Summary
And so it came to pass, eight days after the end of an eight-week-long election campaign, that Malcolm Turnbull was declared prime minister elect.
But while Turnbull and Bill Shorten have determined that they don’t need to reprint their business cards, and declared they can work together in a spirit of cooperation and mutual hatred of how long it takes the Australian Electoral Commission to count things, we’ve yet to learn the final makeup of the 45th parliament.
We’ll park our live coverage here for the day, with a few parting thoughts:
- The Coalition is still three seats shy of a majority, and one independent shy of making up the numbers. Only Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter have promised to guarantee supply – Andrew Wilkie just promised not to support a vote of no confidence.
- A number of lower house seats have not been formally declared and six, on the analysis of our numbers people Ben Raue and Nick Evershed, are still too close to call.
- We still don’t know what the Senate will look like, or whether a new Senate will be more willing to pass the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill than the last lot were.
- We don’t know the details of Turnbull’s renegotiated Coalition agreement with the National party, and if Barnaby Joyce has his way those details will not be released.
- The actual swearing in of the new government is dependent on the return of the governor general, who is currently celebrating the death of the French monarchy and unavailable for swearing-in duties. So we don’t know when that will happen, either.
There has never been a more exciting time, etc.
Updated
Labor candidate for Cowan, Anne Aly, is speaking on Sky News. She’s currently leading the count in Cowan against Liberal MP Luke Simpkins.
Aly said she was hopeful of maintaining that lead but expected the formal result would not be known for at least a week.
Is it bittersweet, Aly is asked, to face winning the seat when the Labor party has lost the election?
I think the Labor government – the Labor party, sorry – achieved a lot in this campaign ... we gained a lot of ground in this election campaign and I think that sends a clear message to the Coalition government on where they need to be focusing their priorities.
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My colleague, Paul Karp, has taken a look at the push for electronic voting.
He writes:
Shorten said that, without taking away from the professionalism of the Australian Electoral Commission, the voting system needed to be sped up: “We can’t afford to have our nation drift for eight days after an election.
“In the 21st century, we’re a leading democracy, we should be able to find out who won and who lost in a quicker time than we’ve seen.”
In his victory speech, Turnbull backed the call. “Yes this is something we must look at ... that’s been a passion or interest of mine for a long time,” he said.
Turnbull noted the New South Wales Electoral Commission had considered and been more open to electronic voting than the Australian Electoral Commission.
The AEC has noted numerous issues with electronic voting, including the lack of paper ballots to verify results, the risk of hacking, and perceived lack of transparency in the voting system.
Michael Danby’s comments on Greens voters growing out of voting Green have not gone down well with Greens voters.
@callapilla I started voting Green the older I got so there’s that.
— Jayson Palmer (@jasepalm) July 10, 2016
I will not vote for Labor while it maintains a cruel and illegal asylum seeker policy https://t.co/lzrfh07NRp
— Shane Bazzi (@shanebazzi) July 10, 2016
Well actually for me it has been the opposite *growth* #grewupandgrewaconscience 💁
— kelloveslife (@kelloveslife) July 10, 2016
🌱✌️ https://t.co/wg5o7kUE7d
What about all the older Labor voters who voted Greens for the first time, will they 'grow out' of it too? https://t.co/6L6XcqOb4Y
— Luke (@lucrious) July 10, 2016
What if the new Senate doesn’t pass the ABCC?
An interesting note from Malcolm Turnbull’s press conference about the Australian Building and Construction Commission bill. You know, that piece of legislation that was the trigger for the double-dissolution election and then barely mentioned throughout the eight-week campaign.
Asked a journalist at this afternoon’s press conference:
Can you get that through now, will you actually have a joint sitting of parliament to get that legislation through?
Replied Turnbull:
Well let me explain how it works. The bills that were the subject of the double dissolution under section 57 are re-presented to the House of Representatives which will vote on them.
I confidently expect they will be passed. They will then be presented to the Senate and if they’re passed there then they’re law. If they’re not passed there then a joint sitting can be held. Now we don’t know who is going to be in the Senate yet and indeed there are a number of seats in the House of Representatives that are yet to be finally determined although we have a higher level of confidence about almost all of them.
So as to what the numbers will be, we await the determinations of the AEC and of course many of these Senators – future Senators – will have open minds on this issue and will remain to be convinced on the merits of either side of the argument.
