This is it for the UK live blog for today. Thank you so much to everyone who got in touch and followed along. If you would like to continue following our coverage of the coronavirus pandemic, head over to our global live blog:
Updated
UK records 489 Covid-linked deaths as 28,507 more people test positive
Another 28,507 people in the UK have tested positive for coronavirus in the last 24 hours.
A further 489 people have died within 28 days of being diagnosed, according to the official government Covid statistics. And 1,726 more people were admitted to hospital since yesterday.
You can see the full details here.
The latest testing figures come after the ONS released estimates earlier today saying more than 567,000 people had coronavirus in England last week - a rise of more than 80,000 cases compared to the week before.
Boris Johnson also said the jump in infections meant he could not rule out another lockdown for England in January.
Evening summary
- Boris Johnson refused to rule out a third national lockdown for England amid concerns over rising infection rates and the impact of relaxed guidance for Christmas. The prime minister said the government hoped to avoid another lockdown after Christmas but did not rule it out, reiterating that infection rates have increased “very much”. The Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said easing restrictions over the festive period would be “the next big mistake” for Johnson and that limiting Christmas to mixing only between two households - as in Wales - would be a “step in the right direction”.
- Avoiding social contacts for a week before meeting older or vulnerable relatives over Christmas may reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission, according to Sage. The official government guidance states that people planning to form a Christmas bubble “should stop unnecessary social contact outside your immediate household as soon as possible and for at least five days before you meet other households in your bubble”. Sage said abstaining from social contacts for a week or more will reduce the risk further.
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Relaxing coronavirus restrictions over Christmas could lead to an “unrelenting tsunami” of cases, the Royal College of Nursing, warned. Dame Donna Kinnair called on the government to be “clearer about the risks – not just the rules” and added: “The virus isn’t taking Christmas off and nor should we.” Other medical bodies added their voice to calls for people to exercise extreme caution and take personal responsibility for their own health and the health of those around them over the Christmas period. They emphasised that travelling and family visits would inevitably lead to more cases, more pressure on the NHS and more deaths.
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The World Health Organization warned people to stay at home over the Christmas period as it is “not worth the risk” of catching Covid-19. With more than two-thirds of England’s population due to be living under tier 3 measures from Saturday as the government tries to stem rising infections, the WHO said “the safest thing to do right now is to remain at home”. The organisation’s regional director for Europe, Dr Hans Kluge, said “There remains a difference between what you are being permitted to do by your authorities and what you should do.”
- Boris Johnson called on Brussels to break the Brexit deadlock as Michel Barnier said the trade and security talks were entering the final “few hours”. The two sides remain at loggerheads over access to Britain’s fishing waters and a fresh row over state aid. Here is our story and interactive explainer on why fishing is a sticking point in the talks.
- There has been a sharp rise in the number of people testing positive for Covid-19 in southern England, ONS figures revealed. An estimated 567,300 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between 6 and 12 December - the equivalent of about 1.04% of the population, or one in 95 people. This represents a rise from 481,500 people, or one in 115, who were estimated to have Covid-19 in the period 29 November to 5 December.
- Half of Britons intend on forming a Christmas bubble of up to three houses this festive season, an ONS survey revealed amid a warning from the prime minister that those who do wish to do so should minimise their contacts from today.
- A third national lockdown may need to be more stringent than the second seen in England in November, according to Prof Neil Ferguson, whose modelling led to the first lockdown in March.
- Scotland’s health secretary, Jeane Freeman, said “nothing at this point can sensibly be ruled out” when asked about the prospect of a third lockdown. She said the levels of restrictions imposed on local authorities were under continual discussion, with the results of the next weekly review announced next Tuesday.
- The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK is now above 1, according to figures published by the Government Office for Science and Sage.
Updated
Avoiding social contacts for week before Christmas 'may cut transmission risk' - Sage
Avoiding social contacts for more than five days before meeting older or vulnerable people at Christmas may reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission, according to scientists advising the UK government.
In a set of documents released on Friday, Sage also said that a longer period - such as a week or more - of abstaining from social contact could reduce the risk even further when gathering with loved ones during the festive season.
Experts believe the typical incubation period of the virus is around five days. This is the time when a Covid-19 positive person is the most infectious.
A document published by Sage dated 26 November said households are one of the main settings for transmission.
Reducing the risk of transmission in households is therefore important for limiting spread of Sars-Cov-2, as is identifying where the first person in a household is infected and thus the routes by which infection gets into the household.
It added:
Avoiding social contacts for a period greater than the typical Sars-Cov-2 incubation period [around five days] before meeting older or vulnerable people at Christmas will reduce the risk to them.
A longer period (eg a week or more) would reduce the risk further.
This point should be considered in relation to families and preparation for Christmas. This is also relevant for other celebrations and observances and beyond the Christmas period.
