So long, farewell
Thanks so much for your company this evening for this pop-up edition of Politics Live. It’s been all kinds of fun times.
Let’s part with a summary of tonight’s people’s forum.
-
Bill Shorten has addressed one hundred swinging voters in the government’s most marginal electorate, the Queensland seat of Petrie.
- Shorten used the opportunity to outline Labor’s messages on health and schools and climate change, and held out the prospect of more investment in childcare, action to ensure health consumers didn’t face extensive out of pocket costs for procedures like pathology screening, “stomping” on the private health insurance industry to contain premium increases, more government intervention to keep industries in Australia like the steel industry, and potential subsidies to employers to encourage them to hire more mature aged workers.
- The Labor leader said he made no apologies for being nationalistic about Australian jobs. He told voters at the forum Labor had learned from the last period in government: it had learned to be united, it had learned to produce costed policies, and it had learned to seek a mandate from voters by clearly outlining policy alternatives.
- There was also a mildly random punchbowl analogy but I don’t think you are missing much by me failing to explain that one.
- The Labor leader faced no questions about negative gearing, about asylum boats, about budget repair (except one question which referred in general terms to Labor’s economic management), about Labor’s relationship with trade unions – suggesting voters (at least this group) aren’t really picking up on the government’s key attack lines against Labor. If I were the government I’d be a bit concerned about that, but it is only one small sample of voters.
- An exit poll taken after the event suggested 68% of participants at the people’s forum are more likely to vote Labor than they were before this evening, 9% were less likely and 23% were undecided.
That’s about the long and short of it.
I’ll be back in live mode when federal parliament resumes on April 18, if not before. Until then, live large.
So how did Shorten perform?
A few thoughts on tonight. That wasn’t a tough town hall as political town halls go. Shorten had to bring up Labor’s negative gearing policy himself because he didn’t get a question on it.
I think there was a fair dose of waffle, particularly in the opening few questions. He took a while to sharpen up. It’s always a balance in these things for politicians between answering the specific questions they are asked and getting your pre-determined message out, and I don’t think Shorten achieved that balance in every question. Mostly he was personably non-specific.
As a general comment, Shorten’s communications have sharpened up considerably in recent months. He’s dropped the silly zingers and the epic digressions that once characterised his daily outings, and the messaging has got tighter and tidier. Tonight wasn’t back to King of Zing territory by any means – that would be an unfair reflection – but he wasn’t really hitting it sharply enough.
What did we learn tonight of a substantive nature? Not very much, if the relevant measure is new facts or new insights.
We learned Labor wouldn’t go back to the drawing board entirely on the national broadband network, it will absorb the Turnbull NBN and supplement with fibre – I think that’s a new thought.
We also learned Labor might give money to the steel firm Arrium.
A prime minister Shorten would also stomp on the private health insurance industry (whatever that means, he didn’t really specify beyond a generalised threat to withdraw taxpayer support). Shorten also acknowledged Labor’s carbon price in government was “too high” – which is interesting, but not all that surprising, given where Labor is heading generally on climate policy.
But the audience in Redcliffe gave the performance a solid thumbs up.
An exit poll taken after the event suggests 68% of that teensy sample at the people’s forum are more likely to vote Labor than they were before this evening, 9% were less likely and 23% were undecided.
That’s the end of the questions. Shorten is lingering in the room to take questions from people who didn’t make the cut on the broadcast tonight.
I’ll come back shortly and work through the sum of tonight’s parts.
.@BillShortenMP responds to question about disparity of benefits between politicians and the public. #peoplesforum https://t.co/AAGXjAeljK
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) April 7, 2016
Question ten is about politician’s superannuation. It’s too generous. What will you do to get politician’s super more in line with community standards?
Shorten says he’s on the lower tier parliamentary super scheme, which is not a defined benefits scheme. So if he loses his job in politics, he will have to go and find another job.
He pushes off the wall quickly onto the general. He’ll work to boost super adequacy for ordinary workers. When, Speers asks? Sooner than the Liberals, he says. Shorten says Labor will also work on gender pay. Part of the adequacy problem is about women earning less than men and having career breaks.
Question nine is about health insurance and the private health system.
Shorten says private health insurance premiums are rising too fast. Increases have been rampant, he says. A courageous government would stomp on them.
Speers asks how Bill Shorten would stomp on the insurers?
He says as prime minister, he’d call in the CEOs of the funds and point out how much subsidy they currently get from the taxpayers. The inference being that might not continue unless they lower premiums.
Speers persists. How would you get them to reduce premiums?
Bill Shorten:
I’m not going to reveal the dark arts of how I negotiate.
Shorten says it’s just a matter of being persistent and serious, then you get results.
Updated
We’ve taken until question eight to hit the self funded retiree, who would like more out of the government. What will a Labor government do for me?
