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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Alex Jennings

Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool prediction: How will Champions League fixture play out tonight?

Champions League holders Liverpool will need to summon another famous European comeback at Anfield next month after they were beaten 1-0 away to Atletico Madrid in their last-16 first leg on Tuesday.

Spain midfielder Saul Niguez struck the only goal of the game in the fourth minute by bundling into the net from close range following a corner, their traditional weapon of choice in recent years.

Liverpool, who have won 25 of 26 Premier League games this season and are on course for a record-smashing title win, missed a series of chances to equalise in the second half, with Mohamed Salah and captain Jordan Henderson coming closest to scoring.

Juergen Klopp's side play at home to Atletico on March 11 in the return leg at Anfield, where they produced an incredible 4-0 win over Barcelona in last year's semi-final second leg after losing the first match 3-0. 

Welcome along to our live coverage of Liverpool's trip to Atletico Madrid. Karl will be here shortly with all the build-up; in the meantime, here's Melissa Reddy's preview to the big game:
Evening all! Team news will be here shortly as the Champions League returns to our screens. It's the last 16, first leg, and the venue is a familiar one for both teams: the home of Atletico Madrid and the stadium Liverpool won last season's final in.
The two teams' form couldn't be much different heading into this game.
Atleti have dropped out of the title fight in LaLiga and sit fourth after just one win in the last five. Across all competitions, it's one win in seven for Diego Simeone's side.
As for Liverpool, they've only known winning of late. An absurd 17 straight wins in the Premier League have them 25 points clear at the top, with the title in sight. Across all competitions it's 13 wins in the last 14 games, with the one side who held them to a draw being...Shrewsbury.
TEAM NEWS!

Jurgen Klopp has named his starting XI and it's exactly as expected.

Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Fabinho, Henderson, Wijnaldum; Salah, Mane, Firmino.

Subs: Adrian, Milner, Matip, Keita, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Minamino, Origi.
TEAM NEWS!

Simeone recalls Thomas Lemar and the fit-again Alvaro Morata for the home team.

Atletico: Oblak; Vrsaljko, Savic, Felipe, Lodi; Koke, Thomas, Saul, Lemar; Correa, Morata.

Subs: Adan, Gimenez, Hermoso, Llorente, Vitolo, Carrasco, D. Costa.
So, how did the two teams arrive here tonight? In terms of qualification obviously, not "by bus."

Atletico only won three of their six group games, but that was enough for second ahead of Bayer Leverkusen and behind Juventus. At home, they won two and drew one.

Liverpool finished top, one point clear of Napoli, despite not actually beating the Italian side. Four wins against the other opponents was enough after the Serie A side drew against both Salzburg and Genk.
Worth noting there are a few players not on show tonight for the home team.

Summer signing Joao Felix has been injured and is also ill, so misses out, while Kieran Trippier is still recovering after an operation. Also no Hector Herrera or Santiago Arias in tonight's squad.

Liverpool have Xherdan Shaqiri still out injured, while neither of Dejan Lovren or Adam Lallana make the matchday 18.
This team is largely the strongest-looking Liverpool team for most people. By games played, it's the most popular lineup. And yet...it has never started a fixture!
Club statistician Ged Rea in fact notes that the Reds have only had one short spell in a game where these 11 players all played together - quite the quirk for a perceived favoured XI!
It's worth noting that, for all their reduced efficiency and form this season, at home Atletico are still tough to beat. Only Real Madrid and Barcelona have left with victories from Atleti's last 40 home games.
Half an hour to kick-off!

Let's look at a few potential key performers tonight...

Roberto Firmino is crucial to this Liverpool team and all ten of his goals this season have come away from Anfield. One tonight will be 40th away goal for the club! He hasn't scored in the Champions League this season, but he does have three assists - that's the highest in the squad.
Atletico Madrid are a team who have shared around responsibility at the top end of the pitch this season.

In European games, no player has scored more than two goals and no player has made more than one assist so far this term.

Domestically, though, Angel Correa has been a big performer for them, often up front instead of his old role as a battling right-sided outlet. Four goals and five assists in LaLiga showcase his importance and they'll need him dropping into the channels tonight, with Morata not yet fully fit.
The two managers are among the most admired in European football these days. Both demand lots of work ethic, both have won major titles. Both want a win tonight.
Kick-off approaching

This could be the first of several epic encounters across the last 16. Which way will this 90 minutes go though? Atletico surely need something positive, given how strong Liverpool are at home. On the other hand, if the Reds play as they usually do, they could dominate enough to get chances and score one or two themselves.
KICK OFF
Kick-off!
We are underway at the Wanda Metropolitano and the Champions League is back!
Atletico Madrid 0-0 Liverpool
2' - Jeers from the home side as the Reds earn some early possession. A few early nerves on show too perhaps, judging by one or two overhit passes.
GOAL!
GOAL! Atletico Madrid 1-0 Liverpool
3' - What a start for the home team! A corner is swung over by Koke, bounces off Fabinho's foot and falls to Saul - who side-foots home from two yards! 
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Liverpool
6' - In games with a full-strength team, that's the first goal Liverpool have conceded since Wolves, just under a month ago. What a boost for Atletico, who have started really well. Correa races away down the left channel and puts a ball along the six-yard box, but nobody is there and he's flagged offside anyway.
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Liverpool
10' - Firmino wins possession for Liverpool in the Atletico half, but a first crossing chance for Trent Alexander-Arnold ends in a wayward delivery. The away team just starting to settle a little now on the ball.
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Liverpool
13' - Another cross into the crowd from Alexander-Arnold, with two waiting for the ball into the middle. Liverpool have Atletico pinned back now, two banks of four on the edge of their own box. Very compact, very organised from the home team.
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Liverpool

16' - Atletico have never lost a Champions League knock-out match at home under Simeone. Liverpool have never lost a two-legged tie in any European competition under Klopp. Will either statistic give over the 180 minutes?

When is the match 

The match kicks off at 8pm at the Wanda Metropolitano.

What TV channel is it on? 

The game will be broadcast to BT Sport subscribers on BT Sport 2.

Viewers can also access coverage online via the BT Sport app. 

Prediction

Liverpool to be too good for Atletico and hurt them with their pace, winning 1-0 in a game of few chances. 

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