Vaccine makers Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. are on track to notch billions more in sales than previously expected, as new booster-shot strategies and concerns about the Delta variant push demand, and the companies raise prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.
The Biden administration on Wednesday urged adult Americans who received two doses of messenger RNA vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna to get a third dose eight months later.
Pfizer and partner BioNTech SE Covid-19 vaccine sales are expected to reach $74 billion through next year, excluding Germany and Belgium, 17% more than previous estimates, according to Ronny Gal, a Sanford Bernstein pharmaceuticals analyst.
Meanwhile, the analyst projects Moderna will ring up $35 billion during the span, 25% more sales than previously forecast.
The sums are further evidence the coronavirus pandemic is proving to be a significant moneymaking opportunity for vaccines, a business many drugmakers had abandoned because it was seen as requiring heavy investment while offering limited growth and carrying legal risks.
Some established vaccine makers moved slowly to develop Covid-19 shots, while smaller players embraced unproven technologies like messenger RNA that yielded vaccines in record times and are now poised to remake the vaccines business.
Executives at Pfizer and Moderna have said they expect this coronavirus to be an endemic virus that will drive demand for Covid-19 vaccines for years to come. The companies have increased output since rolling out the shots, and U.S. government officials said there would be sufficient supplies to give boosters to all comers.
Pfizer, which last month raised its estimate of Covid-19 vaccine sales for the year by 30% to $33.5 billion, is now seeking to expand its overall vaccines business with the help of mRNA technology.
The market cap of Moderna, an mRNA pioneer that didn't have an approved product before the pandemic, has risen to $149.7 billion and is now greater than many big pharmaceutical companies. The company has said it anticipates as much as $20 billion in sales from 2021 agreements.
Driving projections of higher sales is increased demand triggered by the spread of the more contagious Delta variant and growing support for giving boosters to counter the strain, analysts say. Price increases are also a big contributor.
Both companies have said they will pursue regulatory clearance for boosters. Pfizer began filing study data with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Monday. Moderna is expected to apply for booster dose authorization next month. Last week, the FDA authorized a third dose of the shots for moderately or severely immunocompromised people.
"The Delta wave did two things for Pfizer and Moderna," Mr. Gal said. "The first is telling every country they will need higher volume because they will need to boost. Second, because everybody is afraid of breakthrough infections, demand focuses on the mRNA vaccines, so they can charge more."
Vaccine makers are charging 15% to 25% more per dose than they did for the first set of shipments, Mr. Gal said.
The U.S. last month reached a new deal with Pfizer and BioNTech to pay $24 per dose in a 200-million-dose deal, up from $19.50 it had paid previously. Moderna, meanwhile, priced the first 100 million doses for the U.S. government at around $15 dollars, and the next 400 million shots were $16.50 per dose, according to Moderna.
The companies also increased prices for the European Union. Pfizer raised prices to $23 per dose for the EU, up from $18 per dose, while Moderna upped them to $25.50 per dose from $22.60 per dose, according to the Financial Times. Both the companies and the EU declined to comment on the new prices.
Botswana recently disclosed it is paying Moderna $29 per dose. Colombia is paying Moderna around $30 per dose, according to its government.
Pfizer said it varies the price of doses based on the ability of governments to pay and that it projects revenues associated with its vaccine may be adjusted in the future as additional contracts are signed.
"High and middle-income countries pay more than low-income countries, but at a value that is significantly discounted from our normal benchmarks, during the pandemic. Low and lower middle-income countries pay a not-for-profit price," Pfizer said in a statement.
Moderna said its prices also vary by a country's income, and it offers discounts depending on the volume of vaccines purchased. For high-income countries outside of the U.S., prices per dose start at $32 to $37, Chief Financial Officer David Meline told investors and analysts earlier this month.
He said the pricing framework for 2022 is "very consistent with that framework we've had in 2021."
Both Moderna and Pfizer have said they intend to raise prices after the pandemic is over.
The third authorized vaccine in the U.S., from Johnson & Johnson, isn't on track to beat sales projections as its messenger RNA competitors are. Use of the shot dropped after U.S. health authorities temporarily paused roll-out of the shots to investigate reports of a rare blood-clotting condition.
The single dose shot is a viral vector vaccine, a technology also employed by the two-dose AstraZeneca PLC vaccine that isn't yet authorized for use in the U.S.
Mr. Gal projects J&J will make $1 billion on vaccine sales through 2022, while AstraZeneca will make $7.5 billion through 2022. J&J said it hasn't yet given guidance on its 2022 vaccine sales, and AstraZeneca said the company is focused on delivering "broad and equitable access" to vaccines and will explore commercial opportunities when the pandemic is over.
Gabriele Steinhauser and Kejal Vyas contributed to this article.