As another journalist at the press conference pointed out, Turnbull had no joy with this legislation in a Senate with eight crossbenchers. He will now have at least nine.
Updated
Osman Faruqi, writing on Junkee, has raised a rather good point.
He writes:
As a quick aside, it’s pretty funny the governor general, who is the official representative of the Queen, is celebrating Bastille Day. Bastille Day is a celebration of the start of the 1789 French revolution which resulted in the declaration of a French Republic and the execution of the king.
So basically Australia has a slight delay in officially appointing our prime minister, because our system of constitutional monarchy means the Queen’s representative has to swear them in, but the Queen’s rep is too busy celebrating the brutal deposition of the French monarchy back in the 1700s. There’s never been a more exciting time to be an Australian who thinks our monarchist system of government is a bit outdated and shit.
Never mind electronic voting to speed things up, maybe don’t send the only person authorised to swear in the new government overseas until they have actually sworn in said government.
Updated
Danby said he is confident he will be ranked second in the preference count for Melbourne Ports. If that happens, he said, most of the Greens preferences will flow to him, allowing him to pip Liberal candidate Owen Guest at the post.
Most of their [Greens] voters are really good people who have differences with us on asylum seekers and we’re fairly confident that their preferences will go to us.
Green voters, Danby said, were much younger than traditional Labor voters, but he seemed to suggest they would grow out of it.
I would hope as they get older and get married and realise some of the complexities of life they will turn back to being Labor voters.
Generally speaking, telling young people that they’ll see things differently when they’re older and have Real Grown Up Responsibilities is not a great way to reach the youth vote, but, as Danby also noted, young people are probably not watching Sky News.
Updated
Michael Danby, the Labor member for Melbourne Ports, who is still in a three-pronged race with the Liberal party and the Greens to retain the seat, followed Ryan on Sky.
He says Bill Shorten has done a fantastic job.
Bill Shorten has done a fantastic job. I think it’s a bit of a story of the tortoise and the hare.
I’m a little unclear about this analogy. Does he mean that Labor is the hare, who went too hard and burnt out, while the Coalition’s tortoise coasted to victory? Or is Labor the tortoise who will win next time?
Anyway. Well done, Bill.
Updated
Liberal senator for Victoria, Scott Ryan, has just been on Sky News talking about Labor’s Medicare campaign, which he said scratched an itch in the electorate, and the likely shape of the new parliament.
The expectation is the Coalition will win 76-seats, which is just enough to form a majority. So, that’s a pass mark. Is that enough to solidify Turnbull’s position?
Ryan says a win is a win.
The job of every government is to work with the parliament that the Australian people give us.
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A quick note on timing
While both sides have agreed that the Coalition is the victor, Malcolm Turnbull will not be able to send his new government to get sworn in until he renegotiates a deal with the National party, and until the governor general, Sir Peter Cosgrove, returns from France, where he is taking part in a Bastille Day celebration.
That could take some time. A party room meeting is scheduled for Monday week.
So maybe don’t retire that #auswaits tag just yet.
Turnbull reiterated today that his ministry would remain unchanged – excepting, one presumes, from replacing those like Wyatt Roy who lost their seat.
Updated
The “preference whisperer”, Glen Druery, has sketched out what he thinks the Senate will look like. He suggests that Pauline Hansen’s One Nation party could pick up Senate spots in Tasmania, New South Wales and Western Australia, as well as Hansen’s own Senate spot, which is already confirmed in Queensland.
Possible Senate numbers by State. pic.twitter.com/kpegQSrZ9k
— Glenn Druery (@GlennDruery) July 10, 2016
Our vote tracker is much more conservative. We’ve only awarded the Queensland spot to Hansen so far.
Updated
United by a love of Australia, respect for democracy and orange ties.
Is this a nod to the crossbenchers? Orange is the official campaign colour of independent Indi MP Cathy McGowan, the Nick Xenophon Team and Pauline Hansen’s One Nation.
Updated
Expect questions to be raised over whether this narrow election victory is sufficient to give the Coalition a mandate to implement its more contentious policies, like the promised company tax cut and the same-sex marriage plebescite.
According to Richard Ackland, Turnbull does not have a mandate:
Turnbull says he can form a majority government, in which event it will be a sour little victory – a victory without a mandate. The hard-right soul of the party is also in flames – just look at what happened in Tasmania where Senator Eric Abetz’s Christian regressives run the local machine. There’s no moral authority to be found there – all we might hope for is that now he sits quietly in a corner for a very long time.
