debate on the third group of amendments.

This is the group that includes the customs union amendment tabled by Tory pro-Europeans. (See 11.25am.)

The SNP amendment was defeated by 318 votes to 37 - a majority of 281.

Tory rebels optimistic they can defeat government on customs union ahead of key Brexit vote

This is from my colleague Pippa Crerar.

Updated

MPs are now voting on amendment 25, an SNP amendment that would stop regulations being made under a section of the bill without the approval of devolved ministers.

It is the fifth vote of the day.

The government has voted down the Labour amendment, NC4 (see 4.19pm) by 316 votes to 248 - a majority of 68.

Sir John Major, the Conservative former prime minister, has told ITV News that the Tory Brexiters are “more committed and hardline” than the Eurosceptics who disrupted his government in the 1990s.

In other words, without using the same language, he is telling Theresa May that her bastards are worse than his bastards.

Anna Soubry says she has had an apology from fellow Tory Sir Edward Leigh for what he said about her not being Margaret Thatcher in the customs bill debate yesterday.

These are the two votes coming now. The first, on NC4, is already underway.

This is from the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford.

MPs are now voting on new clause 4. (See 4.19am.)

The key vote after 6pm will be on a customs union amendment tabled by Stephen Hammond, the MP for Wimbledon and one of the 15 or so Tories who in the past have either explicity or implicitly backed longterm customs union membership.

The pro-Brexit Guido Fawkes blog has this afternoon published what it says is the text of a leaked email Hammond sent to other pro-European Tories suggesting that, if the cabinet backed a deal including “continued economic alignment” at Chequers (as it subsequently did), the pro-Europeans would not push amendments to the trade bill to a vote.

Here is an excerpt from the email.

The PM has our support if the cabinet resolves a proposal which not only allows continued economic alignment but that the cabinet must also agree the backstop arrangement. The proposal must be one that the EU will say shows progress and are likely to welcome. No more time nor political capital can be spent on foolish Brexiteer schemes.

If the cabinet can’t agree this then we will force a solution in trade bill and the customs cill. The only reason a compromise was accepted on meaningful vote was because it delivered what we wanted and we wanted to give the PM the space she asked for at the council. That council has now gone and no one should be under any illusion that we will vote against the government if necessary, as happened in December.

Commenting on this, the Guido Fawkes website says it “shows the dishonesty of the remainers, claiming that the ERG [European Research Group] s controlling the government when it is they who have been coordinating threats to force Number 10 into a non-Brexit.”

The email was sent to 22 Tory MPs (and one PA, Debbie Sugg). Including Hammond, that makes a list of 23 Conservatives who could all be potential rebels on the customs union.

This is from the Financial Times’ Jim Pickard.

MPs are now starting the debate on the second group of amendments, which relate to devolution. Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, is opening. He is moving new clause 4, which would ensure that UK ministers making regulations under this bill affecting devolved administrations would need the approval of devolved ministers.

In the Commons Labour’s Toby Perkins raises a point of order and asks if the speaker knows anything about the whereabouts of Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, who Perkins says was tweeting about being the only person fighting Brexit this morning but was not in the Commons to vote last night. The Lib Dem Tom Brake responds by making another point of order, asking if the speaker knows of the whereabouts of Jeremy Corbyn, who Brake says has been absent for two years in the fight against Brexit.

The government has defeated the Labour amendment (see 4.05pm) by 315 votes to 285 - a majority of 30.

According to the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford, the government is holding one-to-one meetings with Tory pro-Europeans to try to stop them rebelling on the customs union amendment (see 11.25am) later.

MPs are now on their third vote, on amendment 19, a Labour one that would prevent the government making regulations in connection with trade deals before the text of the deal has been put out to consultation.

According to the Daily Mail, Boris Johnson has broken Whitehall rules by not consulting the advisory committee on business appointments before taking up a job as a Telegraph columnist after resigning as foreign secretary.

