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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden (until 2.30) and Nick Fletcher

Pound hits two year low on Brexit fears - as it happened

European Union and the Union Jack flags
European Union and the Union Jack flags. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

European markets close broadly flat

As the long weekend approaches, stock markets had little inspiration to move in either direction so ended up virtually unchanged, with a couple of exceptions. Tony Cross, market analyst at Trustnet Direct, said:

The FTSE close on Wednesday replicated the atmosphere on trading floors across Europe as London’s leading index finished flat on the day. With little in the way of corporate news or economic data to guide them, most investors decided to stay away, possibly eager not to get left exposed ahead of the long Easter weekend.

The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished up 6.37 points or 0.1%
  • Germany’s Dax edged up 0.33% to 10,022.93
  • France’s Cac dipped 0.18% to 4423.98
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 1.26% to 18,462.88
  • Spain’s Ibex ended down 0.72% at 8927.1
  • In Greece, the Athens market added 1.29% to 551.31

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 33 points or 0.19% lower.

Meanwhile with rising US crude inventories again, Brent is down 2.5% at $40.74 a barrel.

On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

The pound continued to come under pressure on growing uncertainty over the prospect of Britain leaving the European Union. A new poll showed the lead of the Remain campaign slipping, helping push sterling to a one month low against the euro and down more than a cent at $1.4094. The US currency was also supported by a number of hawkish comments from members of the Federal Reserve, who suggested rate rises were still on the cards - perhaps even in April - despite the current market volatility.

Low oil prices have failed to give the global economy a lift and could cause serious problems, suggest IMF economists in a new blog post:

Oil prices have been persistently low for well over a year and a half now, but as the April 2016 World Economic Outlook will document, the widely anticipated “shot in the arm” for the global economy has yet to materialize. We argue that, paradoxically, global benefits from low prices will likely appear only after prices have recovered somewhat and advanced economies have made more progress surmounting the current low interest rate environment....

Persistently low oil prices complicate the conduct of monetary policy, risking further inroads by unanchored inflation expectations. What is more, the current episode of historically low oil prices could ignite a variety of dislocations including corporate and sovereign defaults, dislocations that can feed back into already jittery financial markets. The possibility of such negative feedback loops makes demand support by the global community– along with a range of country-specific structural and financial-sector reforms–all the more urgent.

After the select committee meeting with EDF on a new nuclear plant at Hinckley Point, one of its MPs James Heappey has called on the French government to formally confirm the timetable for them to refinance the business. Heappey said:

This morning’s evidence session was hugely frustrating. EDF CEO Vincent de Rivaz opened by saying ‘categorically’ that Hinkley C would go ahead and seeming to confirm that a final investment decision would come in ‘early May’. But when pressed to confirm that date, he refused to do so.

It is clear from his responses to our questions that despite EDF’s undoubted commitment to Hinkley, the final decision on the project is entirely in the hands of President Hollande and the French Government.

Whatever EDF might want to do, they just don’t have the cash to do this unless the French Government agree to their re-capitalisation. EDF clearly expect this to be agreed by May but the UK Government must now seek further assurances from Paris that this timeline is realistic.

Here is our report on the committee hearing:

Oil falls on higher than expected US inventory figures

Crude prices, which have been supported by hopes that a meeting of producers next month can agree to freeze output to cope with the supply glut, have slipped back after new US inventory figures.

US crude inventories rose by a much larger than forecast 9.4m barrels last week, more than three times higher than expected. Refineries cut output and imports jumped, adding to the crude stocks.

But gasoline stocks fell by 4.6m barrels compared to expectations of a 1.5m decline.

And crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub in Oklahoma dropped by 1.26m barrels, the first fall in seven weeks.

The news has helped send Brent crude down 2.5% to $40.73 a barrel.

Over in the US , and new home sales rose 2% in February after a 7% fall in the previous month.

But this was lower than the expected 3% rise, and sales fell in three of the main regions, with only the West seeing an increase, which took some of the gloss off the figures.

