Three states hold primaries Tuesday, with two of them well-versed in how to process mailed ballots.
Colorado and Utah are two of the five states that conducted their elections entirely by mail prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Other states have scrambled to adjust to exponential increases in absentee ballot requests from people wanting to avoid voting in-person, but these states already have systems in place for smooth vote counting.
In Colorado, ballots are due to election officials by Tuesday. In Utah, ballots received one to two weeks after the election can be counted as long as they are postmarked before Tuesday.
Oklahoma does allow voters to cast absentee ballots without providing an excuse, and a record number of voters have filed absentee ballot requests.
Most of the primaries to watch in these three states will set the match-ups for competitive House and Senate races in the fall. But in one battle, the winner will be the strong favorite in November. That’s in Utah’s heavily Republican 1st District, where four GOP candidates are competing for the nomination to succeed Rep. Rob Bishop, who is running for lieutenant governor.
Here are three things to watch:
1. Another progressive looks for an upset
Progressive candidates saw some encouraging returns in last week’s primaries in Kentucky and New York, and in Colorado former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is looking to tap into the energy on the left in his race against former Gov. John Hickenlooper. Both men are competing in the Democratic primary to take on Cory Gardner, the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate.
While he was running for president last year, Hickenlooper said he had no desire to be a senator. But he ultimately decided to jump into the Senate race and was quickly endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
In the primary, Hickenlooper has an advantage in name recognition and campaign cash. The former governor had more than seven times as much money in his campaign account as Romanoff in the final days of the race, with $5.9 million on hand as of June 10. Romanoff had $795,000 in his campaign account.
Outside Democratic groups have been spending in the race, mainly to bolster Hickenlooper. Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, has spent to boost Hickenlooper while a mysterious new group known as Let’s Turn Colorado Blue has been attacking Romanoff. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also launched early TV ads ahead of the primary, highlighting the Colorado Independent Ethics Commission’s recent finding that Hickenlooper violated the state’s gift ban while in office.
Hickenlooper has said the attacks are a sign that Republicans view him as the stronger candidate. But some Democrats believe that whoever emerges from the primary will have a good chance of defeating Gardner, since the state has been trending in their direction in recent years. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the Senate race Tilt Democratic.
2. Republicans pick opponents to vulnerable Democrats
Republicans in Oklahoma and Utah will pick challengers to two of the most vulnerable House Democrats, both of whom flipped districts President Donald Trump won in 2018.
The most competitive of those contests will be in suburban Oklahoma City’s 5th District, a seat Republicans held for 40 years before Rep. Kendra Horn’s surprise 2018 victory by less than 2 points. Trump won the district by 14 points in 2016 and Inside Elections rates the general election race a Toss-up.
Four of the nine GOP candidates are spending enough money to keep the primary competitive, and potentially push it to an Aug. 25 runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the vote. But local and national Republicans are consolidating around top-two fundraisers Stephanie Bice and Terry Neece.
Bice, a state senator who worked to loosen Oklahoma’s restrictions on alcohol sales, had raised $1 million and had $200,000 on hand as of June 10. She has positioned herself as a moderate who could capture independent voters and suburban women from Horn.
Neece, a businesswoman who was the state’s first female candidate for lieutenant governor, self-funded $450,000 of the $982,000 she has raised for her campaign. She has stressed her unswerving allegiance to Trump, saying in a recent debate that Trump is “the best president we have ever had,” defending his response to the coronavirus pandemic and echoing his repudiation of “mob rule” when she was asked if she supported the Black Lives Matter movement.
The anti-tax Club for Growth, which has spent $216,000 opposing Bice, put out an ad last week attacking her for “handing out” Oklahoma tax dollars to “Hollywood liberals” like “convicted rapist Harvey Weinstein.” Bice called the spot an insult to Oklahoma women and put out her own ad in response, saying it was made by “Never Trumper D.C. swamp lobbyists” attacking her because she “stands with Trump.”
Horn, who is expected to easily dispatch primary opponent Tom Guild, has $2.4 million in the bank
In Utah’s 4th District, none of the four GOP candidates vying to challenge Rep. Ben McAdams has managed a breakout moment. Even though Republicans had high hopes of winning back the district that Trump won by 7 points, spending and advertising in the race has been minimal, according to Utah Policy.
Top fundraiser Burgess Owens, a former NFL player, had the lead in a UtahPolicy.com/KUTV poll of likely Republican primary voters. Owens, who also has been a frequent contributor to Fox News, had raised $640,000 by June 10 and had $111,000 left in the bank.
State House Rep. Kim Coleman has the backing of several conservative outside groups including the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus. She had raised $575,000 and had $84,000 on hand. And former talk show host Jay McFarland had raised $166,000 and had $5,000 left.
Businessman Trent Christensen raised some GOP hopes when he entered the race in the spring because he was once a fundraiser for Sen. Mitt Romney. But he has fizzled after raising only $96,000. He had $2,000 left in the bank.
The winner will face an uphill climb against McAdams, who was unopposed in the primary and had $2.2 million cash on hand. Inside Elections rates the November race Tilt Democratic.
Republicans are also targeting Democratic Rep. Jason Crow in Colorado’s 6th District, who served as an impeachment manager and also flipped a Republican-held seat in 2018. Only one GOP candidate is competing in Tuesday’s primary to take on Crow: former state party chairman Steve House. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Democratic.
3. 2018 rematch?
There could be a 2018 rematch in Colorado’s 3rd District if former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush wins the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Scott Tipton. She lost to Tipton by 8 points in 2018, which was his smallest margin of victory since he unseated Democrat John Salazar in 2010.
Mitsch Busch faces businessman James Iacino, who has Salazar’s backing, in the primary. Iacino has spent more than $340,000 of his own money on the campaign, but Mitsch Bush had a financial advantage in the final stretch before the primary. As of June 10, her campaign had $351,000 on hand while Iacino had $194,000.
Democrats have targeted the 3rd District given Tipton’s shrinking margins and the district’s sizable Hispanic population. But it could still be a tough race for a Democrat, since Trump carried the district by 12 points in 2016. Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican.
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