Analysts say the Trump administration's decision to seize oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude could place meaningful pressure on Nicolás Maduro by targeting the regime's main source of revenue, potentially forcing significant concessions while stopping short of guaranteeing regime change.
In recent days, the United States has seized two oil tankers linked to Venezuelan exports. The moves came after President Donald Trump announced what he called a "TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE" of sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil. Trump has also said Washington will seek compensation for U.S. assets nationalized by Caracas in past decades, framing the campaign as a response to what he described as the theft of American property.
Several Venezuela specialists consulted by The Atlantic in a new sprawling report argue the focus on oil exports marks a shift from earlier measures that failed to directly threaten Maduro's hold on power. Juan Gonzalez, a former National Security Council adviser on Latin America under President Joe Biden, said the move strikes at "the single biggest source of revenue that has propped up Maduro's government since 2013."
"If the goal is to force concessions, he said, "this is a really smart move."
Jason Marczak, a Latin America expert at the Atlantic Council, said stricter enforcement of sanctions could sever the "financial lifelines that keep Maduro in power." Others cautioned, however, that Venezuela has repeatedly adapted to sanctions. Francisco Mora, a former U.S. defense official, said raising the cost of exporting oil "hurts the regime," but added, "it is not clear how much of an impact it will have."
U.S. officials say the seizures are legally grounded in existing sanctions, distinguishing them from earlier airstrikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats. Still, analysts warn the measures carry risks. Oil revenue underpins both the Venezuelan state and the broader economy, raising the possibility of worsening humanitarian conditions and increased migration. Gonzalez said sustaining a full embargo would be difficult "given the humanitarian and migration implications."
The pressure campaign has already had ripple effects. Russian-linked oil company Cyprus Limited recently announced it would exit Venezuela, citing the combined impact of international sanctions and financial restrictions. The company said it faced a "structural incapacity" to continue operations, adding to signs of strain in the energy sector.
Caracas has condemned the tanker seizures as "theft" and "international piracy" and has requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.
Experts broadly agree the seizures could inflict economic damage without necessarily toppling the government. "That," said analyst Geoff Ramsey, "is not necessarily a death blow."
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