Johnson published his first column on Monday (paywall). The general consensus was that it was a bit dull. It was all about “global Britain”, the concept he promoted when he was foreign secretary that the Commons foreign affairs committee criticised as no more than a “worthy aspiration” and in danger of being just a “superficial branding exercise”.

The government has defeated the SNP amendment by 316 votes to 37 - a majority of 279.

This is how Labour describes the SNP amendment. (See 3.46pm.)

MPs are now voting on new clause 20, an SNP amendment that would ensure that negotiating mandates for new trade deals have to be approved by the devolved authorities.

The government has voted down the Caroline Lucas amendment by 314 votes to 284 - a majority of 30.

MPs are now holding the first of what will be a series of votes today (see 2.23pm) on the trade bill.

This one is on new clause 3, an amendment tabled by the Green MP Caroline Lucas saying the government could not open talks on new trade deals unless the Commons has agreed the negotiating mandate. Many Labour, SNP and Lib Dem MPs have signed it too.

According to the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford, Sajid Javid, the home secretary, told Theresa May at cabinet that it was a mistake proposing to send MPs off on their summer recess on Thursday, not Tuesday next week.

Doubtless Javid will be mortified to learn that his comments have made it into the public domain.

I’m not sure he is right to say that there is government business to be done in the Commons early next week. Much of the parliamentary timetable has been very light this year (the government is worried about defeats), and nothing important has been publicly scheduled for Monday and Tuesday next week. These are from the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.

What MPs said about the Vote Leave referendum overspending revelations

Here are some of the best quotes from the urgent question earlier on the revelations about Vote Leave overspending in the Brexit referendum.

Dr Sarah Wollaston, the Conservative chair of the Commons health committee and the Commons liaison committee, said the referendum should be re-run. She said:

We are talking about deliberate cheating, and this money going to a firm which used highly sophisticated targeted, Facebook advertising. And in a quote since removed from the AggregateIQ website, Vote Leave campaign director Dominic Cummings says, ‘We couldn’t have done it without them.’ Dominic Cummings, who will not appear before select committees, having claimed during the campaign that he wanted to restore the sovereignty of parliament, runs away from accountability himself.

Consequences must follow. We cannot have confidence that this referendum was secure and it should be re-run.

Anna Soubry, the pro-European Conservative former minister, said there was mounting evidence that Russia intervened in the referendum. She said:

These are serious matters. They go to the heart of government and they go to the heart of democracy and the trust that people must have in the democratic process.

There are not only concerns about the overspend, there are concerns about the source of the money. And the evidence is mounting - it is clearly there - that another country, let’s be honest, Russia, exercised its influence to undermine this country’s democracy and indeed this country’s security, as they have a long history of doing.

Sir Nicholas Soames, the Conservative former minister and grandson of Winston Churchill, said Britain was now a “diminished” country that needed to completely overhaul its electoral system. He said:

One of the great glories of this sadly now diminished country was our electoral and democratic system, and this example today is gross.

And I say to her [Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith that if we are to retain the integrity and the trust of the voting public, the whole damn thing needs to be blown up and started all over again.

The SNP’s Tommy Sheppard said ministers involved in Vote Leave (like Michael Gove, the environment secretary) should be sacked. He said:

I’d like an assurance from the minister now that anyone who was involved in working for Vote Leave or on its board will cease to hold office in government or cease to be on the government payroll.

David Lammy, the Labour former minister, said the government should declare the result of the referendum void. He said:

Can the government declare this referendum void on the basis of the evidence that we’ve been provided by the Electoral Commission, and if not, given this was an advisory referendum by this Parliament, can she bring forward the vote in this parliament to declare this referendum void?

Labour’s Chuka Umunna suggested the Vote Leave overspending may have affected the referendum result.

Given there was a 4% gap between Leave and Remain, and Vote Leave overspent by just under 8%, does the minister agree with me that we cannot say with confidence that this foul play did not impact on the result?

