Are the Bears the Rams … or the Jaguars?
After a rejuvenating season in which they made a quantum leap from 5-11 in 2017 to 12-4 and the NFC North title last season, the Bears are one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL heading into 2019. Behind Matt Nagy, Vic Fangio, Mitch Trubisky and Khalil Mack, they followed the Rams template almost too closely last year — making the jump from also-ran to legitimate Super Bowl contender, but losing a winnable home playoff game as a favorite against the Eagles, just as the Rams lost at home to the Falcons in their playoff opener following their breakout season of 2017.
That disappointment helped fuel a skepticism about just how real the Bears’ renaissance might be. Instead of the Rams, the Bears might be the Jaguars, who slumped to 5-11 last season after leaping from 3-13 to 10-6 and an AFC championship game berth in 2017.
No doubt, the Bears will face many of the challenges that doomed the Jaguars last season. They will play a tougher schedule as a defending division champion. Their developing, young quarterback will have to take a step forward instead of a step backward. Their defense will be challenged to repeat a 36-takeaway, six-touchdown season that made them elite. And they won’t be sneaking up on anybody this year.
Additionally, the Bears will be hard-pressed to be as healthy this season as they were last year. After losing the architect of their fabulous defense, coordinator Vic Fangio, it remains to be seen just how seamless the transition will be under the respected Chuck Pagano. The Bears are in arguably the toughest division in football — with the Vikings and Packers expecting to return to playoff caliber and the Lions a candidate for big improvement in Matt Patricia’s second season.
They have to meet the challenge of high expectations in the franchise’s 100th season — from their rabid fandom to the media to the daunting, hovering shadow of the ’85 Bears — and under a spotlight that is far brighter and far hotter in Chicago than in Jacksonville. And the Bears still don’t have a kicker.
While those challenges are real, objectively the Bears’ arrow is more likely headed toward the Rams side of that spectrum than the Jaguars. Their defense might not get 36 takeaways, but still figures to be potent with Mack and second-year linebacker Roquan Smith having a full offseason/preseason and with the front seven intact — with every player still in his 20s (Akiem Hicks turns 30 on Nov. 16).
Trubisky and the offense are more likely to take at least a small step forward than a Jaguars-sized step backwards (from ninth in points in 2017 to 31st last year) under Matt Nagy. The Bears’ biggest loss figures to be an upgrade — rookie David Montgomery and Mike Davis over ill-fitting Jordan Howard.
The Bears at least enter the 2019 season with a new-found respect. They are fifth to seventh in most reputable NFL power rankings — a year ago they were 24th to 28th. Their odds of winning the Super Bowl are up from 100-1 to 14-1 — seventh best on the board. Their win “total” in Vegas is up from 6 1/2 to 9/9 1/2.
So will the Bears be the Rams or the Jaguars? They could be something inbetween — a regression to a disappointing 9-7 without a playoff berth; or 10-6 with a divisional-round playoff loss, but overall another step in the right direction.
With that in mind, here is our annual test of Bears fans’ optimism/pessimism for the upcoming season. Rate these categories, with 10 points for an optimistic vote, minus-10 for a pessimistic vote and zero for a neutral vote.
THE CATEGORIES:
MITCH TRUBISKY
Optimist: Ready for takeoff in his second year in Matt Nagy’s offense and with a full year of familiarity with his key receivers. At 25, Trubisky will grow as a quarterback, playmaker and leader in a maturing offense, keep defenses off balance with his running ability and mature into an efficient, if not prolific, elite quarterback in the NFL.
Pessimist: Too dependent on the offense to carry him instead of the other way around, Trubisky will have his moments but ultimately hit a low ceiling as defenses cut off the escape routes that make him a dual threat and force him to make throws he just can’t make. Misses games because of injury. Exposed as a “reps guy” without the instincts to take a team over the top and ends up in the middle of the pack statistically.
MATT NAGY’S OFFENSE
Optimist: With all the pieces in place and Trubisky in charge, the Bears’ offense becomes a Chiefs-like well-oiled machine with the ultimate run/pass ability that keeps defenses on their heels and with a diversity that makes anybody a big-play threat. The offense overtakes the defense as the Bears’ calling card.
Pessimist: Too dependent on all 11 players being in sync and a not-ready-for-prime-time quarterback making big plays, the Bears’ offense stalls as the running game fails to develop, the offensive line regresses and defenses exploit weaknesses that throw off the timing and throw Nagy off his game.
