ELECTIONS guru John Curtice took to the stage at the Edinburgh Fringe today.
The University of Strathclyde professor was joined by broadcaster and author Michael Crick and journalist and political editor Brian Taylor for an interview as part of a series with LBC radio presenter Iain Dale on Tuesday afternoon.
Much of a political nature was discussed – Clacton and Nigel Farage, the SNP, Scottish Labour, and Nicola Sturgeon to name a few.
But what were some of the stand out contributions from the much respected pollster?
John Curtice makes one (joke-y) prediction about the Clacton by-election
A record 34 candidates are standing in the Clacton by-election on Thursday (the previous record is thought to be 26).
And with none of the mainstream parties standing against Reform UK leader Nigel Farage – who is expected to walk it – Curtice joked that it will likely make history as the by-election with the most lost deposits.
In a discussion with Crick on the amount of taxpayer funds have been spent on the recent Greater Manchester mayoral election, the Clacton by-election, and how none of the other candidates will even get close to Farage, Curtice then said: “But the Treasury will then get £32,500.”
Not quite you’d imagine. But it is true that a substantial amount of the 34 candidates will poll below 5% and therefore forfeit their £500 deposit to the Treasury's consolidated fund.
You must return the £500 deposit made by or on behalf of a candidate if the candidate is found to have polled more than 5% of the total number of valid votes cast in the constituency.
The pollster responds to Nicola Sturgeon claim about Scottish Greens support
Nicola Sturgeon recently warned John Swinney in a new forward to her memoir that the SNP risk losing more votes to the Scottish Greens under the party's current policy direction.
The former first minister said Swinney was “lucky” the Greens didn’t field more candidates at the Holyrood election, as they could have made the SNP’s election result worse.
At the election in May 2026, the SNP returned 58 MSPs compared to 64 in 2021, while the Scottish Greens doubled their number of Holyrood politicians from seven to 15.
Curtice said that it is true that Greens standing in more constituencies across Scotland could have lost the SNP seats, but not won the Greens any.
“We have to remember that the Greens contested the half a dozen constituencies where they thought they could do well,” he told the crowd.
“What however is probably true is that if the Greens had fought more widely, it’s not that they would have necessarily won more constituencies but that their vote would come disproportionately at the expense of the SNP.”
He added that such a dynamic would have potentially cost the SNP a few seats to Labour, for example, in some of their tighter constituency wins.
John Curtice makes clear why SNP support remains (relatively) strong
In one portion of the event, Crick seemed incredulous at the fact the SNP won an unprecedented fifth Holyrood election in spite of recent struggles – including the scandal over SNP finances which led to the imprisonment of its former chief executive, Sturgeon’s estranged husband Peter Murrell.
But Curtice made clear that support is indeed down from the highs of the 2021 Holyrood election.
Whilst the unpopularity of Keir Starmer and the Labour government played a part – coupled with the emergence of Reform UK – it is also the constitutional question which explains a lot, the pollster said, and that the SNP are seen as the primary vehicle towards Scottish independence.
“It is the case, as yet another opinion poll confirmed this morning, that half of the people who live north of the Border do not want to be part of the UK,” Curtice said – referring to The National’s exclusive poll.
“At the end of the day the constitutional question is not settled up here. Politically, it’s not going anywhere.”
Pay attention to Wales
The pollster also said that it is in Wales during the recent Senedd election where the most interesting political shift occurred recently.
“The reason why you should notice Wales is the challenge which is there – but also across the whole of the UK – to the traditional dominance of the Conservatives and Labour over our politics,” he said.
“But what has happened essentially in Wales is that basically most of the Tory vote went to Reform UK, and most of the Labour vote went to Plaid Cymru.”
Curtice added that what we have effectively seen in Wales is the swapping of one two-party system for another.
Does John Curtice think the Burnham bounce will last?
The pollster was asked whether the Burnham bounce, which has seen Labour leapfrog Reform to the top of the UK polls, will stand the test of time.
The pollster didn’t make any grandiose predictions, but did say that the current “status quo” in the polls (ie. Labour followed by Reform UK and then the Tories) is likely the safest bet for Christmas.