The experts said that modelling studies suggest there may be a higher proportion of cases in older and more vulnerable age groups during the festive period, which could lead to an increase in hospital admissions.
The experts said that mixing between households over the holiday period for one or two days would be less risky than multiple households spending the entire time together.
A document dated 2 December said:
Preliminary analysis from one modelling group suggests that if additional mixing is restricted to three households meeting per day and to the five-day window of relaxations, the total number of days spent mixing within that period may have a large impact on post Christmas prevalence.
But the scientists added that the outcome of relaxation of coronavirus rules over the festive period remains “highly uncertain”.
The rules in place would greatly restrict mixing compared to most years; if adherence to these restrictions is high then it is highly unlikely that the prevalence will double.
Transmission to elderly and more vulnerable people might increase the incidence of disease more than the incidence of infection.
Healthcare seeking and testing-seeking behaviour will change over the festive period.
This, and possible disruption in data cycles, mean that it could taken several weeks to fully understand what happened in that time.
Patients with ongoing Covid-19 symptoms should be referred to specialist clinics as early as four weeks after they develop the illness, according to the first official guidelines on the management of “long Covid”.
However, ME campaigners are disappointed that the guidelines fail to recognise a potential overlap between ongoing coronavirus symptoms and post-viral fatigue syndrome or ME/CFS (myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome), and that they provide no specific advice on symptom management – particularly how to deal with fatigue and energy management.
The guidelines were developed collaboratively by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice), the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) and the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP). They stress that most people’s symptoms resolve within 12 weeks. However, for a sizeable minority of people, symptoms can persist or new ones can develop and worsen and have a continuing detrimental impact on people’s quality of life.
Longer-term impacts can include shortness of breath, fatigue and problems involving the heart, lungs, kidneys, nervous system and muscles and joints.
Linda Geddes has the story:
Sir Keir Starmer has said that limiting Christmas to mixing only between two households would be a “step in the right direction”.
The Labour leader told reporters:
He’s [Boris Johnson] got to toughen up over Christmas, he’s got to show some leadership. Easing the restrictions I think is going to be the next big mistake for the prime minister.
Pressed on what exactly he wants in terms of restrictions over the festive period, Starmer said:
In Wales, for example, they brought it down to two households, that seems a step in the right direction, might want to even talk about the numbers within the households.
But what you can’t have is a prime minister who, as he’s done throughout this pandemic, he’s been too slow to act.
Updated
Northern Ireland’s spiralling Covid-19 cases are due to the “failure of society as a whole”, the first minister has said.
Arlene Foster also singled out Sinn Féin for criticism, claiming the attendance of senior figures at IRA veteran Bobby Storey’s funeral in June, at a time when strict limits on numbers were in place, had damaged the public health messaging.
Her remarks came after Sinn Féin’s deputy first minister, Michelle O’Neill, accused the DUP of ignoring public health advice around lockdown decisions last month.
Foster said:
We do find ourselves in a particularly bad place, I very much regret that that is the case and it’s a failure of society as a whole that we have had to introduce these restrictions in the draconian way that they are coming in on Boxing night.
Last night we did take a very draconian decision, one which I never thought we would have to take. I very much regret the fact that we have had to take it, but we needed to take it and we’re facing a great deal of difficulty across Northern Ireland.
She said people needed to take personal responsibility for their actions in the time ahead. “We are facing very, very difficult times across Northern Ireland,” said the DUP leader.
Of course before the end of June last year compliance in Northern Ireland was very good and in fact we were the envy of other colleagues in the United Kingdom. But at the end of June, one party, Sinn Féin, decided whilst they made the laws they were also above the laws. And now we find ourselves in a situation where messaging is very difficult. We’ve seen a breakdown in compliance and I very, very much regret that to be the case.
Updated
The Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has called on Boris Johnson to set out his plan for averting a third national lockdown in England.
In the party’s headquarters in London, he told reporters that the tiered system was not working:
Nobody wants a third lockdown. It’s hugely damaging on health grounds and also for the economy.
We can see that the tiered system is not working in the way the prime minister promised. More people are going into the higher tiers, so it’s not strong enough.
Whether the prime minister rules it out or not is not the central question.
I think the central question, prime minister, is what are you doing now to prevent the chances of a third lockdown?
Updated
Scotland Yard has issued an open letter urging people not to attend large gatherings over the last weekend before Christmas, amid fears of further anti-lockdown protests in the capital.
The force said extra officers would be on London’s streets to encourage compliance with strict tier 3 Covid-19 regulations and to “swiftly clamp down on those wilfully and dangerously ignoring them”.
An anti-lockdown demonstration is expected in Parliament Square on Saturday, with others planned around the country.
An open letter published on the Metropolitan police’s website asks people not to attend any large gathering and warns they may be at risk of committing a criminal offence if they do.