CHUCK PAGANO’S DEFENSE
Optimist: Pagano’s aggressiveness unleashes a torrent of pass rushing prowess — Mack, Smith, Leonard Floyd, Eddie Jackson, Isaiah Irving, Duke Shelley, et al. — that takes the Fangio defense up a notch and creates havoc that turns everybody a playmaker.
Pessimist: The loss of their spiritual Yoda-like leader in Fangio proves problematic as the defense loses its mojo, takeaways dry up, injuries mount, Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan age rapidly and the Bears’ defense is throwN out of whack in a chain reaction of regression.
KHALIL MACK
Optimist: In his prime at 28, Mack parlays a full offseason/training camp/preseason with the Bears into his best season yet — an attacking machine at peak efficiency, creating a disruption on virtually every snap that wreaks havoc and creates opportunities for teammates.
Pessimist: In his prime at 28, Mack parlays a full offseason/training camp/preseason with the Bears into his best season yet — an attacking machine at peak efficiency, creating a disruption on virtually every snap that wreaks havoc and creates opportunities for teammates.
KYLE LONG
Optimist: Inspired by the chance to win a Super Bowl ring his father and brother have and motivated to prove he’s as good and as durable at 30 as he ever was, Long takes advantage of the low mileage of recent years to show off his athleticism, play all 16 games and is re-born as an elite, Pro Bowl lineman.
Pessimist: Turns out he’s an old 30 — starts the season healthy and in good spirits, but breaks down little by little, gets overwhelmed by opponents he used to dominate and finds himself at a career crossroads entering 2020.
ROQUAN SMITH
Optimist: In a comfort zone after a strong rookie season, Smith takes advantage of a full training camp/preseason and becomes the instinctive, sideline-to-sideline, front-to-back impact player the Bears envisioned. A tackling machine who emerges as a rising star and leader.
Pessimist: Overshadowed by more potent playmakers and veteran leaders, Smith stays in his shell and continues a steady but unspectacular progression as he adjusts to the nuances of Pagano’s defense.
DAVID MONTGOMERY
Optimist: Lives up to the billing of being a perfect fit for Nagy’s offense, playing a Kareem Hunt role as a proficient rusher and effective receiver. Production varies game-to-game, but impact is consistent — always making teammates more effective.
Pessimist: Though he’s a good fit for Nagy’s offense and flashes potential, he’s still a rookie. Can’t beat out Mike Davis, doesn’t get into the rhythm of the offense and can’t match Jordan Howard’s numbers. Wait’ll next year.
CLINTON-DIX/SKRINE
Optimist: With a strong front seven giving him room to take chances, Clinton-Dix is a playmaking upgrade over Adrian Amos. Also benefitting from the best supporting cast he’s ever played with, Skrine is as effective as Bryce Callahan, and more available.
Pessimist: Clinton-Dix’s training camp absence (knee) extends into the preseason, he gets a late start, his tackling shortcomings are exposed and he never clicks with Eddie Jackson. Skrine isn’t nearly as productive when he plays for Nagy as he did against him and the Bears miss Callahan more than they thought they would.
THE KICKER
Optimist: Ryan Pace’s plan works like a charm, as the pressure-filled process instills a mental toughness in the winner that pays off big. Eddy Piñeiro makes every big kick, leads the NFL in scoring and Chicago finally exhales.
Pessimist: You don’t want to know. Pace’s grand plan backfires as every candidate is consumed by the suffocating effect of the process and ultimately falters. The Bears desperately sign a veteran — Matt Bryant? Cairo Santos? — but still end up pining for Robbie Gould. Ugh.
THE SCHEDULE
Optimist: It turns out the Bears are ready for prime time literally and figuratively. With a swagger on defense and offense, they respond to the moment in big games and go 14-2 — losing only to the Saints and Eagles — to get the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Pessimist: Too many prime-time/overseas games not only increases the degree-of-difficulty, but keeps the Bears out of a week-to-week rhythm. They get everybody’s best game, get off to a 1-3 start, never catch fire and finish 7-9 and out of the playoffs.
Scoring
90-100: Nagy is a football god.
70-80: Buying in to the hype.
30-60: Seeing is believing.
20 to minus-20: Bears fan since the 90s.
Minus-50 to minus-70: Bears fan since the late 60s.
Minus-80 to minus-100: Packers fan.
