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The redistricting wars are underway again, with the Texas Legislature meeting in special session starting this week.
In Austin, Democrats are pledging to do what they can to drag the process out, while Republicans are aiming to redraw the Texas congressional map to add a handful of seats to their column and help preserve their House majority.
“Just a very simple redrawing, we pick up five seats,” Trump told reporters outside the White House on July 15.
A DCCC memo from executive director Julie Merz circulated on Tuesday suggested Trump’s idea could dilute incumbency advantage. According to their polling, “in no hypothetical Republican primary matchup did a congressional Republican incumbent garner more than 50% of the vote among Republican voters.”
That may not matter to the president, whose goal would be keeping Democrats from winning either chamber of Congress in the midterms and launching investigations into, well, Jeffrey Epstein or anything else.
But Democrats argue there could be more competitive seats created.
“If they’re going to start moving voters around … they’re going to create vulnerabilities on their side, and those are huge opportunities for us,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene of Washington said Wednesday at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast.
California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has threatened to retaliate, but unlike Texas Republicans, the path for California Democrats is more complicated because there is no similarly easy way to order a map redraw.
“Not only do I think he should do this, I don’t think he should wait for Texas. In other words, why the f— are we responding and reacting to the other side instead of taking the offense on these things?” former Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a past Senate candidate who may run again in 2026, said of Newsom during an event hosted by the Center for American Progress on Tuesday.
One option for Democrats could be Maryland, where they could try to eliminate Rep. Andy Harris’ Eastern Shore-based district, the lone GOP seat in the state. But such a redraw could have implications for Democratic incumbents, and an earlier attempt to draw an 8-0 map in Democrats’ favor was blocked as unconstitutional.
The GOP has a number of opportunities, however.
Ohio Republicans, who hold 10 of the state’s 15 seats, are set to redraw their map this fall and target up to three Democratic incumbents. There’s also an effort to craft a 7-1 map in Missouri that targets Kansas City Democrat Emanuel Cleaver II, which Punchbowl News reported is of interest to the Trump White House. Florida, where the state Supreme Court recently upheld the 2022 dismantling of a Black-majority district, could yield further gains for House Republicans.
Starting gate
Utility players: Last year, Donald Trump won the presidency while running on the slogan “Drill, baby, drill” and frequently criticizing solar and wind energy. But now, Democrats believe they can win votes by arguing that less support for renewables will raise Americans’ energy bills.
Lawler passes on governorship: New York Rep. Mike Lawler will run for reelection next year rather than try to become the state’s first Republican governor in two decades. The move likely gives House Republicans their best chance of holding his Hudson Valley seat.
And Huizenga isn’t running for Senate: Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga said Wednesday that he would not run for the state’s open Senate seat next year, seemingly clearing the field for former Rep. Mike Rogers to be the Republican nominee. Unlike Lawler, Huizenga has not yet said whether he will run for reelection to the House instead.
Central Valley rematch: Republican Kevin Lincoln, who came within 4 points of unseating Democratic Rep. Josh Harder in California’s 9th District last year, is making another run for the competitive seat in the Central Valley.
In memoriam: Democratic former Rep. William Lacy Clay Sr., a founding member of the Congressional Black Caucus who represented parts of his hometown St. Louis for 16 terms, died last week at age 94.
ICYMI
#NCSEN: Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whately plans to run for the open Senate seat in North Carolina, Politico first reported. Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, said she is taking a pass on the race. Meanwhile, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, could launch his campaign to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis as early as Monday.
#WIGOV: Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers announced in a social media video Thursday that he will not seek a third term next year, citing a desire to spend more time with his family. Evers’ decision sets up what is likely to be a heated race to succeed him in the battleground state. Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann and businessman Bill Berrien are already seeking the GOP nomination, while Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany is weighing a bid.
House launches (Republicans’ version): Minnesota state Sen. Eric Pratt has entered the race for the competitive 2nd District, which Democrat Angie Craig is vacating to run for Senate. Pratt joins Tyler Kistner, the 2020 and 2022 GOP nominee, in the primary. In South Texas, Army veteran and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores is the first prominent Republican to launch a challenge to vulnerable Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th District. And in Kentucky, Republican Ralph Alvarado, a former state senator who later became Tennessee’s health department commissioner, is running to succeed Senate hopeful Andy Barr in the 6th District.
House launches (Democrats’ version): Former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez is making a second run to unseat Republican Rep. Eli Crane in Arizona’s 2nd District. He has already picked up the support of the state’s two senators, fellow Democrats Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego. In Nebraska’s battleground 2nd District, county court clerk Crystal Rhoades has jumped into the crowded Democratic primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon. And in Colorado, the Democratic race for the swingy 8th District also got busier, with Marine veteran Evan Munsing announcing a challenge to Republican freshman Gabe Evans.
Dropping a bid: Michigan Democrat Tripp Adams, an Army and Navy veteran, said he was suspending his campaign for the state’s 10th District, an open seat that Republican John James is vacating to run for governor. Adams said in a statement that he needed to prioritize his mental health.