Coronavirus laws outlaw gatherings of more than six outdoors, although there is a list of exemptions which includes protests where all relevant safety precautions are in place.
The Police Federation, which represents rank and file officers in England and Wales, earlier this week wrote to the home secretary, Priti Patel, highlighting the health risks to those policing protests.
Its national chairman, John Apter, and the Met Police Federation chairman, Ken Marsh, described the Christmas footfall coupled with a mass demonstration as a potentially “deadly and unmanageable mix”.
The Met said the force will focus on disrupting large gatherings, adding that protest organisers must stick to government regulations as well as their submitted risk assessment.
The deputy assistant commissioner, Laurence Taylor, said:
Where we become aware of planned events that will breach regulations, we will try to engage with organisers or venues to make them fully aware of the restrictions that are in place to keep people safe.
However, if people do not listen to our advice and fail to comply with the rules, we will be forced to take enforcement action.
With infection rates rising rapidly across the capital, we all need to play our part in preventing the spread of the virus.
This is the final weekend before Christmas, so now is not the time for complacency. I know Londoners know what they should and should not be doing and I would urge everyone to act sensibly and do their part to keep our city safe.
Sticking to the guidelines put in place to keep us all safe and well is now more important than ever.
This weekend we will ensure we deal with the activity of a few so as not to expose our communities at even greater risk during this pandemic.
Eleven people were arrested after a demonstration by about 200 protesters in London’s Parliament Square on Monday for alleged offences including breach of Covid-19 regulations, Public Order Act offences and assaulting an emergency worker.
During the second national lockdown at the end of November more than 150 people were arrested as activists marched from Hyde Park to Oxford Circus and Regent Street, clashing with police.
Updated
During the coronavirus pandemic the UK government awarded roughly 1,200 contracts – worth more than £12bn of public money and without competition – to companies either run by friends and associates of politicians in the Conservative party, or to firms with no prior experience or a history of controversy, a New York Times (paywall) investigation has revealed.
As just over half of the contracts awarded in the first seven months of the pandemic remain concealed from the public, those analysed by the Times only represent a fraction of the total. It is therefore impossible to know how much the government has truly spent on Covid-19 procurement.
The first analysis of all 1,200+ published UK government Covid contracts by @nytimes found:
— Jane Bradley (@jane__bradley) December 17, 2020
• £3.7bn to politically connected firms
• £4.5bn to firms with no prior experience
• £4bn to firms with a history of controversies
by me @selamgkidan @atmccann https://t.co/69y4ix3Srz
Our investigation also found that the government’s PPE tsar — former investment banker and Olympics boss Lord Deighton — has financial interests or personal ties to at least seven companies awarded hundreds of millions of pounds in public contracts. https://t.co/69y4ix3Srz
— Jane Bradley (@jane__bradley) December 17, 2020
Updated
Deaths from coronavirus in Wales have now passed 3,000, according to Public Health Wales.
The agency’s latest figures, published on Friday, show another 38 deaths were reported in the previous 24 hours, taking the total during the pandemic to 3,011. A further 2,801 cases of Covid-19 took the country’s total to 117,367.
It comes after an extra 11,000 cases were added to the country’s total on Thursday, after maintenance work on Public Health Wales’s computer systems meant the numbers were not included on top of 11,911 positive cases reported between 9 and 15 December.
The country’s seven-day case rate is now 562.2 per 100,000 people, the highest of any of the four UK nations.
The latest figures came as Wales’s minister for mental health and wellbeing, Eluned Morgan, warned case rates could even go beyond 1,000 per 100,000 if the two-week-old restrictions on hospitality fail to “kick in”, blaming the ever-increasing rates on people mixing with others.
Lady Morgan told the Welsh government’s Covid-19 press briefing:
It’s still early days on that and we’re waiting to see if that will be translated into fewer cases. The bottom line, however, is that a lot of people are still mixing within households, and that is where the real problem lies.
So, unless people start to take their responsibility seriously and stop mixing with other households, then we are likely to see the worst-case modelling, which can go above 1,000 per 100,000. That is something we’re very concerned about.
She said Wales will enter its level 4 restrictions – effectively a lockdown – on 28 December “as one nation” despite some areas like Anglesey and Conwy having much lower levels of cases.
In Conwy, the seven-day case rate is 88.7 to 81.9, and in Anglesey the rate has fallen from 47.1 to 38.5, while Merthyr Tydfil has the highest rate of new cases in the UK, with 1,226.7 per 100,000 people.
But Morgan said “phasing coming out” of the restrictions would be considered depending on “how the virus will behave in the coming weeks”.
She said moving into the highest level of restrictions is aimed at ensuring the NHS does not become “overwhelmed”, but admitted that health boards across the country are experiencing “huge pressure”, resulting in a shortage of critical care capacity and three health boards suspending all non-urgent care.
