The SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) IPO is the most talked-about market event in years. But Chris Graebe, an analyst at Weiss Ratings, says the investors who will really profit already got in—and it wasn't recently.
Graebe has spent the last several years guiding everyday investors into private companies before they ever reach a public exchange. In a market flooded with IPO enthusiasm, his message is equal parts exciting and sobering: the biggest returns in any IPO story almost always go to those who wrote checks long before the opening bell.
The SpaceX Reality Check
For retail investors dreaming of a SpaceX windfall, Graebe's view is clear-eyed. The investors positioned to make the most on that deal got in years ago, at valuations far below today's. Institutional money, and a handful of early creditors, are the ones riding it to the IPO. Any online offer claiming to give retail investors access to SpaceX right now—tokenized coins, fractional insider shares—warrants serious caution. Do your own diligence before acting on anything you find on the internet.
That doesn't mean the space economy is off-limits. It means the opportunity may be elsewhere.
The Legislation Most Investors Don't Know About
Here's what most people miss. Under the JOBS Act of 2016, everyday investors, accredited or not, gained the ability to invest in private companies through SEC-qualified Regulation A offerings. Think of it as an Amazon-style marketplace for early-stage companies raising capital, with roughly 55 active portals currently listing somewhere between 490 and 500 offerings. Minimum investments can range from $100 to $500, depending on the deal.
Graebe says most investors still don't know this is possible. Most founders don't even know they can raise capital from their own customers this way. That gap, he argues, is exactly where the opportunity lives.
Starfighters Space: The Air-Launch Play
Starfighters Space, Inc. (NYSE American: FJET) is trying to solve one of the most expensive bottlenecks in the satellite economy: the launch queue. The company operates a fleet of modified F-104 supersonic aircraft out of NASA's Kennedy Space Center and is developing an air-launch system designed to carry small satellites to 45,000 feet before releasing a rocket into low orbit. The pitch is speed and cost—potentially a two-week turnaround versus the months-long wait currently typical of traditional launches.
Graebe says he invested in the company's Regulation A round at around $3.59 per share, and members who participated saw the stock open at $10 on its December 2025 NYSE American debut before climbing to $31.50 by the third trading day. He claims that represented roughly a 7x return for those who entered at the private round price. Notably, there was no lockup period—investors had access to their shares from day one.
Whether FJET is a buy at current prices is a more complex question. The company is pre-revenue and still developing its launch programs, and space stocks broadly are running hot. Shares have pulled back from the $31.50 third-day peak and were trading around $8 heading into June—still well above Graebe's private round entry. He says he's holding a position for the long haul, citing NASA and Space Force demand for lower-cost launch access and what he describes as a capable leadership team.
BeatBox Beverages: The Cuban-Backed Party Punch
The second win was further from the space race. BeatBox Beverages is a ready-to-drink party punch brand started by three founders out of Austin, Texas, that landed a $1 million investment from Mark Cuban on Shark Tank in 2014. Graebe says he found the company in 2020 when it was generating around $7 million in revenue, saw something in the founders' resilience, and got in.
In February 2026, Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (NYSE: BUD) completed its acquisition of an 85% stake in BeatBox for up to $490 million, with a path to full ownership after five years. Graebe claims early private investors saw a roughly 5x to 6x return on that exit—over a six-year hold. BeatBox no longer trades independently; it now operates within AB InBev's Beyond Beer portfolio.
The story is instructive beyond the numbers. Graebe credits founder assessment as the single most important factor in early-stage investing. Grit, humility, and the willingness to build the right team around a core idea are the signals he looks for. Arrogance is the one that sends him running.
Eagle Nuclear Energy: The Uranium Deposit Everyone Forgot
The third pick is a uranium story that went quiet. Eagle Nuclear Energy Corp. (Nasdaq: NUCL) holds rights to the Aurora Uranium Project—a large near-surface deposit on the Oregon-Nevada border with a measured and indicated resource of approximately 32.75 million pounds of uranium, plus additional potential from the adjacent Cordex deposit. The company completed a SPAC merger and began trading on the Nasdaq in February 2026.
Graebe says he invested in the early private round at around $3.50 per share, visited the site in person, and timed his entry around a March 2025 executive order pushing for more aggressive domestic uranium mining. He claims the stock ran to around $14 at its peak, roughly five weeks after listing, and was trading in the high single digits heading into June.
The nuclear narrative has cooled since 2025's peak enthusiasm. Graebe says that's actually part of the appeal—data center energy demand hasn't gone away, and small modular reactors are increasingly part of the longer-term solution. He's holding the stock and remains bullish on the story, citing the deposit's domestic strategic value as grid demand continues rising.
Conexeu Sciences: The Biotech Wildcard
The fourth pick is the highest-risk of the group. Conexeu Sciences Inc. (Nasdaq: CNXU) is a preclinical biotech developing a collagen-based extracellular matrix scaffold platform targeting wound care, dental regeneration, aesthetics, and potentially 3D-printed tissue reconstruction, including post-mastectomy breast restoration. The company completed a direct listing on Nasdaq on May 21, 2026.
Graebe says he invested in the private round at around $2 per share, approximately 10 months before listing. Since its IPO, the price has been volatile, swinging as high as $17 per share. From his $2 private round entry, that still represents a roughly 8x gain.
The caveat here is real: preclinical biotech is among the riskiest categories in early-stage investing. FDA trial outcomes, funding availability, and execution risk all matter enormously. Graebe says he's drawn to biotechs that run lean—more like tech startups than traditional drug developers—because it extends runway and signals disciplined management. His long-term read on CNXU is an eventual acquisition by a major pharma player once clinical milestones are cleared, though nothing in the company's current stage makes that outcome certain.
The IPO Cycle Warning
Graebe closed with a historical frame worth keeping. The year 1999 saw a record number of IPOs, followed almost immediately by the dot-com collapse. The year 2021 produced more than 1,000 IPOs—and was followed by a brutal 2022 correction. IPO volumes are climbing again. He thinks the current cycle runs another year and a half to two years before it resets.
His read: when the hype peaks and IPO activity slows, that's typically when the best private-stage opportunities appear. The investors who put money into Facebook, Airbnb, and Instagram during the 2008–2009 downturn weren't making headlines—they were building the foundation for the next wave. The AI valuation environment right now, he says, rhymes closely with dot-com: enormous collective valuations chasing revenue that hasn't fully materialized yet.
The SpaceX IPO will be wild. But if history is any guide, the people with popcorn are the ones who already got paid.
The article "Before the IPO: 4 Companies That Rewarded Investors Who Got In Early" first appeared on MarketBeat.
