Bolton Wanderers are still favourites to earn promotion, despite their Easter Monday setback against Newport County.
That's according to statistical experts FiveThirtyEight, who have crunched all the numbers to deliver their predicted League Two table as we enter the final stages of the campaign.
Nicky Maynard's second-half strike condemned Ian Evatt's side to their first defeat since January with Wanderers enjoying an astonishing 14-game unbeaten streak that has seen them move into automatic promotion contention.
They now sit fourth in the table, level on points with Tranmere Rovers but behind on goal difference while Morecambe are hot on their tails.
It's expected to go down to the wire with some tough fixtures on the horizon, including trips to Morecambe and Salford City.
Our friends at FiveThirtyEight expect Bolton to sneak an automatic promotion spot from the clutches of Tranmere, rating the probability of their promotion at 48%. Cheltenham Town and Cambridge United remain favourites for promotion, with FiveThirtyEight rating the probability of the pair finishing in the top three as 94%.
The probability of Bolton winning League Two? That's ranked at 3%, with Wanderers looking to overhaul a seven point deficit - although they do hold a game in hand over Cambridge.
We've plotted the predicted promotion picture below.
League Two predicted table
1. Cheltenham Town - 81 points
2. Cambridge United - 81 points
3. Bolton Wanderers - 75 points
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4. Tranmere Rovers - 75 points
5. Morecambe - 73 points
6. Forest Green Rovers - 72 points
7. Newport County - 71 points
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