Morgan also said substantial services will be put in place to ensure people are supported with issues of mental health over the winter months, and to help avoid a “crisis”.
These will include phone-based and online services, counselling and early intervention services, she said.
Updated
Good afternoon. This is Lucy Campbell, back from lunch. I’ll be bringing you more developments on the coronavirus pandemic for the next few hours, so please feel free to get in touch with me as I work if you have a story or tips to share! Your thoughts on what we should be covering here are always welcome.
Email: lucy.campbell@theguardian.com
Twitter: @lucy_campbell_
The number of prisoners who have tested positive for coronavirus in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic more than doubled in the space of a month in November, figures reveal.
At the end of November, 3,429 prisoners had tested positive for Covid-19 since March, an increase of 1,807 on the October figure, Ministry of Justice (MoJ) figures show. The MoJ has been testing all symptomatic prisoners since April.
In addition, 15 prisoners died having tested positive for Covid-19 in November – three times as many deaths as October. There are about 79,000 prisoners in England and Wales.
Seven jails had positive test results for the first time during November, with a total of 81 prisons reporting cases, up from 45 establishments in October. There are 121 prisons in England and Wales.
The rise in cases will present a challenge for ministers and prison officials, who have faced warnings about the devastating longer-term impact of subjecting prisoners to a highly restrictive regime but must balance protecting staff and inmates from the virus.
A further 317 people who tested positive for coronavirus have died in hospital in England, bringing the total number of confirmed deaths reported in hospitals to 45,783, NHS England said on Friday.
Patients were aged between 35 and 100. All except eight, aged between 60 and 97, had known underlying health conditions.
The deaths were between November 4 and December 17.
Prof Neil Ferguson, whose modelling led to the original lockdown in March, has suggested a third national lockdown may need to be more stringent than the second seen in England in November. The influential epidemiologist said:
I’m actually more concerned about what we’re going to be facing in early January than I am over the Christmas period itself.
We obviously would like schools to reopen, people will be getting back to work – there’ll be more general contacts in the population than typically occurs over the Christmas season and we’ll still have limited amount of vaccine.
We’re facing very rapid increases in case numbers over time and we have very little headroom – we’ve heard reports today that local hospitals that really are at their limits at the moment – as is typically the case in winter. So we just won’t be able to allow case numbers to rise much further.
The concern I have right now is that if we talk about the east of England – case numbers were rising during the last lockdown. So there may be a need for additional controls beyond even what were in place then.
Updated
R value back above 1 across the UK
The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK is now above 1.
Figures published by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) estimate the figure to be between 1.1 and 1.2. Last week, the R number was between 0.9 and 1.
R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect. When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.
An R number between 1.1 and 1.2 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 12 other people.
The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between plus 1% and plus 4% for the UK as a whole.
It means the number of new infections is growing by between 1% and 4% every day.
Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range and the true values are likely to lie within this range, according to the experts.
Sage also said the figures published on Friday more accurately represent the average situation over the past few weeks rather than the present situation.
Experts revealed all NHS England regions have R estimates that are above or span 1, suggesting the epidemic is growing in much of the country. The east of England, south-east and London now have R estimates well above 1, they said.
Updated
There have been a further 2,801 cases of coronavirus in Wales, taking the total number of confirmed cases to 117,367.
Public Health Wales reported another 38 deaths, taking the total in Wales since the start of the pandemic to 3,011.
US President Donald Trump has said a second coronavirus vaccine, made by Moderna, has been approved for use in the country.
He tweeted: “Moderna vaccine overwhelmingly approved. Distribution to start immediately.”
Moderna vaccine overwhelmingly approved. Distribution to start immediately.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 18, 2020
The UK government has secured 7 million doses of the jab – enough to vaccinate about 3.5 million people.
Updated
Asked about the prospect of following Wales and Northern Ireland into a full lockdown after Christmas, Scotland’s health secretary, Jeane Freeman, told the daily briefing that “nothing at this point can sensibly be ruled out”.
Undoubtedly the situation in Wales and Northern Ireland is significantly more challenging...but that doesn’t mean we should be complacent.
She said the levels of restrictions imposed on local authorities were under continual discussion, with the results of the next weekly review announced next Tuesday. It’s worth noting that this extra review was added by the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, because case numbers were so volatile.
National clinical director, Jason Leitch, said:
Hospitals in Scotland are coping, they are not ringing alarm bells to tell us to do something dramatic quickly.
He added that, speaking to colleagues in Wales and Northern Ireland, “they are worried, you can hear from some of the language both from politicians and clinical advisors how worried they are”.
Updated
The Royal College of Anaesthetists and the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine have added their voice to calls for people to be cautious and “take personal responsibility for the health of themselves and others around them” this Christmas.
