The Ballon d'Or power rankings are shaping up, with new favourites, as teams drop out of competitions and favourites establish themselves in others.
Time was that the Ballon d'Or was a lovely little end-of-year footnote, but has now ballooned (or should that be balloned? No?) to a degree of such apparent importance to some players that it is more important than the boring old trophies that get handed out for, you know, winning football matches and stuff.
In any case, now that we're into the final third of the 2024/25 season, excitement is building for who might land the 2025 Ballon d'Or - with a familiar face to Premier League viewers moving ahead of the pack.
Ballon d’Or 2025 power ranking: The bookies’ odds for the award
All odds from Bet365.
1. Raphinha (Evens)
Real Madrid infamously eschewed the entire Ballon d’Or ceremony last year on hearing news that Rodri had pipped Vini Jr to the main prize.
What might they do if, perish the thought, a Barcelona star bags it this time? But it’s hard to argue against Raphinha being good value for it.
50 goal involvements in 47 games across La Liga, Champions League, Copa del Rey and Supercopa is entering a conversation Raphinha has not seemed destined for for most of his career – but if Barca lift Old Big Ears this season, he’ll be a big reason behind it.
Leeds United knew they had a player on their hands just a few short years ago, but they would have been laughed out of the room for suggesting he’d soon be surging away from Kylian Mbappe in this list.
It’s been 18 years since a Brazilian lifted the ultimate individual prize – it’s doubtful this is the way Vini Jr wants that particular drought ended.
FourFourTwo's verdict: If Barcelona win the Champions League and there's no superstar performance in the final, expect the award to go to Raphinha – purely for the output he's managed this season.
2. Mohamed Salah (5/1)
With his contract nearing its end and him on the wrong side of 30, rival fans eagerly anticipated the decline of Mohamed Salah's career.
However, they will have to wait longer. A remarkable 45 goal involvements in 32 Premier League games have the Egyptian star close to achieving the division's best-ever season.
While Arne Slot has had a good first season at Liverpool, their title hopes would be significantly diminished without Salah's individual brilliance in the highly competitive Premier League.
It would take an unforeseen turn of events for his name not to be among the contenders.
FourFourTwo's verdict: Ahh, Mo – if all things were equal, you'd have the gong, as the best player in the world this season by a mile. But given the weight that winning the Champions League carries, it's hard to see the voters turn a blind eye to Liverpool's last-16 loss. File this one in future BDO robberies, in our eyes…
3. Ousmane Dembele (5/1)
The era of Ousmane Dembele as a £100m player seemed to be over. Despite showing his quality for Barcelona, he hadn't fully reached his potential.
His move to Paris Saint-Germain, following in the footsteps of Neymar and Lionel Messi, raised eyebrows for many. However, with PSG moving away from their ‘Galactico-lite’ approach, Dembele has flourished.
Surrounded by exciting young talent, the 27-year-old has become a senior figure, leading the attack with 32 goals and 11 assists in 42 games, using his experience to guide PSG's rising stars.
FourFourTwo's verdict: PSG pull off the Champions League and this award goes to Dembele, as the elder master of a young collective. It might just be worth putting your money on if you're a better…
4. Lamine Yamal (5/1)
Lamine Yamal is still only 17 years old.
Few players can handle the pressure and intensity of being a Barcelona star. Yamal isn't just coping; he's thriving, contributing an astonishing 35 goal involvements in 45 appearances across all competitions.
This is phenomenal, especially considering that Lionel Messi had only one goal in nine outings at the same stage of his career. No pressure, indeed.
FourFourTwo's verdict: Given that Euro 2024 won't count to the 2025 Ballon d'Or, this award will surely only go to Yamal if he delivers an unignorable performance in the Champions League final. Even then, it's no given – luckily, time's on his side to win one of these.
5. Robert Lewandowski (7/1)
The presence of three Barcelona players in the top five will undoubtedly anger Real Madrid fans, but each player's inclusion is justified.
At 36, many players would be playing in leagues like the MLS or the Saudi Pro League. However, Robert Lewandowski is still scoring prolifically at the highest level, with an impressive 11 goals in 12 Champions League games.
Seeing the Polish international lift the Ballon d'Or after being unfairly denied it due to the cancellation of the 2020 ceremony would be a deserving outcome. The question is… has his 2024/25 been worthy of the gong?
FourFourTwo's verdict: In 1970, John Wayne won the Best Actor Oscar for True Grit, despite it not being one of his better performances – with some suggesting he'd won it more as a “lifetime achievement” gong. Seeing similar for Lewandowski winning a Ballon d'Or wouldn't be a surprise if Barça win the UCL, would it?
The others...
Pedri (16/1): Has impressively rebuilt his career after early injuries but is likely behind other contenders in terms of impact.
Lautaro Martinez (20/1): Is developing a reputation for narrowly missing out on major awards. A move might be necessary if he wants to be a serious contender in these discussions.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (33/1): Represents a more instinctive and free-flowing style of football, which is often rewarded in competitions like this. Don't be surprised if his odds shorten if PSG wins the Champions League.
Declan Rice (40/1): Has been consistently excellent throughout the season. His odds could significantly improve if his two free-kicks against Real Madrid play a crucial role in Arsenal finally winning European silverware.