Balancing the ticket: New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli has named Morris County Sheriff Jim Gannon as his running mate. Most of Morris County lies within the state’s 11th District, currently represented by Rep. Mikie Sherill, Ciattarelli’s Democratic opponent. Sherrill has until Monday to select her running mate.
Primary watch: In Connecticut’s deep-blue 1st District, longtime Rep. John B. Larson has another Democratic challenger: Southington Town Council member Jack Perry. Across state lines in Massachusetts, Democrat Seth Moulton drew a primary challenge from software engineer Beth Andres-Beck.
Guv roundup: Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson has entered the crowded Republican primary for the state’s open governorship. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. David Toland said he would not run to succeed his term-limited boss, Laura Kelly, next year, while state Sen. Ethan Corson became the second prominent Democrat to join the race. In Minnesota, Republican former state Sen. Scott Jensen is making a second bid for governor after losing to Democrat Tim Walz in 2022. Walz has not yet said whether he will seek a third term next year. And in Nevada, Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill said she plans to join state Attorney General Aaron Ford in the Democratic primary to take on Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.
New leader on Main Street: Nebraska Rep. Mike Flood is the new chairman of the Republican Main Street Caucus, succeeding Rep. Dusty Johnson, who stepped aside to focus on his run for South Dakota governor.
Targeting vulnerable Democrats: The National Republican Congressional Committee launched an ad campaign taking aim at 15 House Democrats who represent districts with a significant military presence. The spot cites their opposition to the massive GOP budget law, which contained funding for servicemembers’ housing, health care and child care, to assert that Democrats “sacrifice” troops’ well-being for politics.
Nathan’s notes
Roll Call elections analyst Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections joined Roll Call Managing Editor Jessica Wehrman on this week’s “Political Theater” podcast. They discussed Nathan’s visit to the Cedar Point amusement park in Ohio and looked at the 2026 map, including what he termed the “core four” Senate contests in Maine, North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan.
What we’re reading
Stocks, stocks, stocks: New Jersey Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr. was elected in 2022 after a campaign that focused in part on an ethics investigation into his Democratic opponent’s disclosures of stock trades. Now, Kean himself is facing criticism over how he’s handled his own investments, according to NJ.com.
Social media lookback: The Free Press dug into the Twitter archives of Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for New York City mayor. His 16,100 tweets, sent over a span of 18 years, paint “a portrait of a man with a revolutionary vision for America,” the outlet reports.
Senate specials: Sens. Jon Husted of Ohio and Ashley Moody of Florida were appointed to the Senate this year after their predecessors joined the Trump administration, prompting some concerns in their home states about whether there could be messy special election primaries for their seats in 2026. But NBC News reports that both Husted and Moody have so far steered clear of any primary challengers with strong fundraising and, in Husted’s case, an endorsement from Trump.
Immigration questions: Colorado Republican Gabe Evans, a strong supporter of Trump’s hard-line immigration policies, has made his family history as the grandson of a Mexican immigrant a centerpiece of his political biography. But Colorado Newsline reviewed records and found that “Evans has mischaracterized the story of how his Depression-era ancestors achieved the American dream.”
Home is where the heart is: Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton and his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, are longtime owners of a $1.5 million house in a gated community outside Dallas and two other homes in Austin. But mortgage papers signed by the Republican Senate candidate and his now-estranged spouse contained inaccurate information claiming each of the homes as the couple’s primary residence, according to a review of mortgage documents by The Associated Press.
The count: 5
Of the seven Trump immigration policies or proposals polled by AtlasIntel in a survey released last week, that’s how many were supported more by Hispanic respondents than by Asian, Black, white and “other” American adults.
While the poll found that 59.1 percent of Hispanic adults disapproved of the job Trump was doing as president — that’s a level behind only the 86.2 percent by Black respondents — Hispanic Americans were also the most supportive of some of the administration’s most contentious immigration policies and proposals, including ones (such as workplace raids) that have hit the community hard.
Hispanics polled were the most supportive of:
- Deporting undocumented immigrants with a criminal record (91.5 percent)
- Deporting undocumented immigrants without allowing them a court hearing (52.3 percent)
- Conducting immigration raids at workplaces (51.2 percent)
- Deporting undocumented immigrants to countries where they are not citizens (40.8 percent)
- Prohibiting international students from attending U.S. universities, e.g. Harvard (38.7 percent)
They were the second-most supportive of the two other policies or proposals polled, trailing respondents in the “other” category:
- Offering $1,000 and a free flight for undocumented immigrants who self-deport (57.1 percent)
- Arresting American politicians or judges who fail to cooperate with immigration enforcement operations (48.3 percent)
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
The House has begun its summer recess early, but the Senate is set for at least one more workweek, with senators currently scheduled to wrap up their session by Aug. 1.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Redrawing the majority? appeared first on Roll Call.