In a joint statement, they said:
Anaesthetists and intensive care doctors are working incredibly hard to care for their patients this winter, but they can only do so much.
Increased admissions of Covid could see ICUs stretched to their capacity and will also increase the risk of healthcare workers getting infected, impacting many other services.
It has never been more important for people to take personal responsibility for the health of themselves and others around them.
Remember protecting yourself, your family and your loved ones is the most important gift you can give this year.
Boris Johnson has told the EU to “see sense” and come to the table with a compromise as “things are looking difficult” in trying to bridge the gap in post-Brexit trade deal negotiations.
During the visit to Greater Manchester, he stressed the public voted in the EU referendum to control its own laws and waters, adding:
No sensible government is going to agree to a treaty that doesn’t have those two basic things in it as well as everything else.
Our door is open, we’ll keep talking, but I have to say things are looking difficult.
There’s a gap that needs to be bridged, the UK has done a lot to try to help, and we hope that our EU friends will see sense and come to the table with something themselves, because that’s really where we are.
He acknowledged there would be difficult days ahead in the short term if the transition period ends on 31 December without a trade deal in place.
Yes, it may be difficult at first but this country will prosper mightily, as I’ve said many, many times, on any terms and under any arrangement, and I think we’ve just got to get through this period and look to all the opportunities that will open up to this country in 2021.
Updated
PM declines to rule out third national lockdown after Christmas
Boris Johnson has not ruled out another national lockdown after Christmas, saying the rates of infection have increased “very much” in the last few weeks.
As pressure grows on the government to tackle rising infections, the prime minister was asked on a visit to Greater Manchester whether England would follow Northern Ireland in imposing stringent restrictions after the festive period.
He said:
We’re hoping very much that we will be able to avoid anything like that. But the reality is that the rates of infection have increased very much in the last few weeks.
Updated
Sharp rise in number of people testing positive in south of England
An estimated 567,300 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between 6 and 12 December, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is the equivalent of about 1.04% of the population, or one in 95 people.
It represents a rise from 481,500 people, or one in 115, who were estimated to have Covid-19 in the period 29 November to 5 December.
The figures do not include people staying in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
Our latest estimate for England suggests the #COVID19 infection rate has increased.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) December 18, 2020
Around 1 in 95 people not in care homes, hospitals or other institutional settings would test positive from 6 to 12 December https://t.co/zVMk0Gn46M pic.twitter.com/fmeW63H7RV
#COVID19 infection rates varied across England over the most recent week, increasing sharply in London, with other increases in the East of England, East Midlands, and the South East.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) December 18, 2020
The infection rate in the North West and Yorkshire and The Humber has continued to decrease pic.twitter.com/fDukPTbCGL
The #COVID19 infection rate has increased in most age groups, apart from
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) December 18, 2020
▪ those in school year 12 to 24 year olds
▪ 50 to 69 year olds.
There are now early signs that the infection rate is levelling out among older teenagers and young adults https://t.co/fwhnfx1A4m pic.twitter.com/Z1EJuIvPxo
Updated
Half of Britons plan on forming a Christmas bubble
Half of Britons intend on forming a Christmas bubble of up to three houses this festive season, amid a warning from the prime minister that those who do wish to do so should minimise their contacts from today.
The Office for National Statistics found that half of adults say they will form a bubble, while 38% said they will not.
It comes as the prime minister, Boris Johnson, again pressed the government’s message of “personal responsibility” in the upcoming festive period.
“If you are forming a Christmas bubble, it’s vital that from today, you minimise contact with people from outside your household,” he said in a tweet.
Fewer people plan to carry out their usual Christmas activities this year, according to the survey: just over a quarter of people said they would be visiting family and friends (26%, down from 52% last year) while one in five said they would have family and friends visit (19%, compared with 39% last year).
Just 11% of people said they would stay with friends and family while 10% said they would stay with friends (down from 28% and 21% respectively.
The proportion of those planning to meet in restaurants, cafés or bars stood at 4%, compared with 44% last year.
Updated
The president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine has said we must do “whatever it takes” to get coronavirus cases under control.
Asked if a lockdown needs to be announced for England and Scotland following similar announcements in Wales and Northern Ireland, Dr Katherine Henderson said:
I don’t really care what the terminology is, all I know is that we need to do something to get ourselves suppressing the community transmission of the virus.
It seems to me we need to do whatever it takes to get the situation firmly under control so that we can vaccinate people and then move forward.
She said the difference between the current situation and the one in March is that hospitals are still trying to carry on with all their non-Covid work while dealing with a rise in patients with the virus.
We’ve got a real perfect storm going at the moment of lack of beds, a big wave of Covid patients and a desperate attempt to try and carry on doing [non-Covid] work.
She urged the public to be “incredibly careful” over the festive period, adding:
Just don’t make anything more risky than it needs to be.
