Crypto markets could see a shift this July, but analysts emphasize that Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) movement around the $110,000 mark will determine whether the market breaks higher or stays in a holding pattern.
What Experts Are Saying: According to Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo Dispatch, this summer may break from the traditional slowdown seen in past July-to-September periods.
Kalchev noted that steady inflows into crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), alongside continued corporate accumulation of Bitcoin and Ethereum, are helping build a foundation for further upside.
"Long-term holders are showing no signs of exiting," Kalchev told Benzinga, suggesting that confidence in the market's long-term prospects remains intact.
Kalchev also pointed to a steady expansion of U.S. money supply (M2), which recently crossed $21.9 trillion, a level of liquidity that often supports risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Derivatives markets appear to reflect this optimism.
Bitcoin options expiring in late July are pricing in a potential move toward $113,000, with some September contracts suggesting the possibility of a push toward $140,000.
Ethereum's (CRYPTO: ETH) derivatives also show strong bullish positioning, with options expiring this month showing concentrated interest at the $3,200 level.
However, Kalchev cautioned that much depends on the Federal Reserve's next steps.
Should upcoming labor market data weaken, expectations for rate cuts may intensify, potentially creating the right conditions for an altcoin rally.
Also Read: Anthony Scaramucci Predicts Bitcoin Treasury Frenzy ‘Will Fade’
Why It Matters: Still, the outlook isn't entirely straightforward.
Speaking with Benzinga, Georgii Verbitskii, founder of crypto investment app TYMIO, said the market remains uncertain as Bitcoin tests the upper boundary of its recent range.
"If Bitcoin can break and sustain levels above $110,000, we could see a gradual move higher," Verbitskii said. "But if the price fails to hold above that threshold, sideways trading will likely continue, making it a less favorable environment for aggressive positions."
Patience, Verbitskii emphasized, is essential in the current setup.
The signal to move in size, he noted, will only come if Bitcoin can establish support above $110,000 for several days.
James Harris, Group CEO at Tesseract, also sees a bullish setup for July.
Harris pointed out that historically, July has been a strong month for Bitcoin, second only to November over the past decade.
He added that markets are now pricing in significant rate cuts, up to 100 basis points, by the end of the year, which would likely support a Bitcoin breakout toward $125,000.
"Ethereum is currently underowned and may start to outperform as the market adjusts," Harris said, though he added that it remains uncertain whether the conditions are fully in place for a sustained altcoin rally.
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