The hype surrounding the Cleveland Browns is at an all-time high with the addition of elite talent up and down the roster. It’s easy to get caught up in all the expectations and excitement.
Listening to first-year coach Freddie Kitchens is highly recommended for a dose of reality. He has remained steadfast in communicating the message that they have achieved nothing yet. This team has yet to play a game, and before they can look towards the playoffs and what comes after, they first have to navigate the always challenging AFC North.
In order to get an inside look into the teams the Browns will have to supplant in order to take the next step, I reached out to several talented individuals within the USA Today SMG NFL wire family. It is certainly prudent to keep an eye on your rivals, so here is an inside look courtesy of the men who report on them every day.
Baltimore Ravens
Questions answered by: Matthew Stevens
Managing editor/writer at USA Today Sports Media Group’s Ravens Wire
What/who was the biggest surprise during OTAs/minicamp?
Safety DeShon Elliott flashed a bit as a rookie before a fractured arm ended his season before it ever began. But I don’t think anyone expected Elliott to shine quite as much and often as he did in OTAs and minicamp. He had multiple interceptions, including a diving catch on the sideline. He’s playing fast and with confidence, and the team will have to find ways to put him on the field this season if he keeps it up.
On the flip side, defensive tackle Michael Pierce was a bit of a disappointment. He came in clearly heavier than his listed 340 pounds after skipping OTAs. On the first day of minicamp, he was removed from practice for poor conditioning. I contend Pierce is one of the most underrated defensive tackles in the league, but that’s a rough start for a guy in a contract year.
I think there are a few areas of concern right now. The offense has a new scheme, and quarterback Lamar Jackson has still been inconsistent during OTAs and minicamp. There are questions as to just how well Baltimore will function defensively without linebacker C.J. Mosley. But the biggest question for me is the production at outside linebacker.
The Ravens lost Terrell Suggs and Za’Darius Smith in free agency, leaving them with Matthew Judon (seven sacks in 2018) as the most productive pass rusher on the roster. While Baltimore did what they could late in free agency to bolster the unit with Shane Ray and Pernell McPhee, it’s still a thin group at their best. If Judon doesn’t step up in a big way this season and we don’t get at least one other player making strides, the Ravens could have one of the weaker pass rushes in the league.
I don’t think you’ll see a whole lot of changes, really. While there’s a new scheme in place, they’ll likely still rely on the same things we saw last season. This is still a run-based offense led by an athletic and dynamic quarterback. If you’re thinking we’ll see 40-plus passing attempts per game, I’d wonder why they brought back Joe Flacco and Marty Mornhinweg.
However, I’m hoping we see Jackson become a better passer this year and, with a bevy of new weapons around him, more shots down the field. Last season, it became too easy to predict what Baltimore was going to do on offense as they primarily stuck to rushing the ball and short throws to minimize the potential for big errors. I think with a new scheme, another year under Jackson’s belt and hopefully better wide receivers, we’ll see a slightly more balanced offense capable of attacking the different levels of the defense. If they can make defenses wonder where the ball is going to go, they’ll be improved over last year.
You’re going to see pretty much the same thing. This is the second season under defensive coordinator Don Martindale, but I don’t predict any major scheme changes. This defense will still be aggressive and might actually have to be more creative with where they send rushers to get pressure.
The biggest differences will be in the secondary, where I contend the Ravens have the deepest pass defense in the NFL, bar none. The change from safety Eric Weddle to Earl Thomas should be a huge improvement in turnovers. While Weddle relied on his football intelligence and experience, he was really beginning to show his age athletically. Thomas, on the other hand, has more range to him, allowing him to be more of a traditional ballhawk while still being able to come up and lay a devastating hit on a ball carrier.
I think we see Baltimore’s defense become even harder to throw on than in previous years, but the run defense could falter some as young players earn their stripes.
The defense will always be in the top half of the league, simply because of the talent they have there. So I’m not terribly worried about how that side of the ball letting too many games get out of control. Where things will be critical is on offense. We saw how dominant the Ravens can be when things are going their way offensively, but multiple turnovers or stalled drives absolutely put this team behind the 8-ball early. As we saw in the wild-card game against the Los Angeles Chargers, the offense has to become more efficient, productive and consistent, or it’s going to be a lot of nail-biters in the fourth quarter.
Record/predictions?
It wouldn’t shock me to see the Ravens falter a bit from last year as they retool a bit. With how they look right now, I think 9-7 or 10-6 is achievable, but an 8-8 finish isn’t out of the question either if they see a few big injuries or struggle offensively. Anything below that would be a pretty big shock to me.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Questions answered by: Neal Coolong
Senior editor of NFL sites with USA Today Sports Media Group; founder of the NFL Wire Network and Steelers Wire
What/Who was the biggest surprise during OTAs/minicamp?