February sales rose to an annual rate of 512,000 compared to 502,000 in the previous month. The January figure was revised upwards from 494,000.

On Wall Street, markets have taken the data in their stride, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down just 20 points.

Here’s the opinion poll that is hitting sterling:

The polling was taken last week, on 16 March.

Updated

Sterling has just hit its lowest level against a basket of other currencies in more than two years. Thats’s via Reuters, who are citing data from the Bank of England.

Back to the other story of the morning... worries about the UK EU referendum.

The pound is continuing to drop today, now down almost one cent against the US dollar at $1.4113.

This latest weakness is triggered by a new telephone poll from Comres, just released, which shows the Remain campaign with 48% of support, and Leave on 41%. That’s the narrowest lead since the general election of May 2015, according to Reuters.

That follows the spike in sterling volatility we covered this morning, driven by new worries about Brexit.

There’s drama in the UK courts today

Tom Hayes, the only person jailed in the UK for conspiring to rig the Libor rate, has been ordered to pay $1.25m, or £878k, after a ‘proceeds of crime’ hearing.

It’s likely that Hayes, and wife Sarah, will now be forced to sell their house in Surrey.

Over at Westminster magistrates court, the alleged “flash crash trader” Navinder Singh Sarao has been told he can be extradited to the US.

Sarao is accused of causing market turmoil on Wall Street in 2010, which briefly wiped 1,000 points off the Dow Jones industrial average.

From court, Rob Davies has the details:

District judge Quentin Purdy at Westminster magistrates court on Wednesday ruled that Sarao’s alleged actions constituted a crime in the UK.

The ruling means Sarao, 37, can be sent to the US to answer 22 counts of wire fraud, commodities fraud and market manipulation carrying a maximum sentence of 380 years’ imprisonment.

Sarao’s lawyer Richard Egan said: “We’re very disappointed. We definitely will be appealing. We think we’ve got a strong argument.”

Energy and climate change committee member James Heappey shares our view of today’s hearing:

The BHS store in London’s Oxford Street.

Good news for fans of British Home Stores.

The UK retailer has been rescued from closure, after its creditors voted in favour of the department store chain’s survival plan.

My colleague Graham Ruddick has the details:

Landlords, suppliers and other creditors approved the 88-year-old retailer’s company voluntary arrangement (CVA), an insolvency procedure, at a vital meeting in a hotel in west London on Wednesday.

The approval of the CVA secures the short-term future of BHS’s 10,000 staff and 164 stores. However, the company still needs to restructure its pension scheme, which has a deficit of £571m and is likely to enter the Pension Protection Fund, and raise £100m so it can continue trading and fund a turnaround plan that includes modernising its shops and product range.

The CVA involves landlords accepting sharp cuts to the rent on 87 of BHS’s 164 shops. As many as 40 of these shops could close in the next few months if a deal on the size of the rent reduction cannot be reached with property owners.

Greenpeace chief scientist Doug Parr, who pointed to flaws in the Hinkley C project this morning, has issued a statement heavily criticising the situation:

“This morning the committee began to come to terms with the fact that the UK’s energy policy has been annexed by EDF. It became very clear that Hinkley is dependant on the French state and the enthusiasm of the French and Chinese nuclear industries.

This has distorted our national infrastructure planning, and has led to the UK government undermining our nascent but booming renewable energy businesses and scaring off investment. It is unconscionable that in reality the decisions pending about the future of our energy system and whether the UK meet our future carbon targets are in the hands of the French Economy Minister.”

Snap summary: The Hinkley Show rolls on

What have we just learned about Britain’s biggest nuclear power project in decades?

1) EDF are still committed. Despite the shock resignation of its CFO, and concerns over its own finances, France’s energy company is still planning to build Britain a new nuclear power station at Hinkley.

CEO Vincent de Rivaz insists that the controversial project is a good deal for all sides, and can be delivered. In a prepared statement, he said:

I will start by saying, clearly and categorically, that Hinkley Point C will go ahead.

