Ashes 2025/2026 First Test Betting Tips
- Australia to win – 3pts win @ 8/11 (BetVictor)
- Top Australia batter: Travis Head – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365)
- Top England batter: Harry Brook – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Bet365)
- Top Australia bowler: Mitchell Starc – 1pt win @ 9/4 (BoyleSports)
- Top England bowler: Jofra Archer – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
- Man of the Match: Travis Head – 0.5pts win @ 11/1 (Bet365)
The first Test at Perth Stadium begins on Friday and I’ve taken a look at the best Ashes betting odds on the series opener.
Sport is regularly associated with ‘must win’ games, usually played down by players and coaches and ramped up by those tapping at a keyboard. I would venture to suggest that if the series opener is not one such Test, then history suggests it’s a ‘must not lose’ encounter where England are concerned.
The Ben Stokes-led squad has done some special things in recent seasons and nothing is impossible but one thing it hasn’t done is win an Ashes series Down Under, nor from behind. They must start well, because allowing Australia into an early lead is highly likely to cost them any chance of the series.
Not since Frank ‘Typhoon’ Tyson blasted the Aussies off the park in 1954-55, in an England side led by the great Sir Leonard Hutton, have the tourists come from behind in an away Ashes series and won it. That’s a whole 70 years.
A win by England would really set up the series but let’s not forget, their on-field preparation has been negligible in the build-up and they may rue that this week.
Ashes 2025 First Test Betting Prediction 1: Result: Australia to win – 3pts win @ 8/11 (BetVictor)
Ashes 2025 First Test betting: Starc to deliver for Australia
I recently spoke to former Australia fast bowler Jason Gillespie, who alongside Glenn McGrath completed the most potent opening partnership in Test history. Now whether it was a bit of Aussie bluff and bluster, time will tell but ‘Dizzy’ said that the pitches Down Under are not as fast and bouncy in nature this season as England have usually found.
He feels that England’s extreme pace will be negated to some extent by those conditions and, while Australia would miss Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood (both of whom miss this opening Test due to injuries), their probable replacements Scott Boland and Brendan Doggett possess the skills on their home turf to be a real threat.
Here lays a big opportunity for England. I know, Boland took 18 wickets at 9.55 in just three matches when the Aussies triumphed 4-0 Down Under in 2021-22. He’s no mug but nor has he been a first choice opener when Cummins and Hazlewood have been fit.
Brendan Doggett, who at the age of 31 could become the Aussies’ first fast bowling debutant for four years, has taken 190 first class wickets at 26.46, which should make him competitive but the fact remains that he’s not been picked for his country before now and therefore is not as feared as the two missing openers.
One man, however, who has been a key part of the Australian battery of fast bowlers in the past decade is Mitchell Starc. He’s consistent, still has pace, bowls a mean yorker and also has a different angle of attack. I’m backing him to take responsibility as the senior fast bowler and be the hosts’ top bowler in this Test with a solid price on betting sites.
Ashes 2025 First Test Betting Prediction 2: Top Australia Bowler: Mitchell Starc – 1pt win @ 9/4 (BoyleSports)
Ashes 2025 First Test prediction: Look out for Archer
The visitors have become known for their swashbuckling style of batting. It’s unlikely that will change under the current regime but I’d be urging Stokes to encourage his team to play in a slightly more measured fashion if they are to win sessions and build up to a Test success.
With another 31-year-old, Jake Weatherald, also looking likely to make his debut with the bat, there are potential ways where the tourists could turn up the heat against their opponents and win some key battles.
However, if they continue with an approach the gung ho approach that swings from the spectacular to the calamitous in what is such an important series for both nations, then I would fear the worst.
Provided both walk out to the middle in Perth, Mark Wood and Jofra Archer could prove serious threats. Wood’s Headingley spell in 2023 was the quickest I can ever recall witnessing and he doesn’t need to get too many deliveries spot on to have a major impact. Archer, probably the more consistent of the pair, is another who could rattle a few cages.
Ashes 2025 First Test Betting Prediction 3: Top England Bowler: Jofra Archer – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes)
Ashes 2025 First Test preview: Will Brook live up to expectations?
He may well emerge as England’s top scorer for the series and, if that’s to be the case, then I’m backing Harry Brook to get off to a good start.
If ever a batter was designed for England’s current modus operandi, it’s the Yorkshireman and he looks worth backing to lead the visitors’ charge.
He finished the final Test match of the English summer with a century to his name, albeit in a losing cause against India. Brook has a strong overseas Test match record, particularly in New Zealand.
If he can transfer those skills to an Australian environment, England will be well in the game at Optus Stadium. Brook is decent value on cricket betting sites to top the England run chart in the opener.
Ashes 2025 First Test Betting Prediction 4: Top England batter: Harry Brook – 1pt win @ 100/30 (Bet365)
Ashes 2025 First Test betting: Head to give Aussies the edge
One department where Australia have a clear edge is with spin. Nathan Lyon is a past master for the hosts, while Shoaib Bashir is very much still a work in progress and looked rusty in the warm-up, having just returned from injury.
On home turf, the Aussies still have formidable players in their batting line-up in Steve Smith and Travis Head, who will both probably be candidates for the series’ highest runscorers.
If they can get Marnus Labuschagne firing again, bearing in mind he hasn’t scored a Test ton in 30 innings since his 111 in the 2023 Ashes at Old Trafford, then they will still prove tough to topple.
Travis Head is such an exciting player and, as England have found out to their cost both at home and abroad, he can take a game away from you very quickly. He’ll give a chance now and again and England have got to be prepared to snaffle that because otherwise, he could run riot.
I’m keen on him as the Aussies’ top batter for the series and that can start with this opening Test, when he looks the value for those fancying a play on the man of the match market.
Ashes 2025 First Test Betting Prediction 5: Top Australia batter: Travis Head – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365)
Ashes 2025 First Test Betting Prediction 6: Man of the Match: Travis Head – 0.5pts win @ 11/1 (Bet365)
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