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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Patrick Greenfield (now); and Andrew Sparrow (earlier)

Brexit: Barnier confirms deal not yet reached, saying 'key issues' unresolved despite 'intense efforts' - as it happened

Michel Barnier and Dominic Raab talk in Brussels in September.
Michel Barnier and Dominic Raab talk in Brussels in September. Photograph: Virginia Mayo/AFP/Getty Images

We are about to close the live blog. Thank you for commenting and following today’s developments.

The Brexit negotiations are on a knife-edge as Theresa May’s domestic vulnerability over the Irish border threatens to kill off hopes of an October deal, with the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, forced to make a dash to Brussels to seek more time from the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, write Daniel Boffey, Jennifer Rankin and Rajeev Syal.

Read the full story here:

Have a peaceful evening.

Ireland's ambassador to the UK: "time is running out"

Adrian O’Neill, Ireland’s ambassador to the UK, said the failure of the meeting between Dominic Raab and Michel Barnier was a setback and “time is running out” to reach a deal.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Westminster Hour that despite the day’s events “I suspect on all sides there is still a deep determination to try and move forward”.

O’Neill said a special EU summit pencilled in for November to sign off a Brexit agreement could instead end up being used as an emergency meeting to discuss “no deal” plans, according to PA.

He said: “Time is running out, there is no doubt about that. In all member states preparation for all eventualities are ramping up quite significantly.

“I think if at this week’s European council meeting there isn’t some way forward, well then I think we will probably see people could decide to avail of the opportunity for the November meeting to focus on preparations for a no-deal outcome. But I don’t think we are there yet, there is still a lot of negotiating to be done.”

Updated

Monday’s front pages include the Telegraph splashing with the prime minister refusing to sign off a Brexit agreement that keeps the UK in the customs union.

Metro writes that Brexit talks will go down to the wire.

The Times reports that ministers have been told to start implementing plans for a no-deal Brexit.

The Guardian tops with a setback for Theresa May as the Irish border issue derails Brexit talks.

Updated

It’s just after 10pm on a Sunday - time for Boris Johnson’s latest Telegraph column.

This week the former foreign secretary writes that staying in the EU’s customs union would be a “disastrous surrender of our country”. He’s even uses CAPITALS to make his point.

Updated

This from Peter Foster, the Europe editor of the Telegraph.

The BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg has been tweeting about today’s events.

The chief whip Julian Smith just posted this image on Twitter. Very mysterious. What could it mean?

We tried to call Mr Smith for comment but... Never mind.

Updated

These tweets are from Conservative MP Nick Boles, who withdrew his support for the Chequers deal last month and launched a campaign for a ‘Better Brexit’.

Number 10 "still committed" to Wednesday's EU summit

Number 10 and DExEu have said the UK is “still committed to making progress” at Wednesday’s EU summit but there are still a number of “unresolved issues” in a joint statement.

Evening summary

We will be keeping this blog open for some time yet to monitor further Brexit developments.

But here is tonight’s main story.

  • Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has confirmed that the UK and the EU have failed to reach a deal today on the Brexit withdrawal agreement. His announcement, which came after an unscheduled meeting with Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, means that there is now considerable doubt over whether this week’s EU summit will wrap up the Irish backstop aspect of Brexit, something EU leaders had hoped to agree on Thursday ahead of a possible summit in November that would conclude the entire pre-Brexit negotiation. Here is the full version from Daniel Boffey, Jennifer Rankin and Rajeev Syal.

And here are some of the Brexit developments around earlier.

  • David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, has used an article in the Sunday Times (paywall) to urge cabinet ministers to over-rule Theresa May and veto her proposed Brexit plan. Davis resigned because he was opposed to the Chequers proposals, which would keep the UK effectively in the single market for goods, and bound by the EU rulebook for these items. But in this article he focused most of his criticism on May’s willingness to keep the UK in the customs union for an indefinite period, as part of the Irish backstop, and on reports that May could extend the 21-month transition. He said:

The cabinet committee that governs EU negotiations has barely met since July. Instead, the decisions seem to have been taken by an ad hoc group. Other cabinet members have been excluded from the decisions and, in some cases, even the briefings.

This is one of the most fundamental decisions that government has taken in modern times. It is time for cabinet members to exert their collective authority. This week the authority of our constitution is on the line.

The EU has already offered us a Canada-style, zero-tariffs trade agreement, and Donald Tusk, president of the council, reinforced that offer last week. A good deal is clearly within our grasp. We must reset our negotiating strategy immediately and deliver a Brexit that meets the demands of the referendum and the interests of the British people.

The article came amid reports that some Brexiters want to install Davis as an interim leader to replace May. Nadine Dorries explicitly backed the idea on Twitter.

