Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is consolidating just below its all-time highs near $117,000, and traders are now asking the big question: will this bull run follow the traditional 4-year cycle or break the mould?
What Happened: In a recent deep-dive, Crypto Amsterdam broke down how to think about cycle tops and profit-taking without trying to "perfectly time" the market.
Rather than obsessing over nailing the absolute peak, the trader recommends a structured exit strategy based on cycle trends, price discovery, and broader market dynamics.
Key insights from the trader's strategy:
- Classic 4-year cycle logic still applies: from bottoming out to explosive upside, followed by a late-stage altcoin rally and falling Bitcoin dominance.
- But the chance of a "super cycle", driven by institutional adoption and macro shifts, makes sitting entirely in fiat risky.
- A balanced approach: accumulate early, scale out gradually as BTC and alts reach upper bands.
- Exit planning should be tied to chart levels, BTC dominance, and sector rotations to avoid emotional roundtrips and secure long-term gains.
Also Read: The Bitcoin ETF Boom Is Here — But Is It Built To Last?
Why It Matters: While prices have surged, on-chain signals suggest this rally may be more resilient than previous cycles.
Santiment data shows a continued drop in BTC on exchanges, a trend that typically limits the risk of sudden, panic-driven corrections.
Over the last four months, 315,830 BTC, a 21% drop, has moved into self-custody.
Since July 2020, that number stands at a staggering 1.88 million BTC (61%).
This mass exodus from exchanges suggests that long-term holders are showing strong conviction, opting to hold through volatility rather than take profits too early leading to panic-driven sell-offs.
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