A new analysis reveals that Donald Trump’s current tariff plans could impose a direct cost of $82.3 billion on a crucial segment of US employers, a burden that may force businesses to resort to price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes, or reduced profit margins. The study by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to quantify the direct financial impact of import taxes on companies with annual revenues ranging from $10 million to $1 billion, a category that includes roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers.
This category of businesses is particularly reliant on imports from countries such as China, India, and Thailand. The retail and wholesale sectors are identified as especially vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.
The findings directly challenge Mr. Trump’s assertions that foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of these tariffs, instead indicating that the financial burden falls squarely on US companies that depend on imports. While the tariffs implemented under Mr. Trump have not yet triggered widespread inflation, larger corporations like Amazon, Costco, Walmart, and Williams-Sonoma have reportedly delayed the full impact by accumulating inventories before the taxes took effect.
The analysis emerges just ahead of a July 9 deadline set by Mr. Trump for formally establishing tariff rates across dozens of countries. This deadline was introduced after financial markets reacted negatively to his initial tariff announcements in April, prompting a 90-day negotiating period during which most imports faced a 10 per cent baseline tariff. Higher rates apply to goods from China, Mexico, and Canada, alongside separate 50 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium. Had the initial April 2 tariffs remained in place, the companies examined in the JPMorganChase Institute analysis would have faced a significantly higher direct cost of $187.6 billion. Under the current rates, the $82.3 billion would be equivalent on average to $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll.
When questioned about the progress of trade talks, Mr. Trump simply stated on Tuesday: "Everything’s going well." The president has indicated his intention to set tariff rates, citing the logistical complexities of negotiating with numerous nations. As the 90-day period concludes, only the United Kingdom has formalised a trade framework with the Trump administration, though Mr. Trump announced a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday, with details pending. India has also signalled it is nearing a trade agreement. The outlook for tariffs remains highly uncertain, exemplified by Mr. Trump’s halting and then restarting negotiations with Canada, and his recent threat of more tariffs on Japan unless it increases rice purchases from the US.
A growing body of evidence suggests that further inflation could emerge. Investment bank Goldman Sachs projects that companies will pass on 60 per cent of their tariff costs to consumers. Similarly, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s survey of businesses’ inflation expectations indicates that companies could, on average, pass on roughly half their costs from a 10 per cent or 25 per cent tariff without diminishing consumer demand. The JPMorganChase Institute’s findings also suggest that while tariffs might strengthen the role of some domestic manufacturers as goods suppliers, wholesalers and retailers, operating on already thin profit margins, may be compelled to pass tariff costs directly to their customers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented on the trade talks in a Tuesday interview, asserting that the concessions achieved have impressed career officials across various agencies. "People who have been at Treasury, at Commerce, at USTR for 20 years are saying that these are deals like they’ve never seen before," Mr. Bessent told Fox News Channel’s "Fox & Friends." The treasury secretary added that the Trump administration plans to discuss the specifics of trade deals next week, prioritising a multitrillion-dollar tax cuts package recently passed by the Republican majority in the Senate, the costs of which Mr. Trump hopes to offset with tariff revenues.
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