Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates warned on Thursday that U.S. foreign aid cuts could trigger a catastrophic global health crisis, citing new research projecting millions of additional deaths by 2040.
What Happened: “The facts are simple and devastating: Aid cuts have already cost lives, and the number of deaths will continue to rise,” Gates wrote on X, referencing multiple studies documenting the impact of reduced American assistance.
A preprint study published in The Lancet analyzed the cumulative effects of U.S. aid reductions across 80 countries. The research projects 8 million additional child deaths before age five by 2040, while warning of 15.2 million excess AIDS deaths and 2.2 million additional tuberculosis deaths between 2025-2040.
The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw funding from Gavi, the vaccine alliance, particularly concerns health experts. Since 2000, Gavi has delivered vaccines to 1.1 billion children globally. The organization estimates that without continued U.S. support, 75 million children will miss vaccinations over five years, resulting in 1.2 million preventable deaths.
UNAIDS analysis indicates that ending the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) programs could cause 4.2 million additional HIV-related deaths by 2029. PEPFAR, launched in 2003, has saved over 26 million lives and enabled 7.8 million HIV-free births.
Gates emphasized the cost-effectiveness of global health investments, noting that lifesaving vaccines cost as little as 30 cents. “With a relatively small amount of money, you can do a great deal of good for a great many people,” he stated.
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Why It Matters: U.S. global health spending represents less than 1% of the federal budget, according to KFF budget tracking data. The Gates Foundation recently pledged $1.6 billion over five years to Gavi, attempting to offset some funding shortfalls.
The research used established mathematical models across HIV, tuberculosis, family planning, and maternal health sectors. Multiple modeling approaches consistently projected severe health impacts if U.S. funding cuts continue without alternative support.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) called PEPFAR “a bipartisan priority of Congress,” warning that cutting disease prevention funding would be “extraordinarily ill-advised and short-sighted.”
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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