All season long, I have been pointing out Ohio State’s status in analytics ratings like ESPN’s FPI and SP+. I have been saying not to worry about low preseason and early-season ratings, because they had a very reasonable explanation.
These analytics ratings are forward-looking. Basically, they don’t care what a team has done–they want to know what it’s expected to do. And with a new coach and new quarterback, expectations of Ohio State were mixed. There was definitely the possibility of the Buckeyes being a top team, but other possibilities existed as well.
As the season has gone on and Ohio State has proven the negative possibilities wrong, they have steadily risen in FPI’s ratings. That was expected. Now, though, there’s a new development.
The advanced analytics ratings don’t only think that Ohio State is good. They think the Buckeyes are really good.
This week, Ohio State moved up to No. 3 in FPI. The Buckeyes are still 1.8 expected points per game behind No. 2 Clemson, but they are 1.3 points clear of No. 4 Georgia and 5.0 points ahead of No. 6 Oklahoma.
In SP+, the numbers look even better for Ohio State. Bill Connelly’s respected ratings have the Buckeyes up at No. 2, at 2.5 expected points per game behind Alabama. Ohio State is 1.8 points ahead of Clemson and 3.6 points ahead of Georgia in these.
The advanced analytics clearly like what Ohio State has shown on the field in its four games. There’s only one question left now. Is Ohio State’s rating still being held back by the preseason uncertainty? If the answer to that question is yes, then the Buckeyes may yet still have more room to rise.