Updated
Northern Ireland would have witnessed thousands of Covid-19 deaths if no action had been taken to suppress the virus, Stormont’s chief scientific adviser has said.
Prof Ian Young’s stark assessment came after the devolved executive agreed to a sweeping new lockdown, which will come into force on Boxing Day and last six weeks.
Young said NI’s already over-capacity health service would have been completely swamped in January if no action was taken.
Of all of the things that we look at in terms of modelling, the number of deaths is the one that is most difficult to predict. It would, if no action were taken – which is inconceivable – have been very large, certainly within the thousands, if no action was taken.
He told BBC Radio Ulster that the current number of inpatients with Covid-19 of between 400 and 500 would have soared to between 3,000 and 4,000 by the end of January if no action had been taken.
In terms of the total number of general and acute beds, the type of beds that would have been required in hospital, the number of patients needing beds would have exceeded the total number of beds that were available.
Northern Ireland’s reproduction number (R) is currently between 1.1 and 1.2. A further 12 deaths involving Covid-19 were reported on Thursday, along with another 656 new cases of the virus. The hospital occupancy rate stood at 104%.
On Friday, the health minister, Robin Swann, said the lockdown would lay a “strong and deep foundation” for the fight against Covid-19 in 2021.
It’s something that was necessary, it is the toughest restrictions we’ve brought in yet, but, at this time of the year, just where coronavirus is, they were necessary to try to get back on top of it the way we did at the start of the year, so we can get the benefit that is actually coming out of the vaccine that we’ve started to deploy.
The Christmas bubble arrangements that allow three households to come together for five days over the festive period are not affected by the new lockdown measures.
Swann defended the executive’s decision not to implement the lockdown sooner than Boxing Day. He said it would have seen people trying to squeeze activities such as shopping into a shorter period of time, which would have resulted in more interaction and a greater spread of the virus.
Updated
One in 10 Britons are “very” or “fairly” unlikely to take the Covid-19 vaccine, according to the Office for National Statistics this morning, with one in 20 saying they didn’t know.
Of those who said they would be unlikely to take the vaccine if offered, the most commonly reported reasons were:
- Feeling worried about the side effects (52%).
- Wanting to wait to see how well the vaccine works (52%).
- Feeling worried about the long-term effects on their health (46%).
A much smaller proportion (7%) said they were “against vaccines in general”.
There were differences in the intention to take the vaccine depending on age: while 95% of those aged 70 and over said they would take the vaccine, the proportion decreased with age.
Close to three quarters of 16- to 29-year-olds (63%) said they were likely or fairly likely to have the vaccine if offered.
Updated
Downing Street has sacked a ministerial aide after an investigation into the leaking of a letter warning Conservative MPs not to leak (you can’t make it up).
Andrew Lewer was dismissed as a parliamentary private secretary at the Home Office after a “canary trap” probe led by chief whip Mark Spencer, multiple Whitehall sources confirmed on Friday.
In an effort to identify suspected leakers within the government, the letter was understood to have contained distinct but minor differences in versions sent to each recipient.
An image of one ended up on the Guido Fawkes political website on Thursday afternoon and Lewer was dismissed as an aide to the policing minister, Kit Malthouse.
Lewer, a former MEP who represents Northampton South in the Commons, is yet to respond to a request for comment but is reported to have denied being behind the leak.
The letter had warned that the prime minister’s foreword to the ministerial code “strictly prohibits” leaking, adding:
Please keep this in the forefront of your mind; the position you hold is a privilege and not a right.
The government has been trying to clamp down on unwanted leaking after the so-called “Chatty Rat” scandal led to newspapers learning of the second national lockdown for England ahead of Boris Johnson’s announcement.
Johnson this week said the search for the culprit was ongoing and he promised to update the Commons “if” the source was identified.
Updated
It’s a crucial but lesser publicised aspect of the UK government’s Christmas guidance for England.
If you do decide to form a Christmas bubble, “you should stop unnecessary social contact outside your immediate household as soon as possible and for at least five days before you meet other households in your bubble”.
This means that from today, if they are planning to spend Christmas with another household, people should now minimise contact with people outside their own households until then.
If you are forming a Christmas Bubble, it’s vital that from today, you minimise contact with people from outside your household.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 18, 2020
Everyone must take personal responsibility to avoid passing the virus on to loved ones this Christmas.https://t.co/dpk4hK17xs
Growing numbers of hospitals in England are running short of beds and having to divert patients elsewhere and cancel operations as the NHS struggles to cope with the resurgence of Covid-19, a Guardian analysis has revealed.
According to the NHS figures, hospitals had to tell ambulance crews to divert patients elsewhere 44 times last week – the highest number for four years.
