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Hydrogen stocks have come roaring back into the spotlight, driven by a renewed wave of optimism following the recent passage of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The sweeping legislation has injected fresh enthusiasm into the hydrogen industry by extending crucial tax incentives, removing controversial draft restrictions, and providing clarity for long-term investments in clean energy projects. That prompted a fresh round of bullish analyst sentiment that some investors believe could mark a turning point.
At the center of this renewed enthusiasm is Plug Power (PLUG), a company that has long been viewed as a potential leader in the hydrogen economy. Still, significant questions linger about Plug’s fundamentals. The company continues to grapple with deeply negative gross margins, substantial cash burn, and uncertainty around its long-term liquidity position. With PLUG shares rallying sharply in recent weeks, the question has come back into focus: Is Plug Power finally ready to deliver on its promise — or is this just another false dawn?
In this article, we’ll dig into why analysts have become more bullish on the hydrogen industry, examine Plug’s financial position in greater depth, and assess whether the current optimism warrants buying PLUG stock today.
About Plug Power Stock
With a market cap of $2.02 billion, Plug Power (PLUG) is a notable player in the green hydrogen industry, specializing in hydrogen fuel cell technologies. The company is building a comprehensive green hydrogen ecosystem, spanning production, storage, delivery, and energy generation, to support its customers’ business objectives and contribute to economy-wide decarbonization. Its offerings include the GenDrive fuel cell system for material handling vehicles such as forklifts, GenSure stationary fuel cells for grid support, and ProGen fuel cell engines designed for a range of applications. It also offers GenFuel, a comprehensive solution for hydrogen production, storage, and dispensing.
Shares of the hydrogen fuel cell product solutions provider have surged 72.5% over the past month, fueled by favorable changes to Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill for the hydrogen industry, along with company-specific news like the recent extension of a strategic hydrogen supply deal with a major U.S.-based industrial gas firm. However, PLUG stock is still down 10% year-to-date.
Analysts Sweeten on Hydrogen as Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Brings Long-Awaited Policy Clarity
On July 7, Plug Power CEO Andy Marsh told Wall Street analysts during a conference call that the hydrogen fuel cell company stands to benefit significantly from U.S. President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act. The bill extends two key tax credits that Plug Power and its customers rely on, which were set to expire under the earlier version of the legislation. Marsh stated that the bill’s passage, signed into law on July 4, represents “one of the most meaningful policy wins for Plug and really for the entire hydrogen fuel cell sector in the last several years.”
One of the tax incentives provides a 30% credit on all fuel cell purchases. Notably, the revised law eliminates the “zero-emissions” requirement, foreign content restrictions, and prevailing wage or apprenticeship conditions, significantly broadening access to the credit. “This clarity allows us to make long-term decisions with confidence. It allows our partners and customers to do the same,” Marsh said.
Plug also applauded the extension of the hydrogen production tax credit. This tax credit provides producers up to $3 per kilogram to help make this fuel source competitive with traditional fuels. With that, Plug gained greater flexibility to align its plant construction timeline with actual market demand. “We can build smart, we can build strategically,” Marsh said.
With the passage of the OBBB Act, the 30% fuel cell tax credit has been extended through 2032, and the green hydrogen tax credit will now apply to projects initiated before 2028, rather than 2026, giving Plug more time to capitalize on these incentives as it expands its network of green hydrogen plants nationwide. “We are in a much better place today than we were a year ago,” Marsh told analysts.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan noted that the policy clarity provided by the OBBBA should eliminate a longstanding “overhang for the broader hydrogen complex,” which had been hindered for years by shifting regulatory guidelines. The firm also pointed out that Plug anticipates receiving credits for its current production in Georgia and potentially in Louisiana, while also benefiting from “more flexibility around when it deploys capital” instead of being pressured by earlier eligibility deadlines. In addition, the firm told investors in a research note that the latest policy changes could allow certain green hydrogen projects in the U.S. to reach a final investment decision that “would have otherwise been canceled without the credit given significantly higher production costs than blue/grey hydrogen.”
