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After quelling a potential uprising from fiscal conservatives, House Republicans handed President Donald Trump a big win Thursday when they approved the massive tax and spending package that’s key to his domestic policy vision.
“Republicans in Congress have succeeded in our mission to enact President Trump’s America First agenda,” Speaker Mike Johnson said in a statement praising the legislation, dubbed the “one big beautiful bill.”
But Republicans also handed Democrats, who are united in their opposition, a midterm message. The party’s leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, didn’t have the votes to scuttle the measure he’s taken to calling the “one big ugly bill,” but he used his record-breaking floor speech to highlight its less popular elements, such as cuts to Medicaid and food assistance benefits and tax cuts for wealthy Americans.
During his eight-hour, 44-minute, 25-second talkfest, Jeffries called the measure an “extraordinary assault” on the economy, veterans, small businesses, farmers and health care. “Beginning on Jan. 20, a flood of extremism the likes of which have never before been seen in the United States of America has been unleashed on the American people, an all-out assault on the American way of life,” he said.
Polls show several parts of the budget bill are unpopular with voters: Several recent surveys found support for the measure underwater.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said it plans to use the bill to hammer Republicans, particularly those hailing from swing districts who’ve expressed concerns that the sweeping measure could lead to the closure of rural hospitals and hurt vulnerable populations. Jeffries name-dropped several of them in his floor remarks, including Reps. David Valadao of California, Mike Lawler of New York and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa. All ended up voting for the measure, which saw just two Republican defections: Kentucky’s Thomas Massie and Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick, a co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus.
Republicans will embark on their own messaging mission, focusing on the bill’s more popular aspects, such as provisions to temporarily eliminate federal taxes on tips and bolster funding for border security.
“Democrats want to maintain the status quo,” North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in an op-ed for Breitbart News. “Republicans want you to keep more of what you earn. That’s the choice. And that’s the message we’ll be driving home across every battleground in America.”
Johnson reiterated that point in his statement after the bill’s passage.
“It should never be forgotten that every single House Democrat voted against all of it,” he said.
Starting gate
Heading for the exits: North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis and Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon became the latest members of the Republican mainstream to opt for retirement this past week, as Trump tightens his grip on the modern GOP.
Allred again: Texas Democrat Colin Allred, a former NFL player who served three terms in the House, is running for Senate for the second straight cycle, this time for the seat held by Republican John Cornyn. In 2024, Allred lost to Cornyn’s colleague, Sen. Ted Cruz, by more than 8 points.
South Dakota launch: Rep. Dusty Johnson, South Dakota’s at-large member of Congress, joined a growing field of Republicans running for governor of the Mount Rushmore State. In his launch video, the co-chair of the Main Street Caucus highlighted his record of supporting Trump on immigration and other issues.
Evans out: Pennsylvania Rep. Dwight Evans, who’s faced health issues over the past year, announced this week that he won’t seek a sixth full term representing his western Philadelphia district next year. The Democrat has been a mainstay in Keystone State politics for decades, serving more than 35 years in the state House before his election to Congress.
Special election set: Democrat James Walkinshaw easily won his party’s nomination over the weekend in the special election to succeed his former boss, the late Virginia Rep. Gerald E. Connolly. Walkinshaw, a Fairfax County supervisor, will face Republican Army veteran Stewart Whitson in the Sept. 9 contest for the remainder of Connolly’s term.
Wait till next term: The Supreme Court last week delayed a decision on the constitutionality of Louisiana’s congressional map, announcing it needed more information and that the case would be re-argued next term. The Louisiana map was redrawn last cycle to include a second Black-majority district. Separately, the court announced this week that it would also hold oral arguments next term on a Republican-led challenge to the limits on how much national political parties can spend in coordination with federal candidates.
ICYMI
That was fast: Two months after announcing his bid to unseat Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Democrat Kevin Techau has suspended his campaign for the 2nd District. The former U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Iowa said he wasn’t able to meet “the threshold level [of fundraising] that this race demands.”
