We’re past the midway point of the season. The playoff picture is starting to take shape. You have questions. I have answers.
Kansas City Chiefs
From Aaron Driskell (@A_a_ron_D): Who wins the AFC West and why?
The Chiefs, Aaron.
Maybe it’s blind faith in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but this is how I operated with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick over the years. I really don’t care that much about them losing a regular-season game or two—and by the way, their four losses this year came by a total of 19 points. Meanwhile, their wins have come by 13, 17, 13, 31 and 21 points.
They travel to Denver on Sunday and then face the Colts. So this isn’t going to be easy.
However, they play the Broncos twice, and the Chargers once, and I’d say they’re more complete than either of those teams. They don’t have the devastating season-ending injuries that the Chargers have at a key spot (tackle, in this case). And they don’t have a problem area like the Broncos’ struggling passing game.
So, I’ll take the Chiefs with 11 wins, capturing the division on tiebreakers, and returning to the conference title game, which would be their eighth in a row.
Indianapolis Colts
From Nathan (@ColtsguyNate): Should Colts fans be worried about Daniel Jones showing signs of regression?
Nathan, I wouldn’t look at it that way.
What’s alarming about the past couple of weeks is the way the offensive line seemed to crater in spots. The Steelers’ defensive front choked the Colts out, holding Jonathan Taylor to 45 rushing yards, and sacking Jones five times, creating pressure that led to three interceptions. Last week, Indy was able to get its run game going again—and yet the line still yielded seven sacks to a super-aggressive Falcons front.
So no, Daniel Jones hasn’t been great over the past couple of weeks. But I don’t think the concern is him so much as it is the team’s ability to play the game on its terms—from ahead, and in favorable down-and-distance situations. If you can slow Taylor on early downs, you have a shot to make Jones look pedestrian by hitting him. Which, honestly, is how it is with most quarterbacks.
We’ll see what Indy can do to avoid those situations in the future.
Coaching carousel
From Ronnie (@Tray4o): Could you see a current college coach such as Marcus Freeman or Lane Kiffin get linked to the Giants head coach job?
From Henry Matthews (@henrymHuss26H): Do you think any NFL GM/owners will look at the college coaches for their head coach openings?
Ronnie, I like both guys. Lane Kiffin’s been able to meld some old-school West Coast principles with the modern spread, and it’d be intriguing to see how that product looks in the NFL. His personality is quirky and different, but if you can deal with that, there’d be a lot of upside. And I’ve been a fan of Marcus Freeman since he was a teenager—the battleship commander trait he carries has been evident since he was a player.
How each would build out a staff and translate their schematics is, of course, a question that any coach going from college to the pros would face. But I like both. There are a few others that are interesting as well.
• Washington coach Jedd Fisch took Arizona from 1–11 in 2021 to 10–3 in ’23, and has the Huskies at 6–3 this year after going 6–7 in his first season in Seattle. He has a heavy NFL background, so the transition to the pros would likely be easier for him than most. He spent 13 seasons in the pros, rising to the coordinator level with Jacksonville a decade ago, and all of his recent NFL experience has been around quarterbacks.
• Texas coach Steve Sarkisian has a similar background to Kiffin—the two came up together under Pete Carroll at USC. Sarkisian had two stints in the NFL, most recently replacing Kyle Shanahan as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator after Shanahan took the 49ers’ job, and has been a head coach at three college football powerhouses. He’s developed a handful of first-round quarterbacks at the college level, and NFL teams have studied his systems.
• Iowa State coach Matt Campbell has long had the “Brad Stevens” thing for NFL teams intrigued by him—the guy who has consistently done more with less at the college level. The Lions had a very real interest in hiring him in 2021, with fellow Canton, Ohio native Chris Spielman spearheading that effort. The former college teammate of Nick Sirianni has also been on the radar of other teams and has shown interest in going pro in the past.
• I’m going to throw Indiana’s Curt Cignetti on here, too—because what he’s done in Bloomington is impossible to ignore, and NFL folks are interested in what he’s been able to accomplish. He’s 64 years old and has no experience in the league. But his brother Frank was a long-time NFL assistant, and he was on the ground floor in building a dynasty with Nick Saban at Alabama, which was perhaps the most pro-like program in college football.
• Eventually, I do think Ryan Day will leave my alma mater and try his hand at being a head coach in the NFL. I hope it’s not for a while.
After that, you have some potential moonshots like Deion Sanders and Saban. I don’t think NFL teams are lining up to hire college coaches right now. However, the dearth of obvious candidates this year could push teams that way.
Buffalo Bills
From Phil Martello (@Martello16): Is anyone in Buffalo on the hot seat with another postseason failure/missed playoff?
Phil, absolutely not coming into the season. I love the infrastructure they’ve built there, and think there’s so much good that’s been done. GM Brandon Beane has been a model for new GMs to follow, and coach Sean McDermott drove a reimagination of a franchise that spent nearly two decades in the dumps after the halcyon days of the 1990s.
McDermott and Beane are 140–92 together, having made the playoffs seven times in their eight years before this one, riding a streak of five consecutive AFC East titles. That, in itself, is plenty to give the current regime leeway if they stumble, and they’ve earned that.