The lack of drama – however you’d like to define that – was probably the biggest surprise. I’m not sure I’d say that was a surprise, though. Maybe more of a welcome change. Contract situations come and go, but players like Antonio Brown – as angry as he seemed this offseason – will be missed. But the lack of overhanging atmosphere, the clear establishment of leadership and even the thinning of the expectations of the division of labor will be a welcome change for this team this season.
What appears to be the biggest area of concern for the Steelers?
Replacing 160 All-Pro targets in the passing game. Without question, argument or doubt. I even said it earlier, the more peaceful and functional locker room will be beneficial, but Steelers fans are going to see quickly how good Brown is and how much they utilized him over the last six seasons. Brown has produced at an elite level with and without another highly talented option in the passing game. JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn’t. That doesn’t take anything away from the budding star JuJu, it’s just simply pointing out Brown carried a ton of water for this offense. I feel it’s simply unreasonable to think Smith-Schuster, in his third year, cracks off a 120-grab, 1,500-yard, 15-touchdown kind of season we’ve come to expect from the Steelers’ top receiver over the past six years.
It’s hard to envision, here in June, who the second most-targeted Steelers receiver will be. James Washington? Rookie Diontae Johnson? I’d probably bet on James Conner, the third-year running back who announced his arrival in the NFL last season. If he’s going to handle more than the 5.5 targets a game he had last season, and he’s going to stay healthy (he’s ended his first two NFL seasons hurt, although he did play in a must-win Week 17 game last season), he’s also going to have to handle a massive boost in leadership responsibilities. That’s a lot for a player, especially one that stands ahead of the lack of a third option who has both experience and demonstrated talent.
What changes can we expect to see on the offensive side of the ball from the Steelers?
This is really the wild card here, isn’t it? We really have nothing to go on in terms of strategy or precedent. Randy Fichtner, a second-year offensive coordinator, has to replace, for the second consecutive season, an All-Pro who’s easily in the conversation of the most talented players at his position. The first time, Fichtner and Co. responded well, finishing sixth in the league with 26.8 points per game – better than a full point a game better than 2017. But Le’Veon Bell’s slow-starting 2017 season didn’t finish at the level Bell’s career had suggested he’s capable of to that point. (Fitchner) had Brown at a high level in both seasons.
We keep coming back to that theme, and I hate to be redundant, but the Steelers haven’t played two consecutive meaningful games without Brown in a while. How they respond to that challenge, tactically as well as physically, will determine how well this team does in 2019. It seems reasonable to suggest Conner – who averaged 16.5 carries a game in 2018 – will be asked to carry more of the load, but with Jaylen Samuels and rookie Benny Snell likely backing him up, the challenge of coaching up two young players to back up a slightly older player is enormous. That falls on Fichtner and first-year running backs coach Eddie Faulkner.
What changes can we expect to see on the defensive side of the ball from the Steelers?
Fans tend to mark their respective territories in pretty obvious colors. It likely won’t be considered a change of any kind of many Steelers fans when they see third-year outside linebacker T.J. Watt make the leap into the elite category of NFL defensive players, but it should be. Watt was a solid player through the first 27 games of his NFL career, with particular noted success against Cleveland. Facing passing-averse quarterbacks like DeShone Kizer and Tyrod Taylor, Watt notched seven of his 20 career sacks in his four games against the Browns. Let’s be honest, the Browns didn’t exactly shine in terms of pass protection the last two seasons. But watching Watt’s performance on a per-snap basis over the team’s final four games should only leave one thinking he’s poised to make a massive impact for a Steelers defense that’s quietly put together two fairly decent seasons (with the occasional meltdown that seems to mark most teams the last eight years or so).
They haven’t had an issue sacking the quarterback, having led the NFL in sacks the last two years (56 in 2017 and tied with Kansas City with 52 last year), and finishing top-10 the last four years. Takeaways have been sorely lacking, though. Since 2016, they’ve averaged 12.3 picks per season, with a high of 16 in 2017 and a low of eight, that came last year. Significant investments in the secondary since that time – first round picks invested in CB Artie Burns and S Terrell Edmunds, second-round pick invested in S Sean Davis, free agent signing of CB Joe Haden – haven’t borne the kind of fruit one might expect. The Steelers have been competitive in that time, having won two of three division titles and advancing to the AFC championship game after the 2016 season, but clearly the issue preventing this team from moving from also-ran status to legit contender has been the inconsistency in their secondary.
Watt’s expected high-end breakout season, combined with the continued strength of a deep and talented defensive line, will likely highlight the year for the team defensively. If Pittsburgh is able to get its secondary playing well enough consistently, we’re likely to see a shift from the high-flying offensive reputation this team has had since 2014, and back into a defensive-led group.
