Depending on the matchup, some weeks you lean more heavily on the run, and some weeks it’s the pass. This week for the Green Bay Packers feels like an Aaron Jones and run-heavy approach, given the matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
On the season, the Cowboys are allowing 4.2 yards per rush, which ranks right in the middle of the pack–although by ESPN’s advanced run-stop win rate metric, Dallas ranks 27th.
The recipe for beating the Cowboys this season has included a strong run game. In four of the Cowboys’ five losses, they gave up 222 rushing yards, 170, 109, and 266.
The Packers’ run game has come alive as of late. In part, the offensive line is playing its best football of the season, but to state the obvious, a healthy Jones has been back in the mix as well.
In the past three weeks, Jones has eclipsed 100 rushing yards each time, leading the NFL with 358 ground yards during that time frame, along with the most explosive runs of 10 or more yards as well.
“You can all see he’s a difference maker,” said Matt LaFleur. “His ability to be out there and get explosive gains and fight for some tough yardage, break tackles, both in the run game and pass game, he does a great job. He takes a lot of pressure off other people.”
Having a strong run game to lean on has a positive trickle-down effect to the rest of the offense. As both Jordan Love and LaFleur have pointed out, it can take the burden off the rest of the offense, specifically the passing game. This is a Dallas secondary that ranks ninth in yards per pass attempt given up and top-10 in interceptions.
A good rushing attack can also take some of the bite away from the pass rush, which this week features Micah Parsons, who led the NFL this season in pressures with 103. As a unit, the Cowboys rank first in pass-rush win rate coming out of Week 18.
When a defender has to worry about the run and the pass on a given play, they simply can’t just pin their ears back to get after the quarterback. There is a split-second of hesitation that benefits the offensive linemen.
“It helps us a lot,” said Elgton Jenkins about having a run game to lean on. “Those guys thinking we are going to run the ball because we are running it good, getting four or five yards a pop, so it slows down their rush, especially on the play-action pass because they are trying to stop the run. By the time they find out it’s the pass, J-Love throwing a dot to somebody. It works hand-in-hand, it works real good together.”
There is also something to be said for stringing together long drives, controlling the clock, and limiting the number of possessions for the opposing offense, especially against a Cowboys team that can put up points. Dallas leads the NFL in points per game, averaging just shy of 30.
“They’re just extremely explosive,” said LaFleur. “Dak (Prescott) is playing at a really high level. They’ve got a really good offensive line. Obviously, CeeDee (Lamb) is a problem. But they’ve got a lot of guys on that offense that have been able to make a bunch of explosive plays and they’re scoring at a high rate.”
AJ Dillon missed Sunday’s game against the Bears, dealing with a stinger he suffered the week prior against the Vikings. After the game, LaFleur said his status was day-to-day. Without Dillon, Jones was the only running back to get carries.
Last season, when the Packers pulled off the upset over Dallas at Lambeau Field, the run game played a crucial role in that outcome and helped contribute to Christian Watson’s breakout game.
Combined, Jones and Dillon would carry the ball 37 times in that 2022 matchup, totaling 203 rushing yards at 5.5 yards per carry. In order for the Packers to steal another win, and this time on Wildcard weekend, a similar approach may be required.
“We’re looking forward to the challenge,” added LaFleur on playing the Cowboys. “We’ve got a great opponent at their home stadium, and they’re playing some really good football right now.”