Chris Matheson, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, said Theresa May should sack her political secretary, Stephen Parkinson, for his role in the affair. Matheson said:

What was the response of those involved? They outed one of those whistleblowers as gay without his permission and therefore put him and his family at risk. One of the people responsible for this outing was working as a senior adviser in Downing Street. The prime minister refused to sack him so presumably she supports or at least excuses these monstrous actions. Will she now on the back of this report dismiss him as an adviser?

Turning back to the Vote Leave story for a moment, on the World at One Shahmir Sanni, the BeLeave activist-turned-whistleblower, said he thought the Vote Leave donation to BeLeave did affect the impact of the Brexit referendum. When asked if it had an effect, he said:

Of course it did. This is the single largest donation Vote Leave made in the entire referendum.

But Kate Hoey, the Labour MP who supported leave, said the overspending did not compensate for the extra money the government was allowed to spend backing remain. She said:

Even if they spent half a million pounds over, the government put in £9m of a leaflet that went right round every doorstep ...

If you’re really telling me that you think the decision of the British people would have been different if that amount of money had not been spent then I just think that’s ridiculous.

Updated

George Hollingbery, the international trade minister, is opening the debate.

At this stage MPs are debating a group of amendments relating to the scrutiny of new international trade agreements.

The amendments have been put into three groups, with votes at 3.30pm, 5pm and 6pm. The key customs union amendment, NC18 (see 11.25am), comes in the third group, which means the debate on it will start after 5pm.

Judging from Hollingbery’s speech, the amendments in the first group do not seem massively exciting.

MPs debate trade bill

MPs are now staring the trade bill debate.

First, they have to move the programme motion. The government seems to expect this to go through on the nod, but Ken Clarke, the Tory pro-European, stands up to say he thinks the time set aside for today’s debate is far too short. He says the programme motion does not allocate fixed amounts of time for debate; it just sets fixed time for the votes (3.30pm, 5pm and 6pm for the various groups of amendments, and 7pm for the third reading.)

Clarke says control over time used to be one of parliament’s great weapons. And he says it is not as if MPs don’t have the time to debate these amendments properly; the House is not dealing with much other business, he says.

John Bercow, the speaker, says the programme motion is not a matter for him. But he says, as speaker, he will do everything he can to facilitate the votes that MPs want. He says he will not allow that to be constrained.

(In other words, Bercow is saying, just because the government allocates a limited amount of time for debate, that won’t stop him calling a fair number of amendments and putting them to a vote.)

Sir John Curtice, the leading psephologist, has posted a very interesting blog on his What Uk Thinks website about public opinion and the government’s Chequers Brexit plan. On the basis of what polls are saying, he says four key points are now clear. As he puts it, they are:

1 - The Chequers agreement is relatively unpopular among leave voters.

2 - The Chequers agreement has undermined confidence in the government’s handling of Brexit – and especially so among leave voters

3 - Chequers has undermined the association in voters’ minds between the Conservatives and a hard Brexit.

4 - Voters have not changed their minds about the merits of remain vs leave or a hard versus a soft Brexit.

And here is Curtice’s conclusion.

For the most part it seems that voters have been evaluating Chequers by asking how well it matches up to their existing preferences, rather than asking themselves whether it gives them reason to revaluate those preferences. And the problem for the government is that many Leave voters appear to have decided that the agreement fails to meet their expectations. As a result, it is in effect is being disowned by some of the very voters whose electoral instructions the government is meant to be implementing. Moreover, those voters do not just think that the prime minister has been incompetent in developing her Brexit stance but rather they are also having doubts about whether the government is in favour of the kind of Brexit they want in the first place. Meanwhile, Mrs May is getting little or no credit from remain voters for developing a stance that might be thought to be rather softer than they might once have anticipated.

