President Joe Biden will seek to salvage relations with Saudi Arabia and boost Israel’s beleaguered government in a Mideast trip that risks political embarrassment unless near-record U.S.. gasoline prices swiftly come back to Earth.
In Saudi Arabia, Biden will restore relations with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, a leader he decried as a “pariah” after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, in hopes of securing a boost in oil production that might help ease pump prices battering his approval ratings at home.
But a deal isn’t a given, particularly because Biden must avoid an embarrassing retrenchment on human rights that would further anger the liberal Democrats whose desperately needed support is already eroded.
The trip’s secondary objective is hardly easier: aligning Israel, a country consumed by years-long domestic political turmoil, with the Arab world as a buttress against Iran.
Biden himself arrives hamstrung with the lowest approval rating of his presidency, and facing a bitter reckoning in November’s midterm elections without a dramatic turn in his favor.
“We are clear eyed that the region remains full of challenges and threats,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters on Monday.
For Biden, the biggest goal of the trip is convincing Persian Gulf countries – led by the Saudis – to increase oil production in a bid to combat prices at the pump.
White House officials have insisted that the trip’s scope is far broader than a simple mission to boost oil output. They say the U.S. will only convey a general view to the Saudis and Gulf allies that there should be greater supply in global markets, rather than detailing a specific number of barrels.
But that insistence is intended to paper over two realities — that the White House doesn’t want to acknowledge how the energy situation has forced Biden’s hand, and that Saudi Arabia does not want to appear to be acting unilaterally on production, upsetting the delicate diplomacy that has held the OPEC+ cartel together through the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
From pariah to partner
Those familiar with West Wing dynamics acknowledge that the decision to consider Saudi Arabia more a partner than pariah was hastened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As Russian troops amassed at the border late last year, Biden’s aides argued aggressively that the U.S. should seek to repair ties with Riyadh – despite reservations voiced by both the president himself and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. One official described Russia’s aggression as a paradigm-shifting event that changed the U.S. perception of the kingdom.
Russia’s invasion pushed the price for an average gallon of gasoline for American drivers over $5 last month. The U.S. is primed to release new consumer price index data on Wednesday that may show inflation rose to nearly 9% in June from the same month a year ago. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre predicted Monday a “highly elevated” topline figure.
And voters are dismayed: 58% of those surveyed in a New York Times and Siena College poll released Monday described the nation’s economic conditions as “poor” and only one-third of voters approve of the president’s job performance.
It’s possible that the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates could announce increased production to compensate for the under-performance of countries like Nigeria and Angola under the current OPEC+ agreement extending through November, according to Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital markets.
The White House is also likely to seek help backfilling Russian exports as new shipping and insurance sanctions from Europe hit this winter, and as leaders attempt to implement a price cap on the sale of Russian oil.
The U.S. believes “there is a capacity for further steps that could be taken,” Sullivan said.
But while political analysts and energy experts are united in saying Biden would benefit from an oil production agreement, they’re less optimistic a deal will actually materialize.
It’s in Saudi Arabia’s self-interest to emphasize that fossil fuels and energy security remain crucial for decades even as Western leaders eye a transition to more planet-friendly energy sources.
Moreover, some Saudis are concerned that tapping their limited spare capacity could actually backfire, spooking investors, having little impact on prices and encouraging the U.S. to demand more of what they see as erratic swings in energy policy.
“There’s a little bit of political danger here for the administration,” said Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.
“I think the default public view seems to be that the trip is about addressing current oil and gas prices. And I think the reality is that any expectation by the U.S. public that the trip is going to result in a massive decrease in gas prices, is almost certainly going to lead to disappointment.”
Biden aides this week have downplayed expectations, saying the president’s success should be measured “over the weeks and months to come” rather than at the conclusion of the visit.
“He intends to use every tool in his toolbox to try to create adequate global energy supplies and bring the price of gas down for American working families at the pump, and that will be measured over time,” Sullivan said.
The effort is further complicated by Biden’s political need not to appear too deferential to the crown prince, whose brutality he has repeatedly denounced. White House aides said Biden would raise human-rights issues with the man known as MBS, but it’s unlikely the president would scold the young prince publicly — in fact, much of the two-day program is expected to be out of earshot of the media.
Regional security push
Perhaps sensing the difficulties, Biden has sought to frame the trip instead as a push for regional security.
That includes a possible deal to open Saudi airspace to all flights into and out of Tel Aviv, as well as an accommodation for Muslim pilgrims who want to fly directly from Israel to Saudi Arabia.
Currently, Dubai’s Emirates Airline, Bahrain’s Gulf Air and Israeli airlines are permitted to use Saudi airspace for Dubai-Tel Aviv and Manama-Tel Aviv routes, but Israel is restricted from using Saudi airspace for any other commercial flights.
The build-up to the trip has included discussions about formally resuming Saudi-Israel peace talks, including the possibility of formalizing some sort of road map for reopening the diplomatic discussions, according to multiple people with knowledge of the effort.
Israeli officials who briefed reporters ahead of the trip declined to preview any specific steps toward normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, pointing to the fragility and fluidity of the situation, but said gradual progress is being made. They pointed to Biden’s travel directly between the countries as evidence of the evolving dynamics.