That’s good news for the UK. It has been a long road. The project has successfully passed a huge number of regulatory, commercial and operational milestones.

EDF has already invested £2.4bn, and is spending another £55m per month.

2) But the project is in the French government’s hands, rather than MPs in Westminster.

De Rivaz consistently failed to commit to signing a final investment decision in May. Why? Because he’s waiting for French ministers to agree a bailout for the company.

Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister, is effectively deciding whether Britain embarks on the Hinkley project.

Conservative MP James Heappey summed the situation up, in this exchange.

If the French government doesn’t commit to that recapitalisation [of EDF], you can’t build us a power station because you’ve not got the cash.

3) Confidence isn’t enough. The committee shone a light on the nuclear industry’s black spots - plants are very difficult to build safely, and expensive to decommission afterwards.

Committee chair Angus MacNeil pointed to other projects where executive confidence has been followed by problems on the ground.

France’s troubled Flamanville nuclear project loomed over today’s session, given the problems with its reactor vessel. De Rivaz insisted that lessons have been learned, but that’s easier to say than prove.....

4) The climax is looming. While uranium has a half-life of 4.468bn years, the Hinkley C drama could be intensifying in just a few weeks. If EDF doesn’t sign on the dotted line to build Hinkley in early May, then the whole future of the project will be in serious doubt.

That would please many campaigners - such as the three experts who told MPs this morning that Hinkley is a bad deal and best abandoned. But I suspect it would prove career-limiting for de Rivaz.

Our environment editor Damian Carrington sums up today’s hearing:

Updated

Energy committee threaten to recall EDF

The session ends with chairman Angus MacNeil saying the committee has heard EDF’s confidence about Hinkley “loud and clear.”

But they want to see action – a final investment decision on Hinkley by early May.

So it that doesn’t happen, and the Hinkley project isn’t in the Queens speech on May 18, Vincent de Rivaz and colleagues could be hauled back to parliament to explain themselves.

The committee turn to China’s Taishan nuclear power station, which is using similar technology as Hinkey C.

Q: When will Taishan be up and running?

China General Nuclear’s Zhu Minhong says it will definitely start operations in 2017.

Q: So why is it moving so much faster than Hinkley?

EDF’s Humphrey Cadoux-Hudson says Taishan has benefitted from some of the lessons learned at France’s Flamanville.

The committee are concerned about problems at the Flamanville nuclear power plant in France - will they affect Hinkley?

Humphrey Cadoux-Hudson, managing director for Nuclear New Build at EDF, says that engineers are already addressing concerns about Flamanville. Lessons can be learned for Hinkley.

[Background: back in April, the French nuclear regulator discovered flawed steel in EDF’s reactor in Flamanville]

The Hinkley reactor pressure vessel is not made yet, so chances can be made if necessary, Cadoux-Hudson adds.

Q: Has a power station similar to Hinkley C been build before?

Cadoux-Hudson says not; Hinkley has taken lessons from Flamanville, and also from Japan’s Fukushima.

Labour’s Matthew Pennycook MP isn’t impressed with what he’s hearing this morning.

He tells the energy chiefs that:

If this power station was fuelled on confidence and passion it would be up and running, but it’s not.

The committee ask Zhu Minhong of China General Nuclear, EDF’s partner in the project, when he expects Hinkley to be signed off.

Zhu explains that CGN are happy to be involved in Hinkley, concluding that:

We are confident to say that this project will go ahead.

MP: Hinkley's future is in France's hands

Angus MacNeil, the committee chairman, nails it:

Isn’t the future of Hinkley Point C in the hands of the French government?

De Rivaz says the project is in “good hands” (sparking some tittering in the committee room).

He argues that the French government should be closely involved, as he is EDF’s major shareholder.

Updated

Conservative MP James Heappey moves in for the kill.

Heappey tells Vincent de Rivaz that he knows why EDF can’t give a categorical pledge to make the final investment decision in early May.