Meanwhile, we have to bear in mind, as last week’s British Social Attitudes report confirmed, that the 2017 electorate left the Conservatives with a predominantly pro-Leave (and thus pro-hard Brexit) electorate. Maybe as many as 70% of those who voted Conservative in 2017 had been leave supporters the year before. Leave voters are then, above all, a group that the Conservatives need to keep on board during the Brexit process. There are already signs that Chequers has caused some of them to reevaluate their support for the Conservatives. Support for the party is down by four points in the latest polls as compared with the same polls before Chequers, enough for the Conservatives to fall behind Labour in the popularity stakes. Meanwhile, Ukip, hitherto seemingly dormant, has seen its support double from 3% to 6%. It is not just in parliament that the prime minister is under pressure from her Brexiteers.

Sir John Curtice
Sir John Curtice Photograph: Martin Hunter for the Guardian

MPs are now on points of order in the Commons. Sir Christopher Chope says there is a rumour that tonight the government may not move the motion for the Commons recess to start on Thursday instead of Tuesday as planned, effectively shelving the whole idea.

Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem chief whip, has issued a statement saying it was his fault that Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, and Tim Farron, the former leader, were not in the Commons last night to vote in the two divisions which the government won with majorities of just three.

And Tim Farron has issued this apology.

Adam Wagner, the lawyer and legal commentator, has posted a good Twitter thread explaining why the referendum result cannot be legally challenged on the basis of the overspending revelations. It starts here

And here are two of the posts.

Updated

Former Labour cabinet minister suggests Vote Leave’s leaders should be prosecuted for campaign overspending

Labour’s Liam Byrne says this election was corrupt. It was brought with foreign money. He says a minister should ask the CPS to institute a joint enterprise prosecution, because the police investigation should cover not just officials, but “governing minds” as well.

  • Former Labour cabinet minister suggests Vote Leave’s leaders should be prosecuted for campaign overspending.

Updated

Labour’s Julie Elliott says the government should declare the referendum “null and void”.

Smith says the government won’t do that.

Labour’s Alison McGovern describes this abuse as “one of the worst, most despicable abuses of electoral law that we have seen in this House’s lifetime”.

Labour’s Lisa Nandy says she never expected go hear a minister come to the Commons and dowplay the significance of a serious attack on our democracy. This is not just about overspending. It is about dark money and foreign interference in our democracy. The government won’t act because of the Vote Leave campaigners in government, she says.

Smith says Nandy is misrepresenting her views. This matter is being investigated by the police, she says.

Labour’s Chris Leslie asks Smith if she can imagine any level of corruption so gross that it would invalidate any referendum.

Smith says Leslie wants a simple answer. But this is not a simple matter, she says.

Simon Hoare, a Conservative, says parties and campaigns should have to report spending in real time. If that does not happen, “the shysters and the snake oil salesmen” will have won, she says.

The Green MP Caroline Lucas says the government’s response to electoral fraud is “shockingly, obscenely complacent”. She says the Electoral Commission should be allowed to levy much larger fines.

Labour’s David Lammy says there are clear rules in our democracy to prevent undue influence in elections. He says two elections have been declared void recently, in South Thanet and Oldham East. Can the referendum be declared void?

Smith says the government will not be proposing that.

Anna Soubry, a Conservative pro-European, says the referendum was not fair. Russia intervened, she says.

Senior Tory calls for referendum to be re-run in the light of evidence of Vote Leave's 'cheating'

Sarah Wollaston, a Conservative who chairs the Commons health committee and the Commons liaison committee, says the Electoral Commission report reveals deliberate “cheating”. She says Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave campaign director, said the help his campaign got from AggregateIQ made all the difference. But Cummings now refuses to give evidence to a Commons committee, despite claiming that Brexit was all about restoring the authority of parliament. And she says the referendum should be re-run.

We cannot have confidence that this referendum was secure. It should be re-run.

Sir Christopher Chope, a Conservative Brexiter, accuses remainers of “synthetic outrage”. He says the government tried to rig the vote itself by setting aside purdah rules.

SNP says former Vote Leave campaigners should not be allowed to serve in government

The SNP’s Tommy Sheppard says the government’s response is too complacent. He asks for an assurance that anyone who held office in Vote Leave, or on its board, will not be allowed to serve in the government or on its payrole.