With hospitals in London, Leicester and Northampton particularly hard hit, Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, warned:
It already feels like we’re in the grips of a really bad winter, and there’s a very long way to go.
The pressures are being compounded by the numbers of NHS staff who are off work because of the virus, with doctors and NHS leaders saying that frontline services will come under even more intense strain in the next few weeks.
The warnings came as the UK recorded 35,383 positive cases on Thursday – the highest for a single day, with the total number of patients in hospital at more than 18,000, a rise of almost 3,000 from the same time last week.
Denis Campbell and Nicola Davis report:
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Why have arguments over fish stocks been blocking a wider post-Brexit trade deal with the EU? This comprehensive Guardian explainer explores the facts of the situation, how it has come to this and why it matters.
Lothian health board has urged residents to “pull together” after an “alarming rise” in Covid-19 cases across the region, which includes the Scottish capital, Edinburgh, as the east coast overtakes the west coast in terms of virus hotspots.
The chief executive of NHS Lothian, Calum Campbell, said:
The rate of transmission is not only higher here now than it is in the west. It’s climbing. So we need everyone to stop and think and do the right thing.
Three Scottish council areas – Aberdeen, Aberdeenshire and East Lothian – will face tougher restrictions from 6pm this evening, as they all move from level 2 to level 3 of the five-tier system of coronavirus controls in a bid to reverse rising numbers of cases.
The move comes as NHS Borders warned that a rise in cases meant the region’s infection rates were “no longer consistent” with the area’s level 1 restrictions, with an outbreak at Borders general hospital resulting in routine surgery being suspended until the end of the year.
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Michel Barnier has said the main obstacle to a deal in the final “few hours” of the post-Brexit trade negotiation is whether Brussels will be able to hit British goods with tariffs if the government closes its fishing waters to EU fishing fleets in the future, Daniel Boffey reports.
The two sides are at loggerheads over whether the EU will be able to hit back should the UK close its seas to European vessels after a transition period of unspecified length.
Barnier said it would only be fair for Brussels to be able to put tariffs on UK goods, and fisheries products in particular, should European fishing fleets lose their access to British waters.
When it comes to access to markets without tariffs and quotas and the UK would like to regain its sovereignty over fisheries, to be able to control access to its waters and, as I’ve said on many occasions, I’ll reiterate that here: we can accept that and we respect that.
But if following a critical period of adjustment that is deemed necessary, if the UK then wants to cut access to these waters for European fishermen, at any given time, then the European Union also has to maintain its sovereign right to react or to compensate by adjusting the conditions for products, and especially fisheries products to the single market.
And that is where we come up against one of the main hurdles of the negotiations at the moment, fisheries being part and parcel of the economic partnership.
On a personal note, I don’t think it would be fair, not acceptable, if European fishermen were not allowed, following transitional rights, to have access to those waters when the rest of the agreement, especially applying to companies from the UK, would remain stable in their rights, so that wouldn’t be fair, that wouldn’t be honest.
Full story here:
WHO warns people against Christmas gatherings as it is 'not worth the risk'
The World Health Organization (WHO) has appealed to people to stay at home during the holiday season as it is “not worth the risk” of catching Covid-19.
With more than two-thirds of England’s population due to be living under tier 3 measures from Saturday as the UK government tries to stem rising infections, the WHO said “the safest thing to do right now is to remain at home”.
The organisation’s regional director for Europe, Dr Hans Kluge, said:
There remains a difference between what you are being permitted to do by your authorities and what you should do.
In a statement, he said:
We have a few more months of sacrifice ahead and can behave now in a way that collectively we are proud of. When we look back at these unprecedented times, I hope we all felt we acted with a spirit of shared humanity to protect those in need.
It comes as Dame Donna Kinnair, the chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, warned relaxing coronavirus restrictions over Christmas could lead to an “unrelenting tsunami” of cases.
After a difficult year, it is everybody’s instinct to want to be together and see loved ones – especially those who live far apart or feel isolated. But what is at stake is coming into sharp focus.
Travelling and family visits associated with this time of year will undoubtedly lead to more cases, more pressure on NHS and care services, and more deaths. By turning the second and third waves into an unrelenting tsunami, we would begin 2021 in the worst possible way.
She said nurses would not enjoy Christmas “knowing what awaits them in January” and called on the government to be “clearer about the risks – not just the rules”, warning:
This virus isn’t taking Christmas off and nor should we.
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'Just a few hours' left to strike deal, Barnier warns
Michel Barnier has warned there are “just a few hours” left to strike a post-Brexit trade deal with the UK, as the two sides stand at the “moment of truth”.
As talks resumed today, Barnier said that there is a chance of getting a deal in time for the end of the transition period on 31 December, but said that the path to a breakthrough is “very narrow”.
His warning came after Boris Johnson told the European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, that the EU must “significantly” shift its stance on fishing, for an agreement, as the brinkmanship continued.
