DALLAS — Luka Doncic finished his fourth NBA season among the NBA’s top five scorers and assisters and as the only player to average at least 25 points, seven rebounds and eight assists per game in 2021-22.
A third consecutive first-team All-NBA honor and another top-five spot in MVP voting, too.
Not too bad for a 23-year-old who just wrapped up his first Western Conference finals experience.
But Doncic always aims for more.
What can he improve on to rise to legitimate, consensus MVP contender in Year 5?
Let’s analyze five factors.
Conditioning
This will be the most-discussed aspect of Doncic’s offseason, so we’ll evaluate it first.
Doncic admitted he started the 2020-21 season out of shape because his training plan didn’t fit the NBA’s last-minute start to a COVID-condensed schedule. And again in 2021-22, because he relaxed “a little bit too much” after Slovenia’s Tokyo Olympics grind.
How Doncic balances his prep and conditioning for next season with a busy summer schedule for the Slovenian national team — in short, whether he’s learned from past mistakes — will be key.
Will the prestigious EuroBasket tournament Sept. 1-18 be a bonus for Doncic and the Mavericks because he’ll already be in shape for an event that ends just a couple weeks before NBA training camps open? Or will Doncic power through another grueling tournament that leaves him off-kilter to start another run in Dallas?
Free-throw shooting
Another obvious mark.
Doncic shot 74.4% from the foul line this season, an improvement by 1.4 percentage points over his 73% mark in 2020-21. But he still fell another 1.4 percentage points short of his career best mark (75.8% in 2019-20).
Doncic improved to 77% from the foul line in the playoffs on nine attempts per game, but for a player who’s at his best when driving to create contact and defensive mismatches and when making crafty moves amid traffic at the rim, Doncic could capitalize more on the whistles he covets.
Among the NBA’s other top-20 regular-season scorers, just Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (72.2%) recorded a lower free-throw shooting percentage this season.
Off-ball movement
Lost in the conversation and highlights of the Mavericks’ Game 4 conference finals win over the Golden State Warriors was a five-and-go play that showcased Doncic’s cut from the left wing to the basket for an easy Frank Ntilikina dish.
Dallas has been open about the desire to re-sign Jalen Brunson in free agency and to decrease Doncic’s on-ball workload after he ranked second in usage percentage (36.8%), behind Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid this year.
But when Brunson or Spencer Dinwiddie initiated the Mavericks’ offensive possessions as a secondary ball handler this year, Doncic often stood in the corner or back from the action with little cutting or off-ball movement.
That allowed the defense to remain set and spaced with more ease and didn’t capitalize on the attention and threat Doncic can create — even without possession — as the heliocentric star of the offense.
With Doncic dictating the tempo and ball-handling, Dallas ran few a plays like the Ntilikina give-and-go this season, but tweaks in Doncic’s approach and patterns could unlock a new level of unguardability.
Defensive consistency
Doncic joked at times this season that he deserved all-defensive recognition across the league for the blocks and steals that became more commonplace during his first season under coach Jason Kidd’s defense.
He logged a career-best 107 defensive rating, two points per 100 possessions lower than his previous best, according to Basketball Reference, and gained comfortability as the Mavericks’ low man after he returned from an injury, conditioning-plagued first two months of the regular season.
But opponents still targeted Doncic’s defensive lapses this postseason, most notably in the second half of Game 2 against the Phoenix Suns.
After appearing slow, unenergetic and out of sync in that blowout loss, Doncic criticized his effort and Kidd called on him to “participate,” a buzzword he used throughout the season to push Doncic to step up.
Denver’s Nikola Jokic took a similar leap in defensive consistency and contributions en route to becoming the two-time reigning MVP, and Antetokounmpo and Embiid received significant consideration for Defensive Player of the Year and All-Defensive teams, respectively.
Doncic recognized that in the moments after the Mavericks’ season ended.
“Defense has got to be way better for me,” Doncic said. “Honestly, I think I made a huge step this year defensively, but there’s so much room for improvement. I’ve got to be way better there. I think that’s one spot that can take us to the next level.”
Transition composure
The first step toward Doncic’s participation on defense? Getting back to play it.
At times in the playoffs, particularly in the Western Conference finals, Doncic lamented his misses and argued with officials over perceived missed foul calls long enough to be the last player back down the court.
Charles Barkley chimed in among the many viewers “very disappointed” in Doncic’s activity and body language in the first half of the season-ending Game 5.
At multiple points this season, Kidd chided Doncic for letting his frustrations impact his defensive contributions, and Doncic took the coaching to heart as he logged just three technical fouls — including only one in the playoffs — from early March through late May.
But the NBA also rescinded another technical — which allowed Doncic to escape what would’ve been his first suspension for 16 in the regular season and rendered him completely unavailable, not just in transition defense.
Doncic showed progress at reigning in his emotions with songs and trust in Kidd, and his continued focus on poise should boost his two-way presence and national reputation for competitiveness.