  • SNP says former Vote Leave campaigners should not be allowed to serve in government.

Smith rejects this suggestion.

Amber Rudd, the Conservative former home secretary, says: “This matters.” She says the government’s commitment to implementing the referendum result should not stop it taking seriously what has happened.

Smith says the government is taking this seriously. There may be a need to return to the case for futher regulation in the future, she says.

  • Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith hints that government might be open to tightening election spending rules in future.

Chris Matheson, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, calls for Stephen Parkinson, the former Vote Leave official who is now Theresa May’s political secretary, to be sacked for outing the Vote Leave whistleblower.

He asks what the government is going to do to restore honesty and integrity in the system.

Smith asks if Labour will report itself to the police, given that it was fined for not declaring spending in the 2015 general election.

She says the government is getting on with implementing the results of the referendum.

Nicholas Soames calls for wholesale reform of electoral rules, saying Vote Leave’s overspending amounts to a 'gross' abuse

Sir Nicholas Soames, a Conservative pro-European, says “one of the great glories of this sadly now diminished country” is our electoral system. This example is “gross”. If we are to retain the respect of the public, “the whole damn thing needs to be blown up” so that we can start again, he says.

  • Nicholas Soames calls for wholesale reform of electoral rules, saying Vote Leave’s overspending amounts to a “gross” abuse.

Smith says the fact that the rules were broken, and this was discovered, does not mean the system is broken.

Labour’s Chuka Umunna says Vote Leave’s claims were wrong. But we now know they cheated, he says.

He asks if the government thinks Vote Leave’s overspending affected the result.

He says Vote Leave was led by Michael Gove, the environment secretary. Where is he? (Gove is not in the chamber.) Umunna says Gove and Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, sat on a Vote Leave committee that was supposed to oversee the campaign. Other ministers were involved too.

He calls for a full public inquiry into Vote Leave’s overspending.

  • Labour’s Chuka Umunna calls for public inquiry into overspending by Vote Leave in the the EU referendum.

In response, Chloe Smith says she will not comment on Gove and others. She says they were not covered by the report. She is just talking about that, she says.

She says the government believes in people’s ability to choose. Umunna does not, she claims.

Updated

Urgent question on Electoral Commission report

In response to the urgent question on the Electoral Commission report, Chloe Smith, the Cabinet Office minister, summarises what the commission said. She says it would not be appropriate for her to comment on an ongoing policy inquiry.

She says the fact that the rules were breached does not mean the rules are flawed.

The government will continue to implement the referendum result, she says.

  • Cabinet Office minister says government will continue to implement Brexit referendum result despite Electoral Commission findings.

No 10 insists there will be 'Brexit dividend' despite OBR doubts

Downing Street is standing by its claim that there will be a “Brexit dividend”, despite the OBR casting doubt on this, my colleague Pippa Crerar reports.

UPDATE: This is from Jonathan Portes, a former government economist who is now a professor of economics at King’s College London.

Updated

Number 10 sources are suggesting that the government only proposed starting the summer recess on Thursday - instead of next Tuesday, as originally planned - because they thought the opposition parties had agreed, my colleague Pippa Crerar reports.

Jon Trickett, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, has issued this statement on behalf of Labour on the Electoral Commission findings about Vote Leave. He said:

At a time when public trust in politicians is at an all-time low, we are presented with serious acts of wrong-doing by a campaign with strong links to the government.

Ministers and Conservative MPs that worked with Vote Leave must cooperate fully with the police investigation and the government must take all necessary steps to restore public trust.

It is important that the police investigation is allowed to take its course, including the possibility of criminal charges.

There will be an urgent question on the Electoral Commission report at 12.30pm.

The Labour MP Darren Jones is calling for a public inquiry into how spending limits were broken during the EU referendum.

Labour to back amendment tabled by rebel Tories on customs union

As my colleague Pippa Crerar reports, Labour has decided that it will back the new amendment tabled by pro-European Tories Stephen Hammond and Nicky Morgan on a customs union being debated this afternoon.

