Welcome to a special edition of At the Races! Throughout the 2026 primary season, watch for these updates from the CQ Roll Call campaign team on what you need to know for Election Day. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here.
By Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari
The two flanks of the Democratic Party face off again Tuesday, with a Senate primary in Minnesota and a gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin serving as the latest tests of progressive momentum and “electability” concerns.
In the North Star State, progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan looks to clinch the Democratic Senate nomination over Rep. Angie Craig, who has faced competitive elections for a Twin Cities-area swing seat she first flipped in 2018.
Flanagan has the endorsement of retiring Sen. Tina Smith and has campaigned with her and Sen. Bernie Sanders, among others. She has also criticized Craig for voting for a measure known as the Laken Riley Act, which imposed stricter punishment on undocumented immigrants accused of theft and violent crimes.
Those attacks have been especially resonant in a state that was rocked by the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policy earlier this year, when two Minnesota residents were fatally shot by federal agents.
But Flanagan has trailed Craig in fundraising. And Craig has sought to tie her rival to a fraud scandal over state-run social programs while portraying herself as the stronger general election candidate. Craig has also touted her position as the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, a role she won in late 2024 by challenging a more senior Democrat.
The winner is likely to face Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster whom national Republicans recruited in the hope of winning a statewide race in Minnesota for the first time in 20 years. Tafoya faces three opponents in her primary, including former NBA player Royce White, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2024, and retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who has the state GOP endorsement.
Still, Minnesota is likely to be an uphill climb for Republicans this fall. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Likely Democratic.
In neighboring Wisconsin, Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany faces only nominal primary opposition in his quest to flip the state’s governorship.
The Democratic primary has been more chaotic, with candidates dropping out and one reentering the race in the closing weeks.
Polls show state Rep. Francesca Hong, a self-described democratic socialist whose past social media posts have come under scrutiny, is the front-runner. Her leading opponent is Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who jumped back into the race last month with an endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers.
Moderate Democrats, including Evers, have warned that Hong could have a more difficult time defeating Tiffany than Crowley.
Hong also has not won endorsements from notable progressives such as Sanders or New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who have weighed in on other key races this year.
Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up.
South Carolina
Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sudden death last month, just weeks after he won the Republican nomination for a fifth term, has upended politics in the Palmetto State.
The late senator’s sister, Darline Graham, was sworn in to complete his remaining tenure, and with President Donald Trump’s backing, is now seeking a full six-year term.
Nine other Republicans are competing in Tuesday’s special primary to replace Lindsey Graham on the November ballot, including Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman; former Gov. Mark Sanford, who also served in the House; and businessman Mark Lynch, who finished second to Lindsey Graham in the regular June primary.
The number of contenders makes a runoff — scheduled for Aug. 25 – more likely since it will be harder for any candidate to clear 50 percent of the vote Tuesday.
The winner will face pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic nomination in June.
Inside Elections rates the race Likely Republican.
Connecticut
No House incumbent has ever faced a primary in Connecticut, but, this year, 14-term Democratic Rep. John B. Larson, 78, is fending off a trio of challengers: former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, Hartford school board member Ruth Fortune and state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest.
Unlike other blue-on-blue battles, the contest in Connecticut’s 1st District isn’t a struggle between the moderate and progressive wings of the party: The candidates largely agree on many key policy points.
Instead, the race has centered on a call for generational change, most pointedly from Bronin, 47, Larson’s best-known – and most well-funded – opponent.
More from Minnesota
Longtime Sen. Amy Klobuchar is the heavy favorite for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination Tuesday. Gov. Tim Walz had initially planned to run for a third term but reversed course as the statewide fraud scandal increased scrutiny on the 2024 Democratic nominee for vice president.
Several Republicans are seeking the party nod: businessman Kendall Qualls, who has the state GOP endorsement; MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, who has Trump’s backing; and Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, who has benefited from spending by a PAC largely funded by Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein’s network.
There are a handful of primaries for House races. The Democratic contest for the 2nd District, which Craig is vacating, features state Rep. Kaela Berg, state Sen. Matt Klein and former state Sen. Matt Little. Republican state Sen. Eric Pratt is unopposed in his primary.
Located just south of the Twin Cities, the district has historically been competitive, but Inside Elections rates the race Likely Democratic.
Democrats are also eyeing a potential pickup opportunity in the 1st District in southern Minnesota, where GOP Rep. Brad Finstad is seeking a third full term. The DCCC added public school teacher Jake Johnson to its Red to Blue program for promising recruits. Both Finstad and Johnson are favored to win their primaries Tuesday.
Some reality TV fans are also keeping tabs on the 8th District in the state’s Iron Range, where former “Summer House” star Luke Gulbranson is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Rep. Pete Stauber.
Inside Elections rates both the 1st and 8th district races Solid Republican.
More from Wisconsin
In Wisconsin’s battleground 3rd District, Democrat Rebecca Cooke is looking for a rematch with GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who defeated her by 3 points in 2024.
Cooke is the front-runner in Tuesday’s Democratic primary against former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge. She reported raising $8.6 million through July 22 and won an early endorsement from the DCCC.
Her supporters range from the moderate Blue Dog PAC to Sanders, who she has featured in recent ads. But Berge is hoping to tap into voters’ anti-establishment mood.
“I believe the people of Wisconsin get to decide what happens here, not the people who write the biggest checks,” Berge says in one ad.
Elsewhere in the state, the Republican primary to succeed Tiffany in the deep-red 7th District includes Michael Alfonso, the son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who previously held the largely rural seat. Alfonso, 26, has Trump’s backing but has faced nepotism claims, with a recent ad from an outside group branding him a “nepo baby.”
Photo finish
Subscribe now using this link so you don’t miss out on the best news and analysis from our team.