It’s because the French government is set to decide in early May on whether to recapitalise EDF.

Heappey says:

If the French government doesn’t commit to that recapitalisation, you can’t build us a power station because you’ve not got the cash.

De Rivaz repeats that he is fully confidence that the project will go ahead.

Heappey says it is “extraordinary”, given that confidence, that EDF won’t commit to make the final investment decision in early May. It doesn’t make sense to anyone, he adds.

Here’s our story about the possible recapitalisation of EDF:

The committee are concerned about the cost of (eventually) decommissioning Hinkley Point C. Is enough money being put aside?

De Rivaz says this cost is fully recognised in the contract -- it’s “an example of us and the UK government behaving in a responsible way”.

But MPs point out that the cost of cleaning up previous projects, such as Windscale/Sellafield has been massively higher than expected.

We’re in as different world today, De Rivaz insists. “What has been done badly in the past will not be done badly again”

Q: How much is Hinkley Point C actually going to cost? EDF say £18bn, but other estimates say £24.5bn

De Rivaz says the construction cost is £18bn. The larger figure comes from the European Union, and relates to another way by which the project could have been financed.

Q: It’s disappointing that you can’t tell us more about the discussions with the French government about new financial support for EDF. Can you assure us that they won’t be passed onto UK taxpayers in some way?

De Rivaz says various options are being discussed, including:

  • raising more capital,
  • paying dividends in shares rather than cash
  • selling non-core assets.

None of them would impact the UK taxpayer, he promises.

Q: Did EDF’s chief finance officer resign over the Hinkley project?

De Rivaz declines to comment on the reasons for Thomas Piquemal’s shock resignation in early March. But he insists that the company’s top executives support the project.

Q: Your shares fell 6% when your CFO resigned; won’t the impact be terrible if you don’t meet the early May deadline?

The project will go ahead, de Rivaz insists.

Updated

De Rivaz insists that EDF is being responsible by sorting out its finances before making the ‘final investment decision’ on Hinkley.

MPs don’t seem too impressed, though.

The energy and climate change committee want to know what’s holding EDF back from a final decision on the Hinkley project.

De Rivaz points says the fall in the oil price has put added strain on its finances, so it is in talks with the French government (its major shareholder) to finding a solution to these challenges.

We are a great company, 70 years old, finding ways to tackle these challenges he continues.

Q: Given EDF’s confidence, when will it actually take the final investment decision to build Hinkley?

It will be taken very soon, insists CEO Vincent de Rivaz.

Q: When exactly?

The French minister of economy and finance, Mr Macron, said early May.

Q: If there is no decision by 15th May, the UK government and public should be worried?

No-one should be worried about our commitment to a project in which we have spent more than £2bn.

Q: So, which day?

I don’t want to give a precise day, de Rivaz insists...

We cannot be more commited and more confident than we are.

But the committee remain unconvinced -- they want a firmer commitment, and are going to ink in 15 May are their own deadline.

EDF's Vincent de Rivaz
EDF’s Vincent de Rivaz today Photograph: Parliament Live

The committee question Vincent de Rivaz’s claim that Hinkley Point C is a good deal for the British public.

Q: We’ve heard that Hinkley is only economically fair if oil was $230 per barrel [it’s $40 today], so how can it be fair to customers?

De Rivaz replies that the project is seen as too financially risky in France, and too expensive in the UK, so on balance it is probably fair.

Greenpeace’s Doug Parr (who testified earlier) isn’t convinced.

The EDF CEO also points out that his company are taking the risks to build the plant. UK consumers will pay nothing until electricity is produced in 2025, he adds.

EDF chief: Hinkley Point C goes ahead

EDF chief executive Vincent de Rivaz has declared that the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant will proceed, despite concerns about the project.

He’s reading a statement to the energy and climate change committee now, which begins

I will start by saying, clearly and catagorically, that Hinkley Point C will go ahead.