  • Another hardline Tory Brexiter, Andrea Jenkyns, said it would be better for the UK to “go down fighting” than to give in to the demands of Brussels.

(Jenkyns’ comment is not particularly significant in itself, but as an insight into one corner of the Brexiter mindset, it is fascinating. It is WW2 and 1940 all over again. There’s a whole book to be written about Brexit and the impact of the war on British national identity. Other countries lost and moved on. Arguably, we won and didn’t.)

  • The Sunday Times has claimed that up to 44 letters have now been sent to the chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 committee from Tory MPs demanding a vote of no confidence in May. If the chair, Sir Graham Brady, gets 48 letters, he has to call a vote.
  • The Sunday Times has claimed that at least four cabinet ministers - Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and David Mundell - are threatening to resign because they view the Irish backstop plan that May is close to agreeing as unacceptable. The Sunday Telegraph says at least 10 cabinet ministers would oppose the backstop plan, that would effectively keep the UK in the customs union, unless it contains a mechanism for the UK to extract itself. The EU wants any backstop to apply indefinitely, so long as it is needed to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
  • Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has said that any plan to keep the UK effectively in the customs union as part of the Irish backstop would be “temporary and time limited.” But, when asked on the Andrew Marr Show if there would be a date, he said: “There are different ways to ensure that something is time limited.” He suggested there could be conditions for “the point at the which arrangements come to an end”. Asked if there would be a “break” clause, allowing the UK to opt out when it wanted, he replied:

There are different ways that you can make sure that something is credibly time limited and that’s what I want to see.

  • Sixty three Conservative MPs have signed a European Research Group letter to Philip Hammond, the chancellor, urging him to release details of how the Treasury forecasts the economic impact of various Brexit options. The letter, published in the Sunday Telegraph (paywall), says:

The cross-Whitehall Brexit analysis leaked to the news website Buzzfeed early this year and subsequently ‘published’ in the form of 24 PowerPoint slides, forecasts a 7.7 per cent hit to GDP under a World Trade Deal under WTO rules and a 4.8 per cent contraction under Canada Plus. While all such forecasts are only indicators of orders of magnitude and general direction, independent private sector forecasts and those of Whitehall are wildly far apart, many of which forecast a positive impact on GDP. Such differences have huge consequences for Brexit strategy and the long-term trajectory of future public expenditure, taxation, and borrowing.

The ERG, which is pushing for a harder Brexit, does not say in the letter which independent forecasters think Brexit will be good for the economy. Most economic organisations that have produced forecasts agree with the Treasury that its effect will be negative.

  • Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, and David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, have said they will resign if May backs a Brexit deal that involves new border controls being imposed down the Irish Sea. (See 6.39pm.)
  • The Labour MP Caroline Flint has said that some of her colleagues would vote to support a “reasonable” Brexit deal. It is thought the party will whip its MPs to vote against the deal May brings back from Brussels. But, in an interview with Sky, when asked about claims around 30 Labour MPs might vote with the government in favour of such a deal, Flint said:

I think if a reasonable deal is on the table the question for some of my Labour colleagues is ‘why wouldn’t you support a deal, why would you stand along [with] Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg who want us to crash out without a deal?’

The Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman thinks this is significant.

  • Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has said that Labour MPs would not back a deal that amounted to “a bridge to nowhere”. In a BBC interview she said:

We said we wanted a meaningful vote and we can’t see why we should have, on the one hand Theresa May’s nonsense and on the other hand a no deal, because that’s what they’re threatening us with. If she comes back with something that’s just a fudge she’s cooked up with Brussels ... we’re not voting for something that’s essentially a bridge to nowhere.

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Patrick Greenfield is now taking over.

Updated

People’s Vote, which is campaigning for a second referendum, has put out this statement from the Labour MP Chuka Umunna. He said:

Every snippet and semi-substantiated rumour that emerges about a prospective ‘deal’ only serves to confirm it will be bad for the British people, for British jobs and nothing like the Brexit which was promised.

The Brexit elite have decided they can resolve none of the difficult questions and as a result are opting for a blindfold Brexit that will leave us stuck in negotiations and disputes for years to come. They had one job to do – and they said it would be the simplest thing ever: to agree a comprehensive trade deal. It looks very much like they have flunked it.

Some things are certain though. British taxpayers are being landed with a bill for at least £50bn and will have no say on how that is spent. British manufacturers are going to be hobbled in their biggest market place and there will be no prospect of signing any of the trade deals the Brexiters promised us. Service industries – which make up 80% of our economy – are getting less than nothing from this deal and are just being cut loose. The issue of the Irish border has still not been fully resolved.

The more the British people see about this deal, the angrier they will get. Whether people voted leave or remain doesn’t matter any more, because we are all being short changed by this travesty.

