Arizona’s state legislative elections this year are shaping up to be generally less competitive than the average from 2010 to 2024. Voters will see below-average open seats, contested primaries, and contested incumbents.
Twenty-four seats are open in Arizona’s state legislative elections this year, meaning no incumbents filed. That is less than the average of 29 since 2010 and means newcomers are guaranteed 27% of the legislature next year.
Twenty-five incumbents face primary contests in Arizona’s state legislative elections this year, 38% of the 66 incumbents running, and the fewest since 2016.
Ten of the contested incumbents are Democrats, and 15 are Republicans. For Democrats, that is down 29% from 14 in 2024. Contested Republican incumbents are down 17% from 18 in 2024.
Arizona has 27 contested state legislative primaries this year, down from 33 in 2024. The average number of contested primaries in Arizona each cycle from 2010 to 2024 was 32.
Twelve of this year’s primaries are for Democrats, down 7% from 13 last cycle, and 15 are for Republicans, down 25% from 20 last cycle.
In total, 192 major party candidates filed to run—96 Democrats and 96 Republicans. All 60 House seats and all 30 Senate seats are up for election.
Arizona has had a divided government since 2023, when Gov. Katie Hobbs assumed office. Republicans currently have a 33-27 majority in the House and a 17-13 majority in the Senate.
Arizona's state legislative primaries are scheduled for July 21.
