Australia expects net overseas migration to reach nearly one million people over four financial years through July 2029, according to new federal budget estimates, as cited by ABC News, triggering renewed political debate over housing pressure and immigration levels.
The updated projections show that migration numbers for the current and next financial years have been revised upward by 55,000 compared with earlier forecasts.
Under the latest estimates, Australia expects net overseas migration of 295,000 people in 2025-26 and 245,000 in 2026-27. Migration is then projected to remain at 225,000 annually through 2028-29, as per ABC News report. Government figures showed the country could see around 990,000 additional migrants over the four-year period.
Student migration remains under focus
Temporary visa holders, particularly international students, continue to make up the largest migrant group contributing to population growth in Australia.
The debate over migration levels has intensified amid concerns that housing construction is failing to keep pace with population growth. Based on average household size estimates, the additional migration could require around 22,000 more homes.
Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume criticised the government’s migration management, linking higher migration to housing shortages and infrastructure strain.
“That excessive migration is causing problems with housing. It's causing problems in our health care system. It's causing problems with our infrastructure, and it's out of control,” Hume said.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the higher figures reflected temporary migrants staying longer in Australia rather than a major rise in arrivals. He also said migration had fallen significantly from post-pandemic peaks.
“Net overseas migration has actually come down 45 per cent from its peak,” Chalmers said.
The government said measures included in the budget are aimed at easing migration pressure, including prioritising migrants already in Australia for permanent residency pathways.
Coalition and One Nation push for tougher curbs
The revised forecasts have added momentum to calls from opposition parties for tighter migration controls.
Opposition leader Angus Taylor is expected to unveil a proposal aimed at linking migration levels to housing construction rates.
Meanwhile, One Nation has intensified demands for sharp cuts to migration and stricter action on visa overstayers.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan specifically targeted student migration, saying the government needed to address what he described as a “student visa scam.”
The federal government had earlier attempted to introduce legislation capping international student enrolments at 270,000, but the proposal faced opposition.
Migration has become a major political issue in Australia as rising rents, housing shortages and cost-of-living pressures continue to dominate public debate ahead of future elections.