You can read his full piece here.
Not a bad idea.
AFTER 60-ODD DAYS OF TORTURE, TURNBULL STILL PM, SHORTEN STILL LABOR LEADER. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A NATIONAL PUBLIC HOLIDAY AS COMPENSATION
— The NT News (@TheNTNews) July 10, 2016
A concession in tweets
Today I called Mr Turnbull to congratulate him. Although counting goes on, it's clear he will form either a minority or majority government.
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) July 10, 2016
I could not be prouder of Labor's campaign & all who were part of it - we will never stop fighting for Medicare, schools and Australian jobs
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) July 10, 2016
Mark Textor is celebrating.
That's a win. #6.
— Mark Textor (@AGFchairman) July 10, 2016
A rather damning review of electronic voting, from the last time the parliament took a look at it.
Via Crikey’s Josh Taylor.
The last parliamentary committee's view on electronic voting after the last election. https://t.co/8vgqGzqt22 pic.twitter.com/WsCRGgCvL7
— Josh Taylor (@joshgnosis) July 10, 2016
A few thoughts on Turnbull’s speech, before we take a look at the reaction and offer the more expert analysis of my Canberra colleagues.
Obviously a victory speech given at 3pm on a Sunday, eight days after the election itself, is going to feel rather different to one given amidst the adreneline and slightly deflated balloons of election night itself. But even allowing for that difference, Turnbull’s address was odd and unfocused, as if he had not taken any time in the past eight days to think about what he might say.
He’s always a bit more free-form than Shorten, who sometimes sounds rehearsed, but today I think Shorten’s approach worked better.
It’s the future, it’s the vibe
Turnbull finished what was a rather odd victory speech by offering some reflections on his granddaughter, Isla, and sharing his reinforced revelation that children are the future.
I know many people probably think I’m an unduly sentimental fellow, sentimental bloke, but I was touched, deeply touched, that when Bill Shorten rang I was holding my one-year-old granddaughter...
It’s a reminder, you know, it’s a beautiful reminder that we are trustees, all of us, me and Bill and all of us, we are trustees for future generations.
Politics, Turnbull said, is not about the politicians, it’s not about the media, it’s about the Australian people and the as yet unborn grandchildren of the Australian people, the Australian people of the future.
Updated
Electronic voting, robocalls and text messages to be the focus of electoral reform
Bill Shorten made a push in his concessions speech for electronic voting, saying “if we’re a grown up democracy, we should not be waiting eight days to find out who won and who lost”.
Tunbull gave that suggestion his enthusiastic support (“That has been a passion of mine, or an interest of mine, for a long time.”) but went on to suggest a range of other electoral reforms, picking up the complaint he made on his 12.30am speech on election night about those robocalls and text messages, which almost cost the Coalition the election.
He said that millions of robocalls were made during the campaign (“some people got six, seven, eight a night”) and that they were “basically unregulated ... basically existing in a legal vacuum”.
The same charge was levelled at campaign text messages, which “basically operate below the radar of the mainstream media”.
Some of these calls and messages were extremely deceptive and targeted at those most likely to be misled.
I’m no expert on victory speeches, but it seemed a tad ungracious to get into that today, just as it did to discuss them on election night.
Updated
Good government, wise legislation, sound policies
Continuing on his theme of being constructive and working together, Turnbull has pitched his new government as a collaborative, future-looking beast.
He said his message to the Australian people was to:
... commit to them anew our absolutely unrelenting determination to ensure that this parliament delivers good government, wise legislation, and builds on the strength of our economy to ensure that truly our best days are a head of us.
He dismissed a questions suggesting the victory was somewhat dampened by the Coalition not actually having a majority yet.
Well, we’ve won the election. That’s what we’ve done, we’ve won the election.
Crossbenchers to be given extra support
Turnbull thanked all crossbenchers, especially Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter who have guaranteed supply, and Andrew Wilkie, who promised not to support a vote of no confidence in a Turnbull government.
He also mentioned that the crossbenchers will be given the same support they received under the Gillard minority government in the 43rd parliament.
It is my commitment to work in every way possible to ensure that the crossbenchers have access to all of the information they need and all of the resources they need to be able to play the role they need in this parliament … our intention is to reinstate the resource arrangements that were in place in the 43rd parliament.
Turnbull played down the potentially chaotic nature of the new Senate, saying there were eight crossbenchers in the last Senate and the expectation was for nine on the crossbench in this Senate.