Shorten says health, principally. Labor will make sure Medicare is protected and consumers don’t face too many out of pocket costs for things like pathology tests. He says Labor is also looking at the changes the government made to assets tests for part pensioners. Labor opposed those changes.
Speers asks Shorten whether Labor would reverse the government change?
We are looking at how its working.
.@BillShortenMP on plans to change the #NBN and boost IT education funding. #peoplesforum https://t.co/Kqgi7Dp5OM
— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) April 7, 2016
Question seven is on the NBN. What’s going to happen there now?
Shorten says Labor will outline its NBN policy shortly, but the opposition will not rip up all of what Malcolm Turnbull has done, but instead supplement the current build with more fibre.
Question six is from a university student, Henry, who wants an answer on Labor’s economic stewardship (given during the last period of government there was pink batts and a poorly implemented carbon price and other poor decisions.) Has Labor learned from mistakes?
Shorten says Labor weren’t poor economic managers. There was a global financial crisis. In terms of the learnings ..
We’ve learned to be united.
It’s fundamental.
Shorten says Labor is currently spelling out how it will pay for its policies. He says Labor is also sticking with hard issues, like carbon pricing, rather than play small target politics.
Speers asks whether Labor was wrong on the carbon price.
Bill Shorten:
The price was too high, but that doesn’t mean we walk away from real action on climate change.
Shorten outlines the differences between his economic vision and the government’s economic world view.
Henry feels that’s a false dichotomy rather than a statement of competing philosophies.
Shorten says everyone has opinions and this is what these forums are about. Give me your opinion and then ask a question.
The fourth question is from a mature aged worker who is clearly unimpressed with having to fill out selection criteria. Shorten understands the concern, and says Labor will have a policy on encouraging the employment of mature aged workers.
Now, at five, we have Belinda, a music teacher, who clearly likes Malcolm Turnbull’s ideas boom. Will Labor keep it?
Bill Shorten:
Of course we believe in an ideas boom, who is against ideas?
He says if you want an ideas boom then you have to properly fund schools. The government is not funding schools properly. Labor believes in needs-based education funding. Also if you are into an ideas boom, you don’t sack CSIRO scientists, Shorten says. He says Labor will fund the capacity for an ideas boom, not just talk about it.
(That’s the sharpest answer tonight.)
The third question is why don’t we tax religious organisations in secular society?
Shorten dances around that one, empathising but giving no commitments on taxing churches. He says he will deliver a vote on marriage equality (which does sound a little like, but wait, here’s a new set of steak knives.)
The questioner appears unimpressed. What a missed opportunity for funding, she notes.
The second question is why should I vote Labor presaged by a bit of personal narrative. I’m an ordinary bloke with a couple of kids in childcare. It’s very expensive. (He’s a shift worker.)
Shorten really wants to get out from behind his podium in Brisbane. The Labor leader is unloading the shopping list of Labor’s policies, on childcare, on schools, on healthcare, on negative gearing (which he frames as both a housing affordability policy and budget repair) and climate change.
Shorten says Labor thinks about the future. He says the ALP will also protect rights at work.
That’s in the DNA of the Labor party I lead.
Speers asks the questioner whether that answers his concerns about the cost of childcare? Our questioner says, a little, but until something actually happens ..
Speers asks Shorten whether Labor will reduce the cost of childcare?
Bill Shorten:
I think our policies will keep downward pressure on fees.
We’d allocate more money to the childcare priority.
I should note Shorten’s answer there was a distance from the question – I think that fellow was more interested in lowering the costs of doing business than in industry policy.
Moving on.
Into questions now. The first question is about what Labor will do to reduce the costs for business given economic conditions are delicate – we see firms like Arrium (the steel maker) in deep trouble.
Shorten opens his answer with the specifics of Arrium. He says he’s knows something about the company because he used to represent the workers as a trade union official.
Bill Shorten:
Is there a role for government to help business? Yes there is.
He’s going through what he told reporters today: we need to look at anti-dumping protections to ensure there is not unfair competition from super cheap imports; and we need to boost local procurement. Governments also need to prioritise local procurement in contracts. He also flags co-investment (a fancy term, he notes). Co-investment is, as Shorten notes, a fancy word for governments giving money to firms. It’s a more modern locution for industry policy. Economic purists would also call this a new fashioned rhetorical construction for what we used to call picking winners.
Shorten says he makes no apologies for being an economic nationalist.
Sky political editor David Speers interjects, would the government co-invest in Arrium?
Shorten says some industries are nationally significant.
We’ve got to back our jobs here.
(A yes, in other words, without a direct yes.)
Shorten says Labor has ticked the boxes of being a strong opposition. Now, tonight, he wants to present Labor as a strong alternative government.