The EU set the latest deadline that an agreement must be ready by Sunday night in order to have enough time for MEPs to ratify it, while the House of Commons has been warned it may need to to hastily return from Christmas recess to vote on a deal.
“It’s the moment of truth,” Barnier told the European parliament in Brussels.
We have very little time remaining, just a few hours, to work through these negotiations in useful fashion if we want this agreement to enter into force on 1 January. There is a chance of getting an agreement but the path to such an agreement is very narrow.
The EU’s chief negotiator said he was being “frank with you and open and sincere” when he said that he was unable to say what the result will be from the “last home straight of negotiations”.
The prime minister and Von der Leyen took stock of negotiations in a call on Thursday evening. The EC president acknowledged “big differences” remained between the two sides and stressed that “bridging them will be very challenging”.
Johnson tweeted after the call to say he told Von der Leyen that “time is short and the EU position needed to change substantially”. Downing Street said the prime minister warned it looked “very likely” a deal would not be agreed unless the bloc shifted its stance.
I spoke to @vonderleyen this evening on UK-EU negotiations, stressing time is short and the EU position needed to change substantially.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 17, 2020
Read here: https://t.co/FJsfdFAX2z pic.twitter.com/Bf9ZzukxKj
Agreement was getting closer on the “level playing field” to ensure neither side could unfairly compete by eroding environmental standards, workers’ rights or state subsidies, but fishing policy remained a major sticking point.
Johnson warned that the UK “could not accept a situation” where it was unable to control access to its waters and would have fishing quotas that “hugely disadvantaged its own industry”, according to a No 10 spokeswoman.
The EU’s position in this area was simply not reasonable and if there was to be an agreement it needed to shift significantly.
Barnier’s counterpart at No 10, Lord Frost, warned that progress “seems blocked” ahead of talks resuming in Brussels.
The situation in our talks with the EU is very serious tonight. Progress seems blocked and time is running out. The Prime Minister @BorisJohnson set out his concerns about the state of play to Commission President @vonderleyen this evening. https://t.co/wTOGrvXbWT
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) December 17, 2020
The Cabinet Office minister, Michael Gove, who has been in charge of the government’s no-deal planning, said on Thursday the chances of an agreement remained “less than 50%”.
He told the Commons Brexit committee the “most likely outcome” was that the transition period would end on 31 December without a deal.
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Brexit talks continue amid fresh row over state aid and fisheries
Good morning. I’m Lucy Campbell. Post-Brexit trade deal talks between the UK and European Union will continue in Brussels after the two sides warned that major obstacles remain despite progress in the negotiations. Boris Johnson and the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said “substantial progress” had been made on a Brexit trade deal following a phone call on Thursday - but both are still warning there are significant obstacles to overcome.
The prime minister claimed in a statement that talks were in a “serious situation” after the call and repeated his suggestion that it was “very likely” that an agreement would not be reached, with fisheries the standout issue.
Adding to the late-stage brinkmanship over a trade deal, The Times (paywall) reports on concerns over the EU’s demands to allow Brussels to subsidise industries across Europe while denying the UK the same rights. The state aid exemption from any future subsidy control regime as part of a post-Brexit trade deal would, Johnson told Von der Leyen, allow the EU to unfairly support European industries while putting UK firms at a competitive disadvantage.
The FT (paywall) also reports that the talks have been bogged down by this fresh row over state aid, a sticking point concentrated on a dispute over the EU’s €750bn Covid recovery fund. Johnson warned the fund could not be exempt from state aid restrictions in a post-Brexit agreement.
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, warned there was only a “very narrow” path to a post-Brexit trade deal with the UK as both sides stand at the “moment of truth”. He told the European parliament in Brussels:
We’re not asking more nor less than a balance between rights and obligations and reciprocity, access to our markets and access to our waters and the other way round, no more, no less. It’s also obvious that this isn’t an agreement we will sign at any price or any cost. I think I’ve always been frank with you and open and sincere. I cannot say what will come during this last home straight of negotiations. We have to be prepared for all eventualities.
The UK is “working around the clock” to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU, the schools minister, Nick Gibb, said this morning. As last-ditch talks continue between London and Brussels, Gibb told Times Radio:
The prime minister says that we are in a very serious situation. We will test every route to getting a free trade agreement before the end of the year. But we can’t do so at the expense of our sovereignty. We cannot be the only nation in the world that doesn’t have control of its own seas, its own fisheries.
So, we will work very hard. The government is working around the clock to get a trade deal, but not at the expense of this country’s independence.
I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments in UK politics and the coronavirus pandemic for the next eight hours. Please feel free to get in touch with me as I work if you have a story or tips to share! Your thoughts are always welcome.
Email: lucy.campbell@theguardian.com
Twitter: @lucy_campbell_
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