MMA Junkie Radio co-host and MMA Junkie contributor Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator London.
Bellator London takes place Saturday at The SSE Arena in London. The Bellator Europe 3 main card streams on MMA Junkie. The Bellator 223 main card airs on Paramount and streams on DAZN via tape delay following live prelims on MMA Junkie.
Gegard Mousasi (45-6-2 MMA, 3-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: TKO win over Rory MacDonald (Sept. 29, 2018)
- Camp: Team Jurojin (The Netherlands)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator middleweight champion
+ Former Strikeforce and DREAM titelholder
+ Amateur boxing champion
+ Judo black belt
+ 27 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 31 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Manages distance well
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Excellent jab
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Excellent top pressure and transitions
^ Good strike and submission acumen
+ Crafty guard retentions and sweeps
Rafael Lovato Jr. (9-0 MMA, 5-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 35 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 77″
- Last fight: Submission win over John Salter(Sept. 21, 2018)
- Camp: Lovato’s School of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (Oklahoma City)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ LFC middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (4th degree)
+ Multiple IBJJF world championships
+ Gi and No-Gi grappling accolades
+ 2 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Punctuates combos with hard kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Serviceable wrestling ability
+ Superb transitional grappler
^ Dangerous from top or bottom
Point of interest: Jabs versus counters
The main event for Bellator London features a middleweight title fight that offers an interesting clash on the feet.
Hailing from the striking-rich country of the Netherlands, Gegard Mousasi has legitimate experience in both kickboxing and boxing. Displaying more finesse than flash, the 33-year-old has primarily scored his stoppages through accurate placements and technical superiority. And don’t let his unenthusiastic demeanor fool you: The Dutchman is secretly searching for defensive openings to exploit as he reads his opposition carefully.
If Mousasi can find a home for his jab early, then he will likely dictate the terms of the striking stanzas, which may, in turn, help mitigate takedown opportunities. However, should Mousasi fail to get a grasp on exchanges, then he’ll need to mind the deceptive counters that could come his way.
Although his opponent Rafael Lovato Jr. is well known for his world-class grappling game, the 35-year-old American has actually been boxing and striking since childhood. And since committing himself to the MMA stage, we have seen Lovato Jr. take things to the next level by making the trek down to Curitiba, Brazil to train at Evolucao Thai.
A gym that is known for its hard sparring sessions, head coach Andre Dida offers a unique style of muay Thai that incorporates aggressive feints and counters that translates well for his stable of MMA fighters (which include the likes of UFC staple Francisco Trinaldo and former Bellator middleweight champion Rafael Carvalho).
By throwing himself in said proverbial fires, Lovato Jr. has shown upgrades to his striking in recent years, as he does a much better job at punctuating his combinations with hard Thai kicks. Lovato Jr. also operates with little inhibition given that he is not worried about giving away takedowns from a stylistic standpoint.
That said, Lovato Jr. can’t get too comfortable or careless on the feet with the champion for long considering that his chances for success are ultimately higher on the floor.
Next point of interest: Submission quicksand
Point of interest: Submission quicksand
Considering the on-paper strengths of the challenger, I will be curious to see how Lovato Jr. chooses to approach grappling engagements.
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is not beyond catching a kick or hitting a well-timed level change in the open, but tends to secure most of his takedown offense from the clinch. There, the 6-foot, 3-inch frame of Lovato Jr. comes to life, as a lifetime spent both surfing and grappling seem to give the American a deceptively strong base to work with in regards to capitalizing on opportunities (similarly to one Luke Rockhold).
That said, getting Mousasi off of his feet is not only a task that has gotten increasingly difficult in time, but accomplishing it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re getting out of the woods either.
Even if Lovato Jr. surpasses Mousasi’s defensive fundamentals of hip positioning and grip awareness, the Dutch fighter is particularly crafty from his back with butterflies hooks, mainly looking for high-percentage guard retentions with the intentions of sweeping or scrambling to topside. Nevertheless, no matter how impressive Mousasi’s grappling chops are overall, I’m not sure he will be that willing to engage in Lovato Jr.’s wheelhouse – even if he is the one who ends up on top.
Mousasi’ game from topside is great for MMA, especially when he senses the kill and proceeds to slice and dice his way to a stoppage. The potential problem, however, is that Lovato Jr.’s guard game is on another level and his leg dexterity appears to be well-intact – submitting Gerald Harris, a veteran fighter who had never been submitted before, from his back.
Not all Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts are created equal, something that is evident when watching Lovato Jr. transition seamlessly through positions. If the American is allowed the grips needed to get his game going, then Mousasi fans may find themselves holding their breath.
Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public seem to be confidently favoring the champion, listing Mousasi -550 and Lovato Jr. +400 as of this writing.
Given their resume differential within the realm of MMA, I cannot say that a spread this wide surprises me. That said, I do warn anyone who is unfairly discounting the chances of the title challenger in this spot.
Lovato Jr.’s learning curb in the cage is a deceptive one given his sample sizes of experiences. As just the second American to become a world champion in jiu-jitsu at the black belt levels in Brazil, Lovato Jr. has already proven that he can accomplish huge feats if he sets his focus to it.
Should Lovato Jr. show some new folds to his game and find success early, I can’t say that he would be the first to shock the sitting champion. After all, it’s not like Mousasi has been beyond getting buzzed or having a bad night throughout his career, which is why I’m leaving room to be surprised here.
It’s hard to pick against the skills of Mousasi to not control the terms of this fight, but I’m also not entirely convinced he’ll be able to get a guy like Lovato Jr. out of there either. The pick is Mousasi to use his jab and counter-grappling abilities en route to a conservative, but competitive, defense of his title.
Prediction: Mousasi by decision
For more on Bellator London, check out the MMA Rumors section of the site.