Torres takes a pass: Rep. Ritchie Torres says he’s unlikely to run for governor of New York in 2026. The Bronx Democrat had been weighing a primary challenge to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, but he told MSNBC he wants to remain in Congress to “fight the catastrophe that is the Trump presidency.”
Backing Foxx: Leaders We Deserve, the group led by former Democratic National Committee vice chair David Hogg, is backing Deja Foxx in this month’s Democratic primary for the special election in Arizona’s 7th District. Foxx is one of five Democrats competing to fill the Tucson-centered seat left open by the death of Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva in March. The field also includes Grijalva’s daughter, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva.
Republican primaries: Former South Carolina Lt. Gov. André Bauer has launched a primary challenge against Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, questioning the incumbent’s conservative bona fides. Graham already has Trump’s endorsement. And in Kentucky, businessman Nate Morris became the third high-profile Republican to join the race to succeed retiring former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
On the House battleground ballot: Retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican freshman Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th District. In Nebraska, Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding has entered the GOP primary to succeed retiring Rep. Bacon in the 2nd District. And in California, Democratic freshman George Whitesides got his first high-profile Republican challenger when Santa Clarita Councilman Jason Gibbs entered the race. Gibbs has the backing of former Rep. Mike Garcia, whom Whitesides unseated last year.
Getting crowded in Texas: George Foreman IV, the son of the celebrated late boxer and businessman, is running as an independent in the Nov. 4 special election for Texas’ 18th District. Foreman joins a staggering field of more than two dozen candidates looking to fill the remaining term of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner, a former Houston mayor who died in March.
Lawsuit refiled: Trump this week filed a motion to drop his federal lawsuit against Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer over a public opinion survey that showed him trailing former Vice President Kamala Harris in the state during the run-up to the 2024 election. He later refiled the lawsuit, which alleges that the Iowa poll amounted to election interference, in state court.
Nathan’s notes
Since at least 1930, each election cycle has seen an average of five open Senate seats. With Tillis retiring, there are now seven senators who’ve decided against seeking another term in the chamber next year. And that list could grow, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes.
What we’re reading
Stu says: Roll Call political analyst Stuart Rothenberg takes a look at the New York City mayoral race and draws a few parallels between presumptive Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani and himself.
More Mamdani: Mamdani’s victory in New York City, which ranked-choice tabulations confirmed this week, wasn’t the first time the self-described democratic socialist had taken on the establishment and won. Slate writer Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon, who attended middle school with Mamdani, looks back on a mock presidential election at their school — and 12-year-old Mamdani’s upset win.
Tweeting from the grave: Politico reviewed the social media accounts of several recently deceased lawmakers and found that they are continuing to weigh in on a variety of topics, from posthumous endorsements to recent election results.
Next phase: NOTUS spotlights the push to restrict the use of mifepristone, one of the drugs used in medication abortions. The effort is largely funded by a dark money group aligned with conservative legal activist Leonard Leo, the outlet reports.
Leaning in in the Lone Star State: The Texas Tribune takes a look at Cornyn’s efforts to embrace the president as he stares down the “toughest electoral challenge” of his long career.
The count: 221,641
That’s the average number of people who receive their health insurance through Medicaid in the 62 House districts rated as competitive by Inside Elections. The total is about 5 percent higher than in the average noncompetitive House district (210,973).
Similarly, the average competitive House district has 17,037 children receiving health care through the Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP, which is nearly 6 percent higher than in districts rated safe for either party.
Although Trump said last week that Medicaid was “left alone” in the budget reconciliation bill, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the measure would cut gross federal Medicaid and CHIP spending by $1.02 trillion over the next 10 years. It expects that 11.8 million more people will be uninsured over the period as a result of the legislation.
Democrats and some town hall attendees have warned that Medicaid eligibility and financial cuts would result in people dying, but the White House and Republican supporters have argued that the cuts are about eliminating waste and fraud and target “able-bodied adults” who choose not to work.
— By Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
Trump is expected to sign the sweeping budget reconciliation bill on Friday after Republicans delivered him his signature domestic policy legislation a day ahead of his requested July 4 deadline.
At the Races wishes our readers a happy and peaceful Independence Day!
Photo finish
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