When a pair of House Democrats separately announced their Senate campaigns earlier this year, national Republicans declared that their goal of flipping their House seats had gotten easier.
Republicans have targeted New Hampshire’s Chris Pappas and Minnesota’s Angie Craig since they were both elected in 2018. That year, Craig flipped a seat just south of the Twin Cities, while Pappas kept a historically swingy seat in Democrats’ hands.
Democrats begin with the advantage in both districts, according to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, which rates the races Leans Democratic. But Republicans view Pappas’ and Craig’s departures as prime opportunities to flip seats that have proved elusive in recent cycles.
“The writing is on the wall for House Democrats,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Their failing party has no leader, no message, and no solutions. Republicans look forward to flipping these open seats red.”
Open seats are often considered easier to flip because it can be difficult to oust an incumbent. But they’re far from a sure bet for the opposing party. Of the four open battleground districts where the incumbent was seeking higher office last year, Republicans flipped just one of them.
“The [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] is confident we will keep these seats in Democratic hands come 2026 because House Republicans and their candidates have proven they are incapable of doing anything except kowtowing to [Donald] Trump and his cost-raising, economy-crashing agenda,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said.
Meanwhile, Democrats have an open-seat target of their own in Kentucky’s 6th District, where Republican incumbent Andy Barr is running for Senate. And Michigan’s 10th District, where GOP Rep. John James is running for governor, is also likely to be hard fought by both parties.
Minnesota’s 2nd District
Republicans are hoping to make gains in Minnesota this cycle after Donald Trump held Kamala Harris to a 4-point win in last year’s presidential election. That includes the 2nd District held by Craig, who won her 2024 race by 13 points.
The 2nd District race was among the most expensive House races nationally in 2022, although spending was significantly pared back in the district last year. Harris carried the district by 6 points last fall, according to calculations by The Downballot.
Republican strategist Amy Koch, a principal at Momentum Advocacy and a former majority leader of the Minnesota Senate, said Craig had effectively targeted GOP and independent voters in the district in previous elections.
“With her gone, with the right candidate, CD 2 should absolutely be in play,” she said.
Republican Tyler Kistner, who lost a pair of races to Craig in 2020 and 2022, launched another bid for the seat last week. He said in an interview that he heard from an “outpouring of people” from the grassroots as well as members of Congress about running after Craig launched her Senate bid.
Kistner called Craig a “formidable candidate” and said the seat being open was a factor in his decision to enter the race.
“I ran in the district twice before,” he said. “I know exactly what we were up against when you’re looking at a challenger, having to do a compare-and-contrast, compared to running in an open seat and you’re just able to define yourself and the issues.”
Republicans, including Kistner, view Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as a potential liability for Democrats after his stint as Harris’ running mate last year. Walz is currently weighing a decision on whether to seek a third term next year. Republicans are also hoping to make the race for Minnesota’s open Senate seat more competitive than recent statewide campaigns.
“Tim Walz ran for vice president. A lot of negativity came with him doing that,” Kistner said. “And so people forget that if he were to jump in this race again, that’s going to carry a little bit more baggage for the Democratic Party.”
He said he expected national issues, as well as more local issues like school funding, to play a role in the campaign.
More Republicans could join Kistner in the race, with the filing deadline more than a year away. Two Democrats have already launched campaigns to succeed Craig: state Sen. Matt Klein and former state Sen. Matt Little.
New Hampshire’s 1st District
No Republicans have formally entered the race in New Hampshire’s 1st District, which throughout most of the 2010s flipped back and forth between Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and Republican Frank Guinta until Pappas won the seat in 2018. Since then, he’s been reelected three times, most recently by 8 points in 2024.
Republicans are hopeful that a strong candidate could put the district – the swingier of New Hampshire’s two House seats – back on the map this year. Harris carried the 1st District by just 2 points in 2024, according to calculations by The Downballot, while state voters elected Republican Kelly Ayotte as governor by a comparatively dominant 9 points.
Maura Sullivan, a Marine veteran and former Obama administration official, launched a campaign for the seat last month. Several other Democrats are said to be considering bids, including former Portsmouth City Council member Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen; 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tom Sherman; and former journalist Hanna Trudo. Sullivan was the runner-up to Pappas in the 2018 Democratic primary.
Kentucky’s 6th District
Republicans aren’t the only ones hoping to turn an incumbent’s decision to run for Senate into a battleground opportunity. Democrats are eyeing Kentucky’s 6th District as an unlikely pickup possibility.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the district, which Trump carried by 15 points last year, on their “Districts in Play” list for 2026. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican.
Barr, who is looking to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, won a seventh term last year by 26 points. But Democrats point to Gov. Andy Beshear’s 20-point win in the district in his 2023 reelection race as a sign that voters there could be open to their party in a favorable political environment.
“Voters in KY-06 elected Gov. Beshear by double digit margins and it’s clear they want someone looking out for their interests,” said Shelton, the DCCC spokesperson.
Democratic former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson, who flipped a Lexington-area legislative seat in 2018, launched her campaign for the 6th District last week. It’s not clear if she’ll have the Democratic primary lane to herself, but she said entering the race early would give her more time to introduce herself.
The seat being open represents a “unique opportunity,” Stevenson said. But she’ll have to introduce herself to parts of the district she hasn’t previously represented in the legislature, which she said would be one of her biggest challenges in flipping the seat.
Stevenson pointed to the Trump administration’s tariff policy and its potential effects on Kentucky’s bourbon industry and on car manufacturers in the district as something that could push voters to consider a Democrat next year.
“Bourbon is being taken off the shelves around the world, and that’s not only jobs at the distilleries, but that’s cooperages, that’s glass manufacturers,” she said.
She also cited the Republican budget reconciliation bill being considered in the House this week that could affect Medicaid or rural hospitals as another factor that might persuade 6th District voters to support a Democrat.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary for Barr’s seat is still taking shape, with state Rep. Ryan Dotson launching a campaign last month.
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