He also claims that next Saturday would see the biggest ever Brexit march when people demonstrate in London for a second referendum.

Updated

These are from Sky’s Mark Stone.

More from Jennifer.

This is from my colleague Jennifer Rankin.

Robert Peston, ITV’s political editor, thinks the inability to reach an agreement today has increased the chances of this week’s EU summit ending in failure.

Michael Russell, the Scottish government’s constitutional relations secretary, says Ruth Davidson and David Mundell are making themselves look ridiculous with their threat to resign. (See 6.39pm.)

Katya Adler, the BBC’s Europe editor,

This, from the FT’s George Parker (quoting the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves), sums up the situation well - and explains why it is hard for reporters to know quite how seriously they should take “talks break down” moments in negotiations. My colleague Daniel Boffey has been saying something similar. See 5.35pm.

Parker also says there are no Raab/Barnier talks scheduled for Monday.

Barnier says 'key issues' unresolved in Brexit talks despite 'intense efforts'

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has now posted this on Twitter about his meeting with Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary.

This is interesting because he is saying “some key issues” remain unresolved. In other words, it is not just the Irish backstop - although that is widely seen as the main problem area.

Davidson and Mundell threaten to resign if Brexit deal creates new border in Irish Sea

Ruth Davidson, the highly-regarded pro-European leader of the Scottish Tories, and her ally David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, have told May in writing they will resign their positions if there is a hard border between Northern Ireland and the UK after Brexit.

They have told May that agreeing to a deal which allows Northern Ireland to remain in a form of customs union with Ireland and the rest of the EU but excludes the rest of the UK, would fuel calls for Scottish independence.

It would strengthen the case being made by Nicola Sturgeon that promises made in the 2014 independence referendum about preserving the UK’s internal market were worthless, they warned the prime minister.

They have told May:

Having fought just four years ago to keep our country together, the integrity of our United Kingdom remains the single most important issue for us in these negotiations.

Sturgeon is making a major speech to the Royal Academy of the Arts on Monday where she will underscore the significance of that stance for Scotland, which voted heavily for remain in June 2016, by again demanding the UK remains in both the single market and customs union.

Two of the most committed pro-European Tories, Davidson and Mundell’s threats are designed to shore up the government’s Europhile wing as a counterweight to the demands from Brexiteers in the party for a hard Brexit deal.

Their letter continues:

Any deal that delivers a differentiated settlement for Northern Ireland beyond the differences that already exist on all Ireland basis (eg agriculture), or can be brought under the provisions of the Belfast agreement, would undermine the integrity of our UK internal market and this United Kingdom.

[We] could not support any deal that creates a border of any kind in the Irish Sea and undermines the union or leads to Northern Ireland having a different relationship with the EU than the rest of the UK, beyond what currently exists.

Nicola Sturgeon may be updating her RSA speech in light of today’s fast-moving events, but in an advance text released by the Scottish government, she urged May to recognise there was a cross-party coalition which supported a softer Brexit. She said:

It [is] simply incorrect for the prime minister to say that there is no alternative to Chequers. In fact, the UK government’s position is increasingly absurd. Insisting on pursuing proposals they have been told will not work while rejecting a plan that will.

With crucial decisions coming up over the next few weeks and months at EU level - and in the House of Commons where the UK government must seek the approval of the UK parliament - it is vital to break the deadlock.

For the prime minister and the UK government it is time to face reality. For MPs at Westminster it is time to come together in a common sense coalition to minimise the Brexit damage.

Ruth Davidson and David Mundell
Ruth Davidson and David Mundell Photograph: Hannah Mckay/Reuters

This is from the Financial Times’ George Parker.

This is from Politico Europe’s Ryan Heath.

And here is the latest Politco Europe take on the talks.

While the meeting of “sherpas”, senior officials planning the EU summit, scheduled for tomorrow has been cancelled, Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has got a meeting arranged in Dublin on Monday with Leo Varadkar, the taoiseach. That suggests she thinks there is still time to influence what gets decided on the backstop.

EU ambassadors told Brexit deal still not yet agreed because of deadlock over whether backstop temporary

EU ambassadors being debriefed by Michel Barnier, the bloc’s chief negotiator, have been told that there is no deal, and that there are serious remaining issues over the Irish border question.

The meeting in Brussels is ongoing.

The Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, was with Barnier for just over an hour before the briefing.

One senior EU diplomat said that the British did not believe they had enough on the temporary nature of the customs union aspect of the backstop to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. The UK wants it to be time-limited, but Brussels is resisting.

“Raab had come here for a concession”, the diplomat said. “They don’t have enough.”

The source did not dissuade me from the view that much of this is political theatre designed to help the prime minister sell the backstop at a later date back home.