At the same time, I can understand if some people are wondering if they’ve reached the point the Buccaneers did with Tony Dungy a generation ago. Dungy rebuilt what had been a moribund franchise in Tampa, the sport’s doormat. In short order, he made the operation respectable, then turned the Bucs into a perennial contender. After a 14-year playoff drought, the Bucs made it to the postseason in four of five seasons from 1997 to 2001.
But at the end of that run, with a stocked coaching staff and a loaded roster, ownership got restless, concerned that they wouldn’t ever get over the hump with a crew of Hall of Famers on defense. So they flirted with Bill Parcells, and then traded for Jon Gruden, and won a Super Bowl in Gruden’s first year. To be clear, I don’t think the Bills’ ownership is there on McDermott. However, I also know that having a player like Josh Allen could create urgency, generating a scenario similar to the one in Tampa.
From Steve Mariglia (@SteveMariglia): Do you have faith the Bills will get things turned around in the passing game?
Steve, that really rides on health. Can Buffalo have Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and James Cook firing on all cylinders come December and January? If so, Allen and the passing game will be fine.
I know why you’d see the sky as falling after Sunday. It isn't yet. The Bills played really well in the two games leading up to the debacle against the Dolphins.
Cleveland Browns
From Ray M. McCarron (@MccarronRay): What do you think the Browns QB plans are for the rest of the season? How do the Browns coaches/management look at Gabriel, the prospect of Sanders or Watson playing this year?
Ray, I do think, at some point, they’ll want to get a look at Shedeur Sanders, so long as Sanders gets to the point where his teammates believe in him running the offense. I can also see a scenario where Deshaun Watson gets a look, and I wouldn’t be against it if I were a Browns fan. They owe the guy $46 million next year regardless, so it’d make sense to see where he’s at coming off his injury, and whether or not he’s a more viable answer than Dillon Gabriel or Sanders would be in 2026.
Ultimately, though, my educated guess is that the 2026 quarterback is not currently on the roster, barring Watson being a revelation whenever he returns.
Pittsburgh Steelers
From Salvadore (@SalvadoreYoga): If the Steelers fail to win a playoff game this year, will they bring Aaron Rodgers back, and how could they let Mike Tomlin draft another QB next April after his Kenny Pickett fiasco?
Salvadore, the Steelers would be open to Aaron Rodgers returning in 2026. However, I’m just not sure Rodgers himself will want to play. In that scenario, Rodgers becomes the bridge quarterback, and Pittsburgh would look for a player in the draft. If he’s willing, that would also give Pittsburgh the flexibility not to sell out for one if there isn’t a quarterback there that the Steelers deem worth building around.
Remember, the feeling of needing a quarterback is part of what drove the reach on Kenny Pickett in 2022.
Miami Dolphins
From Darren Boyd (@DarrenBoyd13): Can the Dolphins turn it around after the huge Bills win?
Darren, they could go on a little run here. Guys are playing for their jobs now, and that intensity was palpable last Sunday. Mike McDaniel hasn’t lost the team. And for those reasons, I could see them clipping a wounded Commanders team in Madrid on Sunday morning. Then, after the bye, Miami has the Saints and Jets, and those are winnable games. Win all three and you’re 6–7 and at least interesting in December.
Denver Broncos
From Colby Carroll (@c_car91): Is Bo Nix the long-term solution at quarterback in Denver?
I know Sean Payton loves Bo Nix. I also bet, deep down, he is happy he doesn’t have to make that decision yet. The first real indicators about the Broncos’ long-term intentions with Nix will come after 2026, when he’ll be eligible for a second contract for the first time, and Denver will have to decide on his fifth-year option.
To be clear, I really don’t know which way they’ll go on those calls, which illustrates where I think the Broncos are with him right now.
Coaching hot seat
From Michael (@MBison705): We've seen two in-season HC firings now that the Giants have fired Daboll. Based on your knowledge of ownership/front office dynamics, what pushes an organization to make an in-season move as opposed to waiting until Black Monday if a team is practically out of contention?
A couple of things can, Michael. There may be a desire to give someone on the staff a real audition before the end of the season. Another reason could be that the locker room has become toxic, which can hinder the development of young players. A third would be a lack of overall progress, with a desire to jumpstart things. And then there’s the scenario where the owner is mad—either because of how he’s perceived, or because apathy leads to fewer $15 beers being sold, or because he’s just at odds with the coach.
TV schedule
From Darwin Kastle (@DarwinKastle): Any chance of getting a second bye week to increase the length of the season? Another week of FF, red zone, prime time games, etc? It would be a way to stretch the season with even less danger to players.
Darwin, the networks are actually the ones that push back hardest on this. With an already diluted Sunday afternoon product (bastardized by holiday, international windows and weeknight games), the networks aren’t much interested in stretching things out further. Adding a second bye week and 18th game would also, for what it’s worth, push the Super Bowl past President’s Day weekend, which will be a factor.
That said, new TV deals will be negotiated soon, so the dynamics could well change.
Carolina Panthers
From Eric Goodman (@erictrex94): Bryce Young has looked like he has regressed since the end of last year, he is just not doing things an NFL QB should be doing(sub 200 yards outside of one game). Is it time for the panthers to start looking elsewhere after this season?
Right now, my guess is they will pick up his fifth-year option for 2027 at $26.53 million. But that’s because it’s relatively affordable. And it’s certainly possible they choose not to do that. We’ll see as the rest of the season will be part of that evaluation.
More NFL on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Albert Breer’s Mailbag: Why the Chiefs Are Still AFC West Favorites .