Another key point is that JPMorgan noted the outlook for Plug’s previously delayed Department of Energy loan has improved, after the company had blamed the delay on tax credit uncertainty during JPMorgan’s Energy Conference in late June. To recap, in early January, Plug secured a nearly $1.7 billion loan guarantee from the DOE to support six zero- and low-carbon hydrogen production projects, but the Trump administration has since placed the loan under review. In my previous articles on PLUG, I highlighted the importance of the loan, as it could allow the company to move forward with its plan to build a nationwide network of green hydrogen plants, positioning it to fully capitalize on the extended hydrogen production tax credit.
Overall, JPMorgan sees the bill as a positive development for Plug but notes that the extent of unlocked demand and the company’s ability to improve margins and reduce cash burn remain uncertain. The firm maintained its “Neutral” rating on PLUG stock after the management’s conference call with analysts. Other firms seem more optimistic about PLUG’s outlook, with Roth Capital and H.C. Wainwright both reaffirming their “Buy” ratings.
Ball Now on Plug’s Side
As JPMorgan analysts pointed out, while the OBBBA offers some relief to Plug and the overall hydrogen industry, the company still faces challenges in its core operations, including deeply negative margins and massive cash burn. With that, let’s take a closer look at the company’s latest quarterly results and dive deeper into key points.
In the first quarter of 2025, Plug’s sales grew 11.1% year-over-year to $133.7 million, fueled by higher electrolyzer shipments, steady demand in material handling, and continued deployments across its cryogenic platform. However, the company continues to post deeply negative gross margins, largely due to the structure of its fuel contracts. In Q1, PLUG posted a gross margin loss of -55%. Still, this marked an improvement from -132% in the same quarter a year ago. We also recently received some positive news on the margins front. On July 9, Plug announced a new multi-year enhanced supply agreement with a major U.S.-based industrial gas company and longtime hydrogen partner. The agreement extends the existing strategic partnership between the companies through 2030, ensuring a stable hydrogen supply for Plug’s expanding applications business while substantially lowering the cost structure and improving cash flows. During the Q1 earnings call, management said they aim to achieve break-even gross margins by year-end, so it will be interesting to see in the Q2 update whether that timeline has been moved up.
Another key point that caught my attention is expenses. While everything looked great with research and development costs in Q1, thanks to the company’s 2025 Restructuring Plan, the same cannot be said for SG&A expenses. They rose slightly year-over-year to $80.8 million, an uncomfortably high figure for a company grappling with negative gross margins and significant losses. As a result, Plug’s net loss stood at $196.9 million, or $0.21 per share.
Finally, Plug continues to burn a massive amount of cash, and its liquidity outlook beyond 2025 remains uncertain. The company ended Q1 with just $295.8 million in unrestricted cash but later secured a costly debt facility of up to $525 million from its existing lender, Yorkville Advisors. What I really don’t like is the first-quarter cash burn of $152.1 million, especially given that management had already launched a $200 million cost-saving program.
Looking ahead, management forecasts Q2 revenue to range between $140 million and $180 million. At the midpoint, Plug’s first-half sales would come in just under $300 million, well below the over-$400 million estimate projected at the end of 2024. Analysts currently forecast Plug’s FY25 revenue at $733.25 million, reflecting a modest 16.61% year-over-year increase, while its net loss is expected to narrow by 78.35% year-over-year to $0.58 per share.
What Do Analysts Expect for PLUG Stock?
Despite the recent wave of optimism surrounding the hydrogen industry, analysts haven’t changed their view on Plug stock, which continues to carry a consensus “Hold” rating — unchanged from one, two, and three months ago. Of the 23 analysts covering the stock, five rate it a “Strong Buy,” 13 recommend holding, and the other five have issued a “Strong Sell” rating. Still, PLUG’s average price target of $4.08 implies massive upside potential of 116% from current levels.
The Bottom Line on PLUG Stock
Putting it all together, I currently view PLUG stock as a “Hold.” The stock moved exactly as I expected in my previous article, reaching the $1.80–$2.00 range, where I believe the main price action will occur. The stock now faces a strong multi-year resistance level at $2.00, which I don’t expect it to break through unless the company delivers some fundamental improvements. For this reason, I’ll be closely watching the company’s Q2 report, scheduled for early August, with a particular focus on improvements in margins and cash burn.
