AHMEDABAD: Gujarat had recorded its first two Covid cases on March 18, 2020. Thus, the pandemic has lasted for 684 days in the state so far. In these days, the state recorded 11.6 lakh total cases.
An analysis of second and third waves reveals that just 75 days - or 11% of total days of the pandemic - accounted for 68% or more than two-thirds of the total cases. While the current wave has recorded 3.22 lakh cases between January 1 and 30, 45 days between April 8 and May 22 had recorded 4.56 lakh cases.
In all, 7.78 lakh cases were recorded in the two waves of the pandemic. Of 684 days, 42 days recorded more than 10,000 daily cases. In the second wave, the highest daily tally was 14,605, which rose 1.7 times to 24,485 in the third wave. "Between the second and third wave, daily cases had gone down to 8 on September 19.
The cities have accounted for 61% of cases during the second wave and 76% in the third wave - indicating that the cases were more concentrated in cities in the third wave," said an epidemiologist.
City records 34% drop in new Covid cases in a day
The end of January also ushered in the possible end of the third wave for the city - in 24 hours the city recorded 2,350 cases, which was 34% less than the 3,582 recorded on Sunday. In a matter of 11 days, daily cases have reduced to one-fourth from 9,837 on January 20.
Analysis of the test positivity rate (TPR) reveals that the city's TPR of 17.5% on Monday was half of 37% on January 20. In comparison, the state's TPR on Monday was 7.2% or less than half that of the city's.
"Even today, the city accounts for one-third of the state's total cases. Once cases start reducing in the city, it is possible that daily cases may soon go below 2,500," said a city-based epidemiologist. "However, the coming wedding season will decide the course of the pandemic. It's likely that cases may increase slightly, but it's unlikely that we may see the same spike as after Uttarayan, when daily cases crossed 20,000."
With the death of six patients, Ahmedabad accounted for 101 of the state's 355 Covid mortalities in January, or 28.5% of the total deaths. Experts said that the profile of the deceased has not changed much in the past few days - the patients spent some time in ICUs or on ventilators and they were primarily above 50 years of age, had multiple comorbidities and had no earlier record of Covid.
Gujarat started administering the second dose of Covid vaccines to the 15-18 years age group on Monday and 64,488 doses were administered on the first day. So far, 26.93 lakh teens in the state have got their first dose against target of 35 lakh. Overall, Gujarat has administered 9.79 crore vaccination doses so far.