The amendment is new clause 18 (NC18). You can read all today’s amendment’s here (pdf) and here is the text of NC18.

New clause 18
New clause 18 Photograph: Parliament

To coin a phrase, this amendment proposes a backstop. It says if the customs plan set out in the white paper (which is supposed to guarantee frictionless trade with the EU) has not been agreed by 21 January 2019, then the government will be obliged to negotiate staying in a customs union with the EU.

The government is opposed to staying in a customs union, which it claims would go against what people voted for in the EU referendum (because the UK would not be able to negotiate proper trade deals with other countries if it were in such a customs union).

But if the government has got to 21 January 2019 without agreeing a deal with the EU, Westminster, and business, would probably be at full-scale panic stations anyway.

OBR casts doubt on May's claim 'Brexit dividend' will fund NHS £20bn spending boost

The Office for Budget Responsibility has published its 168-page fiscal sustainability report (pdf). As it says in its news release, the OBR thinks “the long-term outlook for the public finances is less favourable” that it thought in January, principally because of Theresa May’s health spending announcement which as yet is unfunded.

May says some of the extra £20bn will come from the “Brexit dividend”. The OBR has always questioned the existence of such a dividend and it does again today.

It says (see sentence in bold) that it is assuming all the extra health spending will have to come from extra taxation or borrowing, not from savings elsewhere.

Announcing the additional health spending, the prime minister said that it would be funded by a “Brexit dividend, with us as a country contributing a little more”. As already noted, the government has not set out the size or composition of any additional taxpayer contribution, either through higher taxes or cuts in other spending, so we have not been able to include it in our projections. As regards the ‘Brexit dividend’, our provisional analysis suggests that Brexit is more likely to weaken the public finances than strengthen them over the medium term, thanks to its likely effect on the economy and tax revenues. Looking more narrowly at direct financial flows with the EU, we estimated in our March 2018 EFO [Economic and Fiscal Outlook report] that the UK would have had to make a contribution of £13.3 billion to the EU budget in 2022-23 if we remained a member. Of that potential saving, £7.5 billion will be absorbed by the withdrawal settlement payment expected for that year, leaving £5.8 billion to be spent on other things. In principle this could cover slightly less than 30 per cent of the cost of health package in that year, but this does not take into account other calls on these potential savings, including commitments the government has already made on farm support, structural funds, science and access to regulatory bodies. Pending a detailed withdrawal agreement and associated spending decisions, we assume in this report that the extra health spending adds to total spending and borrowing rather than being absorbed in whole or part elsewhere.

Fair Vote UK, which campaigns for more transparency in elections, says the Electoral Commission findings mean the result of the Brexit referendum was illegitimate. Its director, Kyle Taylor, said in a statement:

The Electoral Commission has uncovered far more law-breaking than even we had believed occurred. The government needs to take urgent action to deal with the fact the referendum is now illegitimate. We need to wake up and start fighting for our democracy ...

When the Electoral Commission suspects wrongdoing in elections, these allegations should be promptly and thoroughly investigated by the police. The cap on fines should be lifted. Currently, fines given by the Electoral Commission are small enough that they are just the cost of doing business.

On the BBC this morning Claire Bassett, the Electoral Commission’s chief executive, also argued that the commission needed to be able to levy much larger fines. She said the commission had repeatedly asked for more powers in this regard. “If you look at other regulators, for example the information commissioner, they have the ability to fine far higher amounts,” she said.

And Matthew Elliott, who was chief executive of Vote Leave, has posted these responses to the Electoral Commission report on Twitter.

The Electoral Commission insist Vote Leave did not cooperate. See 9.45am.

Darren Grimes, who founded BeLeave and who has been fined by the Electoral Commission and reported to the police, has posted this response to the report on Twitter. He says that he will challenge the commission’s findings and that the commission has “caved to political pressure from those who despise Brexit”.

This is from Rob Ford, a politics professor and elections expert.

The Labour MP Barry Sheerman says the Electoral Commission findings mean the Brexit referendum should be re-run.

