THERE’S day-to-day urgent trivia, especially these days, but then there are bigger, sometimes slower, movements that are less apparent but we know are there.
The news that there is overwhelming support among folks in five key EU members for an independent Scotland joining the bloc comes as no surprise – I’ve been having conversations with their representatives and diplomats for years.
YouGov polled 2000 folks in Germany, and 1000 in Denmark, Spain, Italy and France asking: “If Scotland voted for independence from the rest of the UK and asked to join the European Union, would you support or oppose allowing it to do so?”
In Denmark, 75% support, 6% oppose; Germany, 68%/10%; Spain, 65%/13%; Italy, 64%/11%, and France, 63%/13%.
I include the “oppose” figures because it really is a slam dunk across all five countries: if people aren’t actively in favour there are plenty don’t know/don’t cares, and little actual opposition.
If anything, I’d love to see the numbers for all EU states and suspect they’d be similar, with potential Irish, Polish and other Scandinavian figures likely to be particularly intriguing.
So we should be wary of the breathless “we’re Scots, everyone loves us!” attitude you’ll find at the panglossian end of the Yes spectrum. There will be a serious negotiation and they’ll argue hard for their interests (as indeed will we), but the upshot is clear – they want us in.
The poll (and I really would urge reading it in full) also asked the question about the UK rejoining, and the numbers were less enthusiastic, but still remarkably positive given the last few years of nonsense, ranging from 51% in Italy to 53% in France, 60% in Spain and 63% in Germany.
But, opposition was higher as were don’t knows/don’t cares.
A salutary note for the UK’s remainiacs, though – the EU deal you left isn’t the one you’ll get back.
The UK had the financial rebate on the EU budget, opt-outs on passport-free travel, joining the euro and some aspects of judicial co-operation, and when asked about the UK joining but keeping them, all states bar Denmark (which has a couple of opt-outs too) were opposed.
The UK, if it rejoins, will need to get over itself and join as a full, normal member.
That causes no problems for Scotland given there are several dozen reasons why, like Ireland, we wouldn’t want the opt-outs anyway (except for Schengen passport-free travel given, like Ireland, we only have one land border and let’s assume the UK does not join any time soon).
Even more salutary, the poll also asked 2000 or so UK folks whether they were in favour of rejoining, and 57% think they should keep the opt outs.
Precisely the exceptionalist attitude that got the UK into this mess. So, for Scotland, game on.
The last couple of weeks also showed other reasons why joining is urgent.
The EU Commission president Dr Ursula von der Leyen came to Scotland to meet with visiting US president Donald Trump and agreed – or at least agreed in general terms yet to actually be agreed – a trade pact with the US.
Where unease over the potential impact of the handshake has been voiced in various member state capitals, it is clear that the EU acting with one voice was taken seriously, to the extent the current US administration takes anything seriously.
But more on that as the actual details emerge, closer to home, the first draft of the catchily named Multiannual Financial Framework was unveiled, the EU budget for 2028-2034.
At €1.78 trillion (yes, trillion), it is a big old number but only 1.26% of the EU’s Gross National Income.
This is still a significant increase, and while this is only the EU Commission’s first proposal and it will be hotly debated by the member states and EU Parliament, it shows a more assertive EU Commission, and more spending on an EU level.
It was only released late last Tuesday so a lot of analysis will be done on the coming weeks, but a few things are clear.
There will be a significant increase in EU defence, both in procuring new kit and in defence research and development spending. Scotland’s universities and defence companies risk being excluded.
The budget for renewables technology, research and the move to the just transition is in for significant increases – and again, our companies and researchers risk being left out – as well as on the infrastructure spending where Scotland has an urgent need for better grid connections to sell our abundant clean green energy.
Agriculture and European food production continue to be supported, with €291 billion being ring-fenced for direct payments to farmers as part of a €387bn budget for other supports.
NOT many Scots farmers voted for Brexit, but even so, have endured the triple whammy of having lost subsidy and access to the single market as well as being on the chopping block for any future UK trade deals, there’s plenty of good news for Scots farmers in joining the EU.
Cohesion policy – the EU structural funds Scotland made such good use of in building infrastructure and training – take a hit, with a smaller budget and less prominence.
But it’s still €392bn and non-members won’t get buttons from it.
The EU is moving on apace in a fast-changing world, and where the UK Government has made some steps in achieving a better mood music, there’s no substitute for actual membership.
I would welcome the UK getting serious about rejoining the EU, but in my heart of hearts, I just can’t see it because too many UK politicians are running scared of populists.
Scotland, however, has it all to play for.