However a meeting of the leaders’ ‘sherpas’, the officials who are the most senior heads of state and government, that was due to take place on Monday afternoon to sign off on any deal, has now been cancelled. That is ominous.

Michel Barnier in profile
Michel Barnier in profile Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters

Updated

This is from Politico Europe’s Florian Eder.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, is heading back to the UK tonight, a source says.

EU ambassadors told Brexit deal still not agreed

This is from my colleague Daniel Boffey.

It is hard to find anyone at Westminster, or in the politico-media commentariat generally, who thinks the UK government has handled the Brexit negotiations with great success.

But, according to this tweet from the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, at least there are some challenges our foreign policy establishment can master.

(In his caption, Hunt is trying to make a similar joke, but he has got it back to front. As the pic shows, they cracked the maze. But they haven’t cracked Brexit.)

Updated

This is from Politico Europe’s Tom McTague on their “deal done” story.

This is from my colleague Pippa Crerar.

The Telegraph’s James Crisp says he has been told be be sceptical of the Politico Europe deal done report. (See 5.33pm.)

Here is Daniel Boffey, the Guardian’s Brussels bureau chief, on what’s going on.

While Reuters and British journalists are reporting that a deal has not been agreed, Politico Europe, in a story filed about 40 minutes ago, is saying the opposite.

But the story is a bit more tentative than the “Negotiators reach Brexit divorce deal” headline. Here’s an excerpt.

One EU diplomat stressed “that the deal is at negotiator level [only],” so much could still change. Last week, diplomats were told a deal had been done by negotiators only for it to unravel amid continuing talks ...

If the putative deal does not hit any road blacks with ambassadors it will move to EU27 ministers at the general affairs council meeting on Tuesday. Diplomats also cautioned that it could still be blocked by ministers in London or potentially by the Democratic Unionist party who vote with Theresa May’s ruling Conservative party in the House of Commons ...

The diplomats who said a deal had been struck were cautious, and one expressed particular concerns about how the package would be received in the UK. May has struggled from the outset to navigate her Brexit strategy through the warring camps and interest groups: hard and soft Brexiteers, remainers, and hard-core unionists, citizens rights’ advocates and business and industry concerns.

But even if some details were not nailed down, the flurry of activity over the weekend underscored the intensity with which negotiators were pushing to show major gains in the negotiations before the Wednesday European Council summit.

This is from ITV’s Paul Brand.

Updated

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, is expecting to tweet news of latest developments at 5.30pm UK time, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll reports.

Updated

This is from the Financial Times’ George Parker.

EU ambassadors meet for update as sources dismiss claims deal agreed tonight

This is from the Financial Times’ Alex Barker.

And Reuters is saying much the same thing. The agency has just filed this.

Weekend negotiations in Brussels between British and EU officials have not yet produced a final Brexit deal for leaders to approve this week, senior EU sources told Reuters on Sunday.

Some EU diplomats following the talks closely have been more optimistic that EU negotiators would tell a 1630 GMT meeting of national envoys on Sunday that a deal had been achieved.

But other sources told Reuters that further talks would be needed to get the agreement both sides want.

Updated

The Press Association has just filed this.

A senior UK government source played down reports that a deal had been done.

“It’s very much in the EU’s interests to make it look like there is a deal,” the source said, because it would then leave the UK looking “like we are the ones being intransigent”.

There are still some “big issues” to be resolved and “Dominic [Raab] has gone out there to try to resolve the outstanding issues”.

Updated

EU ambassadors meet amid speculation about final agreement

The EU summit starting with a dinner on Wednesday night has been dubbed a “moment of truth” for Brexit by Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, and there was speculation about details of a deal emerging on Monday or Tuesday, when the cabinet will meet to sign of on any proposal. But things seem to be moving faster than we expected. Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has been in Brussels for talks today and EU ambassadors have been summoned to a meeting at 5.30pm UK time to hear an update.

Tonight we may, or may not, get a major breakthrough. Either way, I will be blogging to keep you in touch with the latest developments.

Here is our latest story.

And here is how it starts.

The UK Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, is holding crunch talks with the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, after making an unexpected dash to Brussels days ahead of a “moment of truth” leaders’ summit.

Raab arrived in the Belgian capital on Sunday for a 4pm meeting, with the talks expected to last late into the night, sources close to the Brexit secretary said.

The European council president, Donald Tusk, had told Theresa May last month he needed to see “maximum progress” on the issue of avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland by the European council meeting of leaders starting on Wednesday evening.

A UK government spokesperson said: “Brexit secretary Dominic Raab will be in Brussels this afternoon to meet with Michel Barnier. With several big issues still to resolve, including the Northern Ireland backstop, it was jointly agreed that face-to-face talks were necessary ahead of this week’s October European council.”

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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