Andy Burnham represents Labour’s best hope of keeping Nigel Farage out of No 10, Britain’s leading pollster has warned, as well as asserting that Sir Keir Starmer “doesn’t have the skill set for Downing Street”.
In a scathing assessment, Professor Sir John Curtice accused the prime minister of not having a vision for the country and said he does not believe Sir Keir can “learn to be a politician” in the new year.
The prime minister insisted on Sunday that he will still be in post next year and warned leadership rivals that any moves to oust him would be a “gift” to Mr Farage and Reform UK.
But Sir John told The Independent he believes that only Greater Manchester mayor Mr Burnham has the support within the Labour Party, and appeal to the wider electorate, to be an effective replacement for the beleaguered prime minister, whose future appears increasingly uncertain.
However, he noted that the route back into Westminster is “very difficult” for Mr Burnham, because he would need to be elected as an MP.
“Andy Burnham is probably still the best possibility, but there are many barriers in his way,” said Sir John.
“If you look at his popularity, both within and outside the Labour Party, his popularity is clearly more extensive than any of the other candidates.”
While Mr Burnham recently dismissed claims that he is planning a comeback to Westminster, a YouGov poll last month showed he was the clear frontrunner among the candidates tipped to succeed Sir Keir, ahead of former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and health secretary Wes Streeting.
There has been widespread speculation in recent weeks that both Ms Rayner and Mr Streeting have been preparing the ground for leadership bids, but Sir John was sceptical about their chances.
“Wes Streeting is not that popular in the party, although he’s got a good backstory, but he is bearing the cross of being health secretary,” he said.
“He has, rather controversially, decided to reorganise the administrative delivery of health in England in the middle of a crisis. I think one can probably say that his ability to succeed as a departmental minister has yet to be proven.”
But Sir John added: “He's undoubtedly a good communicator, and certainly has a much better political feel than Starmer.”
Turning to Ms Rayner, who is a popular choice on the left of the party and has been tipped for a cabinet return, he raised questions over whether she could face similar problems to Sir Keir.
“Angela Rayner is clearly popular within her party but tends to be divisive within the electorate,” he warned.
“What we don't know is, does she have a vision? She’s always been deputy to Starmer, and Starmer doesn’t have a vision.
“Could Rayner craft a vision? And does she have the skill set for 10 Downing Street? We know Starmer doesn’t, but does she?”
Despite recent speculation that home secretary Shabana Mahmood was eyeing the top job, particularly after she was described as “brilliant” and “impressive” by Sir Tony Blair, Sir John was not convinced she would be a strong contender.
“I mean, sections of the Labour Party will be currently swallowing her social conservatism as home secretary, but in leadership consideration it’s different,” he said.
Noting that she fared badly on Labour List surveys of party members, he added: “I think she’s clearly talented, but whether or not she could appeal to the Labour Party electorate is debatable.”
Looking ahead to more political turbulence in 2026, Sir John added: “I would not be surprised if there had not been at least one significant change of leadership by this time next year.”
Both Sir Keir and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch have seen their popularity plummet this year, and the May elections could be the last straw for disgruntled MPs hoping to retain their seats at the next general election.
Sir John said: “The problem Labour face is they lose votes to the Greens, and because Reform is squeezing the Tory vote and taking some votes off Labour, it’s Reform that would benefit in terms of seats.”
The Independent has asked for a comment from Mr Burnham.
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