Despite the Senate apparently not being an issue, he emphasised his respect for every parliamentarian.
Every member of the House and Senate deserve respect because they have been elected by the Australian people.
Updated
‘It is vital that we work together’
Turnbull’s victory speech is very heavy on unity, which I suspect was directed at his own party as much as it was the new class of crossbenchers in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
It is vital that this parliament work. It is vital that we work together and as far as we can ensure that we all agree … consistent with our policies that we took to the election
There was then a pause to congratulate every candidate, even those who he a) doesn’t like, and b) didn’t win.
I want to thank all the people who ran for parliament. All of them, even the ones that we vehemently disagree with.
And then a few cheers for Australian democracy as an institution.
It delivers and it works very well and we should all be very proud of that.
Updated
Turnbull also acknowledged the Coalition MPs who lost their seats last Saturday – there have been at least a dozen.
It is a tough business and I want to acknowledge the hard work they have done and the pain they are going through.
Updated
Malcolm Turnbull declares victory
The prime minister elect, Malcolm Turnbull, has opened his victory speech with an Oscar-length run of thanks for family members, candidates and the family members of candidates.
He said he took a call from Bill Shorten earlier today.
Earlier today Bill Shorten called me and congratulated me on being re-elected as prime minister, and I thanked Bill for that call.
Excited grandfather Turnbull made an appearance.
I have to say on a family note when Bill called me I had my granddaughter Isla on my left hip so she was a one year old witness to history.
Updated
A democracy vindicated, a sausage sizzled
Here’s a bit more of Bill Shorten’s concessions speech, in which he said the result vindicated our system of democracy.
Whilst counting has not concluded in a number of very close seats, it is clear that Mr Turnbull and his Coalition will form a government. Whether or not it is a minority government or a majority government of one or two seats, it is clear they will form a government.
So I have spoken to Mr Turnbull early this afternoon to congratulate him and Lucy and to wish them my very best.
Shorten said he and Turnbull were united by their love of Australia, democracy, and democracy sausages.
When we look at the world around us, it is fantastic that the Australian people can settle their political disagreements in thousands of school halls over sausage sizzles voting in ballot boxes. It is the way that it should be.
And Australians, again, have vindicated our system of democracy ... I hope for our nation’s sake that the Coalition does a good job. I hope they run a good government. Australians expect nothing less of the 45th parliament ... I pledge and I have indicated to Mr Turnbull that where there is common ground, we will work very hard to accomplish it. I understand that we have an opportunity here, the Australian people expect all sides of politics to work in the national interest, in the interest of the people, not just themselves.
So I understand that we need to make this parliament function. And we will be up for that.
My colleague, Paul Karp, has more detail here.
Updated
While we wait for Malcolm Turnbull to address the media, here’s an update on the seat count.
It has been clear for a couple of days that the Turnbull government was certain of forming government.
As of Friday, we said that the Coalition had won 72 seats and was almost certain of winning Gilmore. By Friday those 73 seats were supplemented by assurances from independent MPs Bob Katter, Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie that they would not support a no-confidence motion in the Coalition government.
It’s clear that the Turnbull government will be able to continue as a minority government, but they also have a good shot of winning a majority.
We called Gilmore last night after more counting made it clear. That’s 73 Coalition seats. The Coalition is also leading in Capricornia, Flynn and Forde, which would give them a majority. They also have a chance of winning Cowan, Herbert and Hindmarsh.
Updated
The prime minister (and prime minister elect, now), Malcolm Turnbull, is expected to address the media in Sydney at 2.30pm.
It has taken us a week to get here, but it looks like we’ve got a new government, same as the old government.
Updated
At this stage of the extremely protracted vote count, the Coalition has 73 seats to the Labor party’s 66.
The seats of Capricornia, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan are still undecided. As of Friday, the Coalition was only leading in Forde, which would leave the Coalition two seats short of the 76 needed for a majority.
Malcolm Turnbull has secured the support of independents Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter, who have promised to guarantee supply.
You can follow our live results tracker here.
Updated
Bill Shorten has conceded defeat
Seven days after the polls closed, Labor leader Bill Shorten has conceded the federal election, telling reporters at a press conference in Melbourne today that it was “clear that Malcolm Turnbull will form a government”.
Shorten said he called Turnbull earlier on Sunday to congratulate him on the win, although it’s not yet clear whether Turnbull will govern in minority or majority.
Updated