That’s good news for the UK. It has been a long road. The project has successfully passed a huge number of regulatory, commercial and operational milestones.

De Rivas says EDF has the expertise needed, and a team and supply chain set up to build Hinkley C “on time and on budget”.

He says that EDF is confident that the project will deliver the highest standards of safety, and has “the strong support of the UK and French governments”.

De Rivas also touches on those concerns about the price of the project, saying:

We are confident and proud to be able to deliver this project, as it meets the UK’s need for reliable, affordable, low-carbon electricity.

It is a fair deal - fair for customers, fair for investors.

Energy expert: France should pull plug on Hinkley nuclear plant

A group of energy experts have told UK Parliament’s energy and climate change committee today that the Hinkley Point C nuclear project is very bad value for money, and should be scrapped.

The future of the new nuclear power plant was thrown into doubt last month when the finance chief of EDF, the state-controlled French energy company, resigned.

And Simon Taylor, lecturer in finance at Cambridge University, said, the best hope for most people concerned is that the French government decides to “pull the plug” on the deal.

It would preserve the rest of the nuclear options in the UK, as it would not cast any doubt on the UK’s underlying commitment

But if the UK cancels the project it could jeapodise all the other projects in the pipeline.

Douglas Parr of Greenpeace told MPs that such a project could only be built by a huge slab of public money, and political will.

Parr also heavily criticised the project, arguing that the cost of solar power and energy storage will both fall drastically in the next couple of decades, meaning Britain will be overpaying for Hinkley.

Peter Atherton of investment bank Jefferies predicted that Hinkley should prove highly profitable to EDF, thanks to the contract agreed with the UK government.

They’ve got a great, great deal, if they can build it on time and on budget.....Once it’s operational, that power station is going to be gold.

The committee will hear from EDF shortly....

Updated

The chairman of Lloyds of London has warned that Brexit would hurt its business.

John Nelson told Reuters this morning that:

“About 90 percent of our capital and business comes from outside the UK,”

“It would diminish our attraction as a market to invest in if we were not part of the EU.”

Lloyds is already finding conditions tougher - it posted a 30% drop in pre-tax profits this morning, partly due to record low interest rates cutting returns on its assets.

Sports Direct has confirmed to the City this morning that its profits this year will be at the bottom end of the guidance issued in January.

The announcement came a day after The Times published an interview with founder Mike Ashley, in which he warned:

“We are in trouble, we are not trading very well. We can’t make the same profit we made last year....”

That sent SPD’s shares down 12% at one stage yesterday. They’re down another 2% today.

Updated

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson, mayor of London, has begun testifying to the UK Treasury committee about the Eu referendum question.

Boris, who supports Brexit, is fielding questions about “the economic and financial costs and benefits of the UK’s EU membership”.

And he’s begun by arguing that the City would not suffer if Britain left the EU.

Our politics liveblogger, Andy Sparrow, says Boris’s appearance is his toughest test yet, in the undeclared contest to succeed David Cameron as PM. Andy is tracking the action in his liveblog.

Cheltenham Festival Horse Racing.

Over in the City, shares in bookmaker William Hill have slumped by 13% after it warned that online profits are below forecasts.

The company blamed unlucky results at Cheltenham last week - where it lost money every day. Good news for the punters.

William Hill also admits that new rules allowing online gamblers to ‘self-exclude’ themselves from its services are hitting revenues, and could knock £20m off profits. That suggests recent moves to help those with gambling problems are working.

Here’s another great chart from Jamie McGeever of Reuters, showing how demand for protection against a sterling crisis has soared:

Several economists have predicted that the pound would slump against the US dollar if the Brexit campaign win, from $1.41 today to perhaps $1.2 or lower.

Bank of England FPC to discuss EU risks

Bank of England Inflation reportepa04745993 Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney speaks to the press as he presents the Inflation Report at the Bank of England in London, Britain, 13 May 2015. The BOE is cutting the economic growth forecasts and expects the inflation rate to return to target within a year’s time. EPA/ANDY RAIN
Bank of England governor Mark Carney.

