The ACT has fared better than expected as other jurisdictions endure economy-shattering GST revenue losses because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Last week's federal budget included $1.159 billion in GST payments for the ACT.
While that's still about $316 million less than officials anticipated in last year's ACT budget before COVID-19, it's better than predicted by the last budget update.
The territory government's August economic outlook predicted the ACT would receive about $1.145 billion in GST revenue for 2020-21.
On Sunday, Chief Minister Andrew Barr said the outcome was positive but, like most of Australia, the territory could still have challenges ahead with GST revenue.
"I think there's better news on GST but it's still [down] on where it would otherwise have been without the pandemic," Mr Barr said.
"Really, it's very much contingent on what happens in Victoria because they're 25 per cent of the national economy.
"If they come out of lockdown and they're spending where it's back to normal, there is a chance there."
Last Thursday, the Chief Minister also flagged that how people spent impending tax cuts could be a factor in the future of GST revenue.
"If people don't spend those tax cuts but instead save them then we're not going to see an increase in the GST pool to the same extent," Mr Barr said.
"That's why we've been arguing that the best way to see money flow around the economy and to see the GST pool increase is to provide more direct support to low and moderate income earners because they are going to spend that money, they're not going to save it."
The Chief Minister said the ACT was expected to receive $243.2 million more in GST revenue over four years up until 2024, including the extra about $14 million allocated in the 2020-21 budget.
He said there was a chance the ACT's share of the GST revenue pool could increase.
"Western Australia and Queensland [have] mining industries [that] are still going quite well will, [which will] mean that it's possible that you'll see their share of the pool reduce a little," Mr Barr said.
"NSW will probably stay about the same and that might mean there's opportunity for the ACT's share to edge up a little, but it doesn't move radically."
The ACT's most recent economic forecast said for every 1 per cent reduction in the size of Australia's GST pool from 2020-21 to 2023-24, there was likely to be a corresponding reduction of around $50 million in the territory's GST revenue.
"If the ACT's relativity and our share of the Australian population are also lower than the baseline scenario, this would further exacerbate any reduction in GST revenue," the territory's August economic update said.
On Sunday, ACT Opposition Leader Alistair Coe said the Commonwealth government would deliver the territory $2.3 billion in revenue over the next four years, but tough economic conditions "hammered home" the importance of having a strong economy in the territory.
"[The Canberra Liberals is committed to] making sure that we've got more businesses and more people here in the ACT because if you've got more economic activity you've got more revenue," Mr Coe said.
"What we can't have is spiraling cost of living pressures and people moving over the border into NSW."
Mr Coe said only the Canberra Liberals would deliver the "knock-out blow" for Canberrans' cost of living pressures.