The Labor leader says he’s here to outline positive plans on schools and health and the NBN and housing affordability. He says he’s also here so voters can get to know him better. Shorten says he’ll learn from what voters are interested in.
Bill Shorten kicks off with opening remarks
I’m here tonight because I think we need to change politics in this country.
Shorten opens proceedings on that sweeping note. He says he doesn’t know what’s coming but he’s happy to take all questions. He notes he’s accompanied by wife Chloe, who is a Queenslander.
Folks are seated in the venue now. Very close to kick off.
"I’m not afraid of meeting people."
Campaigning in Brisbane today, Shorten was asked what he expected out of tonight’s event. This was his answer.
Q: What are you expecting out of the people’s forum in Petrie tonight? It’s the most marginal in Australia.
Bill Shorten:
I’m looking forward to attending the people’s forum which is being covered by Sky and the Courier Mail and to answer people’s questions.
A lot of Australians feel that their individual involvement in politics isn’t worth doing because they feel they can’t change things. I’m not afraid of meeting people. I don’t need to go to sanitised events where the Liberal party tick off who can come and who can’t. We’re happy that Galaxy’s picked a whole lot of people who are undecided voters; they can come and ask me any question.
I don’t expect that every answer I’ll give them will be the exact answer that everyone wants to hear. But people are making assessments about what is the character of the leader or the person who wishes to lead a government. I’m prepared to demonstrate to people that I’ll work hard, that I’ll answer their questions honestly. I won’t always get everything done exactly in the way in which everyone wants, but no-one will have any doubt that what I say is what I mean and that I’m in touch with the needs of everyday Australians.
That is why Labor has the best policies for Aussie jobs, for a properly funded health care system where it’s your Medicare card not your credit card that determines the level of health care. That’s why we are the only party offering to properly fund our schools and our universities and TAFE sector, that will take real action on climate change through prioritising renewable energy. And by the way we believe in a fair taxation system so that first home owners can compete to buy their first home on a level playing field with property speculators going for their tenth property.
Labor’s internal research also suggests voters don’t know a whole lot about Bill Shorten. He had a relatively high profile as a trade union leader before entering parliament, but these days that only gets you known among people who engage with politics regularly. Shorten was only a cabinet minister briefly in the last Labor government, he hasn’t been treasurer or deputy leader – so from the point of view of the average voter, he’s something of a blank slate.
Again it will be interesting tonight (from my perspective at least) to see if these folks seek more information about Shorten as a person and a politician, or if they are more issues focussed.
Updated
I’ll be quite interested to see the weight of the questions tonight – the level of voter interest in Labor’s policies will give us an insight into how much various issues are cutting through. Normally you’d expect to see a lot of interest in health, education, mental health, foreign investment and aged care at events like this. I’ll be interested to see whether Labor’s negative gearing policy gets much of a workout.
Good evening good people of blogue
Hello and welcome to tonight’s pop up Politics Live, it’s most delightful to be back with you all. With the scent of an election wafting assertively in our flaring nostrils, we gallop tonight into live coverage of the Labor leader Bill Shorten who will face a group of undecided voters in BrisVegas in a town hall style Q&A, minus Tony Jones and that set that vaguely resembles a crime scene.
The Labor leader will address 150 people identified by the polling company Galaxy as swinging voters at the Redcliffe RSL. Tonight’s forum is taking place in the marginal Brisbane electorate of Petrie, which is currently held by the Coalition on a margin of 0.5%. Petrie is the government’s most marginal seat. Tonight’s broadcaster is Sky News, and the event is also sponsored by the Courier Mail. Kick off is at 6.30pm eastern time, so there is still time to refresh your beverages, and crack open the corn chips.
Just a little bit of scene setting.
This will be obvious to politics tragics, but if you are a reader who tends to ration your exposure to politics in the interests of preserving your sanity: we are now firmly in the faux campaign period, where both sides of politics are road testing their machines and their messages before the big election battle.
Shorten right now has the luxury of not having to cloister himself away prepare a budget, so he’s been out and about on the hustings in recent weeks. Perth earlier this week. Brisbane today.
Labor was also given a psychological boost earlier this week with a Newspoll showing the Coalition falling behind on the two party preferred measure for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull took the leadership from Tony Abbott last year.
Shorten has done a few of these town hall style hustings over the period he’s been opposition leader but to my best recollection this is the first one that’s been televised. Inevitably, as we move into the campaign proper, both leaders will do more forums like this one, town hall things in marginal seats, as well as head-to-head debates.
Let’s crack on with our evening’s business.
The Politics Live comments thread is now wide open for your business, so get into it. You know you want to. You can also talk to me on Twitter or Facebook if that’s your preference. You can find me on the twits @murpharoo and my Facebook politics forum is here.
Plump up your bean bags. Here comes the people’s forum.