Brexit concerns will be high on the agenda at the Bank of England today.

The BoE’s Financial Policy Committee, which is charged with protecting financial stability, is holding its final meeting before the referendum. And the prospect of Britain voting to leaving the EU will be top of the agenda.

Two weeks ago, governor Mark Carney told MPs that Brexit was the single biggest domestic risk to economic stability, so officials should be drawing up contingency plans to handle a Leave vote.

Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank in London, told Bloomberg that the Bank of England will be worried about the impact on the City.

“Without a doubt, Brexit is the top of everyone’s agenda until June, and possibly after if we do vote to leave.”

“The FPC’s mandate is the financial system, so they’ll be looking at whether banks will be able to continue to do their business if there is a vote to leave. They may also talk about other risks to the financial sector, whether there would be an exodus of firms.”

Updated

City traders may also be reacting to the latest Referendum opinion poll, from ICM.

It showed that the Leave campaign are leading by 43% to 41%, with 16% still undecided.

Cost of hedging against pound volatility is surging

The cost of insuring against a sharp fall in the pound is soaring this morning, in another sign of Brexit jitteriness.

Three-month sterling volatility (which tracks contracts that protect against wild moves in the pound) has hit levels not seen since the last general election.

That shows that investors are expecting a serious shake-up over the next quarter.

Reuters has snapped the details:

  • STERLING/DOLLAR THREE-MONTH IMPLIED VOLATILITY JUMPS TO 14.50 PCT, HIGHEST SINCE MID-2010
  • EURO/STERLING THREE-MONTH IMPLIED VOLATILITY ALSO JUMPS TO 13.70 PERCENT, HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2009

In a sense, it’s not a surprise that it’s happening now - the referendum falls in exactly three month’s time. But it also shows considerable uncertainty over the result, which could easily feed through to other parts of the economy.

Pound falling this morning

The pound is losing ground this morning, as concerns over Britain’s upcoming EU referendum swirl through the City.

Serling has extended yesterday’s losses, and is down almost a half a cent since trading began in London, to $1.4168 against the US dollar.

That wipes out most of its recent recovery, and sends it towards the six-year lows seen last month.

Traders are citing the uncertainty over the June 23 referendum, and the possibility that the public could vote to break away from the EU.

Yesterday’s terrorist atrocities in Brussels could also be adding to Brexit concerns.

But as Kit Juckes of French bank Société Générale points out, there are other reasons to be bearish about sterling too.

We are now exactly three months away from the UK’s referendum on EU membership and some ‘Brexit’ protagonists have chosen to use the atrocities in Brussels as a campaigning tool.

The ‘remain’ campaign is based solely on warnings of how dreadful leaving would be, so the whole debate is thoroughly depressing. Meanwhile, slowing growth is hurting public finances, the Chancellor’s spending cuts are in a mess and so it’s no wonder the pound isn’t flavour of the month.

Introduction: Can corporate news shake things up?

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

There’s a pre-Easter feeling in the City this morning, as traders start to wind down for the long weekend. The market volatility of January and February is but a memory, as investors hunker down and ponder the state of the global economy.

From Melbourne, IG’s Chris Weston sums it up:

What we are seeing at present is about as dull as one will see. As detailed yesterday, it could be the shortened week, but it feels like market players have entered the saloon and tumbleweeds are rolling down the street.

So European markets are likely to be eerily calm.

The economic calendar is disappointingly threadbare this morning too, although we do get the latest US oil reserves count this afternoon.

But there’s a flurry of corporate news around this morning. Lloyds of London, retail chains Kingfisher and Game Digital, bookmaker William Hill, and furnishings group Laura Ashley are all issuing results. That might shake things up in the Square Mile.

And Swiss bank Credit Suisse has already announced 2,000 job cuts, as part of a restructuring plan:

We’ll be tracking the main events (such as we can find) through the day.....

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