Brisbane have been here before. The reigning premiers are in their seventh consecutive AFL finals series and twice in that stretch have faced a straight-sets exit. The concern will be that on both of those occasions, in 2019 and 2021, the Lions were unable to lift themselves from a qualifying final defeat and were bundled out at the semi-final stage.
The Lions have grown up since then to become an AFL heavyweight and after four straight finals victories last year were finally rewarded with a premiership. Brisbane must now stare down a new challenger to their crown as Gold Coast take their club-first finals campaign into a second week after a rousing elimination final win.
The Suns have been chipping away at the older team in Queensland since they joined the competition in 2011. After 14 years of mostly failure, they could only have dreamed of having opportunity to knock the Lions off their perch in their own debut finals series. A Brisbane win has often been all but a formality in the Q-Clash, but a Gold Coast triumph as the stakes rise might just herald a changing of the guard.
Where the game will be won – and lost
Brisbane were given a reality check by Geelong as they were unable to play their preferred kick-mark, controlled-possession game while they were almost blown away in the first half. The Lions were flattered by the 38-point final margin and their hopes of bouncing back are not helped by Lachie Neale being sidelined for the rest of the season with a calf injury. The dual Brownlow medallist is hard to replace, but the Lions have the midfield depth to cover his absence and match the Suns’ powerful onball brigade.
The Lions lead the competition for stoppage clearance differential but will need to tidy up their work at centre bounces where the Suns have been the best of all the finalists. They have built up a formidable record against the Suns with 12 wins in their past 14 meetings though their most recent Q-Clash ended in their heaviest defeat to their rivals as they were soundly beaten in the engine room. The Lions have faced this same scenario twice in the past six seasons and been bundled out of finals both times but can expect to now have the experience to avoid another painful straight-sets exit.
Gold Coast quickly learned what finals are all about when building and giving up a handy lead to Fremantle, then pulling off an all-time classic victory. With a first final behind them, the stakes only rise higher as the Suns face a derby that will be the biggest game yet for the AFL in Queensland. They pulled off the win over the Dockers by the barest of margins, even with spearhead Ben King held goalless for the first time this year. The Suns showed that they have a mix of medium-sized forwards to trouble any defence and make the most of them leading all the finalists for inside-50 differential this year.
The Suns have built up a strength with their onball brigade led by first-year captain Noah Anderson and clearance-machine Matt Rowell. The duo are the key to the Suns matching the reigning premiers for clearance differential as the equal-No 2 teams across the season, and were just as influential when they laid down a marker with a rousing victory over the Lions in round 20. It is easy to think that Gold Coast are playing with house money from here but they will surely relish the opportunity to knock out their rivals and perhaps signal a changing of the guard in the state.
Game-shapers
Hugh McCluggage finally earned a maiden All-Australian blazer last week but would not be satisfied with his performance a few days later against the Cats. The gun midfielder can win the ball at the coalface or be a critical link in the Lions’ transition chains but was limited to 14 disposals and had next to no influence on the game. With Neale sidelined by injury, the Suns are likely to follow the same template and clamp down on McCluggage but, as the Lions co-vice-captain showed in the dying stages against the Hawks in round 24, he is more than capable of shouldering extra responsibility.
Touk Miller was the chief protagonist on the Gold Coast side as the Q-Clash turned from a manufactured marketing ploy into a genuinely fierce rivalry. The former Suns co-captain has been worth watching over the years for his running battles with the combative Dayne Zorko in particular, but could leave his biggest mark on the Lions by helping to shut down their midfield this week. Miller wins the ball on the inside or outside of the contest but will be just as crucial for blending his attacking and defensive nous while letting the Suns’ next generation of onballers in Anderson and Rowell go to work.
Early prediction
Brisbane have the big-game experience to put inconsistency and injuries aside for long enough to defeat Gold Coast and remain the kings of Queensland.