What aspect of the game will be the most critical to the Steelers’ success?
Not even Mike Tomlin and his increasingly bland responses to questions regarding strategy can avoid the importance of the reinvention of the team’s defensive scheme this season. Now, they’re going to have to reinvent themselves defensively AND offensively. Many fans aren’t confident he’s either willing or able to make those changes.
His desire to be both willing and able to change will carry most of this season. It’s laughable to think the defense – coverage in particular – has been good enough to suggest they’re simply at the highest point they can reasonably get. Their coverage concepts are simplified nearly to a Super Tecmo Bowl level, and the decision to bring in a second defensive backs coach (Teryl Austin, fresh off a woeful run at the end of his time in Cincinnati) speaks to the need to get the horde of younger players they’ve brought in recently up to speed with a more intricate and less predictable scheme.
As I’ve mentioned, they’re in need of a completely new approach offensively, considering they’re down the most prolific receiver of the decade. They scored nearly 27 points a game last year, which is certainly nothing to cry about, but the one game played without Brown, they put up 17 against a Bengals team that didn’t exactly have much to play for at that point. They’ve also got a running back who hasn’t come close to finishing an entire season without injury, and two young players with little and no experience backing him up. Suggesting they have anything on which they can faithfully rely (Sean Sarrett replaces OL coach extraordinaire Mike Munchak along with Faulkner overseeing the running backs) is a fool’s errand. This year will go a long way determining Tomlin’s future in Pittsburgh.
Record/predictions?
8-8. Overall, I think the team made the moves it needed to make this offseason. If being forced to play in Pittsburgh in 2019 would have made Brown any angrier than he was at the end of 2018, I can’t imagine what he would have done. The trade up to No. 10 overall to land LB Devin Bush was the right move. Adding to the depth at receiver in Brown’s absence was the right move. Picking up OLB Bud Dupree’s fifth-year option was … well, maybe not the right move, but all things considered, they did what could have been reasonably expected this offseason.
That doesn’t mean it will come together neatly, though. It’ll take a year of internal development and individual player seasoning to get the team moving forward again. The Steelers struggled at the end of 2017 and all of 2018 to replace Ryan Shazier, and I can’t imagine replacing Brown will be any easier.
Cincinnati Bengals
Questions answered by: Chris Roling
Managing editor/writer at USA Today SMG’s Bengals Wire
What/Who was the biggest surprise during OTAs/minicamp?
Probably B.W. Webb. He’s a journeyman who played with Lou Anarumo with the New York Giants and came over as seemingly nothing more than insurance if the front office couldn’t get Darqueze Dennard back. Fast forward to camp and he’s helping Anarumo — the defensive coordinator — install his scheme and making big plays, which makes Dennard expendable when he goes to market again in a year.
What appears to be the biggest area of concern for the Bengals?
The offensive line is still a problem. They drafted Jonah Williams in the first round and put him at left tackle, but he’s already got some sort of mystery injury. He displaced Cordy Glenn, who will now have to play guard for the first time since college. That displaces quality starter Clint Boling, who doesn’t have a set role. Billy Price was erratic at center last year, John Miller at right guard is a new arrival and the staff swears it can turn Bobby Hart’s career around. So it’s a bit of a work in progress.
What changes can we expect to see on the offensive side of the ball from the Bengals?
Expect less in the form of complexity. Zac Taylor has made it pretty clear he wants to go the Sean McVay route and run a ton of different things out of basic, limited formations. This, on paper, should mean an even bigger focus on the running game with Joe Mixon, as well as a bigger number of creative chances for a weapon like John Ross.
What changes can we expect to see on the defensive side of the ball from the Bengals?
A return to basics. Teryl Austin got fired in the middle of last season for overloading players, changing too much on a weekly basis and playing players outside their comfort zones. Guys like William Jackson, for example, were asked to play against their strengths and looked worse for it. Once Marvin Lewis took over after a 51-14 loss to New Orleans, things started improving.
What aspect of the game will be the most critical to the Bengals’ success?
The offensive line. Andy Dalton has crumbled in the past behind quality lines, so a bad one can lead to disaster. If the timing of Taylor’s offense is off and Dalton is rattled, mistakes will naturally follow. Last year, that culminated in a botched snap by Price, which Dalton suffered a season-ending injury trying to recover. There isn’t a lot of wiggle room for mistakes up front in a Myles Garrett-led AFC North.
Record/predictions?
Let’s target 7-9 range. The Bengals are talented in some fun areas like corner and wideout, but it doesn’t mean the execution will be there. And the schedule is a monster — they start in Seattle, and three of their first four are on the road. They play in London. They finish with two games against Cleveland over their last four, and during that stretch also have to play New England. A 4-4 mark leaving London and going into a Week 9 bye would be incredible at this point.