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, has posted this on Twitter about the Electoral Commission findings about Vote Leave.

Jolyon Maugham, the lawyer who led a legal challenge designed to get the Electoral Commission to re-open its investigation into this case, wants Labour to take a stronger stance on this.

Electoral Commission says it's 'immensely frustrated' Vote Leave refused to give evidence to its inquiry

Here is the full Vote Leave response to the Electoral Commission report. A spokesperson said:

The Electoral Commission’s report contains a number of false accusations and incorrect assertions that are wholly inaccurate and do not stand up to scrutiny.

It is astonishing that nobody from Vote Leave has been interviewed by the commission in the production of this report, nor indeed at any point in the past two years, despite Vote Leave repeatedly making it clear they are willing to do so. Yet the commission has interviewed the so-called ‘whistleblowers’ who have no knowledge of how Vote Leave operated and whose credibility has been seriously called into question.

Vote Leave has provided evidence to the Electoral Commission proving there was no wrongdoing. And yet despite clear evidence of wrongdoing by the remain campaign, the commission has chosen to ignore this and refused to launch an investigation.

All this suggests that the supposedly impartial commission is motivated by a political agenda rather than uncovering the facts.

The commission has failed to follow due process, and in doing so has based its conclusions on unfounded claims and conspiracy theories.

We will consider the options available to us, but are confident that these findings will be overturned.

On the BBC a few minutes ago Claire Bassett, the Electoral Commission’s chief executive, was asked how she responded to this. She said:

I’m disappointed nobody was interviewed from Vote Leave as well. We asked them five times over a period of three months to provide somebody to be interviewed and they didn’t do so. So we are immensely frustrated. It is why we issued a significant fine, and we were forced to issue the statutory notice, because we repeatedly sought cooperation from Vote Leave which we didn’t get.

We were, however, able to get a whole range of evidence from different sources, which we have closely inspected ... I think what we’ve produced is a detailed, robust and impartial report.

Electoral Commission chief executive Claire Bassett
Electoral Commission chief executive Claire Bassett Photograph: BBC

Brexit result branded 'dodgier than ever' after Vote Leave spending findings

Vote Leave, the main campaign on the leave side during the EU referendum two years ago, broke election spending law, the Electoral Commission said this morning. The commission has imposed fines on Vote Leave and on Darren Grimes, the founder of BeLeave, another leave campaign, which the commission says was spending money on behalf of Vote Leave. Grimes and a Vote Leave official have also been reported to the police “in relation to false declarations of campaign spending”.

Here is the Electoral Commission’s news release. Here is its 38-page report (pdf). And here is the Guardian’s news story.

Best for Britain, which is campaigning against Brexit, says the findings make the EU referendum result look “dodgier than ever”. It has released this statement from a supporter, the Labour MP David Lammy. He said:

This news makes the narrow referendum result looks dodgier than ever. It’s validity is now in question.

Politicians from all parties have a duty to ask: do we want to continue with a policy that will wreck our economy and consume government for the next decade, based on this flimsy result?

The commission has previously found that Leave.EU, the second most important leave campaign organisation after Vote Leave, also broke election spending rules.

I will post more reaction shortly.

Later I will be focusing on the trade bill debate. The government is at serious risk of another defeat because Tory pro-European rebels will be pushing an amendment that would keep the UK in the customs union.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Theresa May chairs cabinet.

9.30am: Unemployment figures are published.

After 12.30pm: MPs begin their debate on the trade bill. There could be votes at 5pm, 6pm and 7pm.

After 7pm: MPs vote on a motion to begin the summer recess on Thursday, not on Tuesday next week.

Labour’s national executive committee is meeting today. As my colleague Jessica Elgot reports, it will consider a wide-ranging set of proposals to change the way leaders and candidates are selected.

And today the Office for Budget Responsibility is publishing its fiscal sustainability report, which considers the long-term sustainability of the public finances.

This afternoon I will be focusing in particular on the trade bill debate but, as usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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