While soccer’s most lucrative honors tend to be awarded to the most dominant attacking performer of the league/competition/tournament’s victor, FIFA’s voters have historically done things a little differently.
The Golden Ball award has been handed out to the best player at every World Cup since 1982. Since then, only four victors have simultaneously been crowned world champion.
The pattern suggests that individual genius isn’t the be-all and end-all on soccer’s grandest stage, with cohesive brilliance and resilience more likely to facilitate World Cup glory. There are those that have bucked the trend, though, including Lionel Messi in 2022, who became the first man since Romário in 1994 to add the Golden Ball to the sport’s ultimate achievement in one fell swoop.
Just 10 players in history have claimed the Golden Ball, and there’s no guarantee that an 11th will join the illustrious list, given Messi’s likely presence in North America this summer.
Still, the odds suggest that a new superstar will get their hands on the prize. Here, Sports Illustrated ranks the 10 most likely Golden Ball winners at the 2026 World Cup.
10. Bruno Fernandes
Players may not need to win the World Cup to also win the Golden Ball, but the winner will almost certainly enjoy a deep run at the upcoming tournament.
Of the 11 winners, two were eliminated in the semifinals and five were beaten finalists.
Portugal is only two-time semifinalists and has never before played in a World Cup final. However, Roberto Martínez’s squad is laden with talent, and they’re the popular outsiders’ choice to win the World Cup for the first time.
Cristiano Ronaldo will probably do much of the goalscoring, but this hasn’t been his Portugal team for quite some time. Instead, Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes is likely to be the key inspiration off the back of an excellent Premier League campaign that could see him break the competition’s single-season assist record.
9. Raphinha
You could argue that Raphinha is more likely to win the Golden Boot than he is the Golden Ball. Only two players, Italian duo Paolo Rossi and Toto Schillaci, have claimed both awards at the same World Cup.
Stellar goalscoring historically hasn’t won the voters over, and we’ve already seen Raphinha’s aesthetics hinder him somewhat when awards season comes around.
He recorded a staggering 62 goal contributions for a treble-winning Barcelona team last season, yet only finished fifth in Ballon d’Or voting.
Raphinha’s efficiency is astounding, and he’s a threat from range, too. The Brazil factor is important because voters would find it hard to resist the man who inspires the Seleção back to soccer’s imperious pedestal after a 24-year hiatus.
8. Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior’s prestige has doubtless been hindered by Kylian Mbappé’s arrival in Madrid, with the Brazilian’s goalscoring returns more modest over the past couple of years.
However, Vini Jr’s status as a superstar is undeniable. He’s an electrifying winger who’s proved decisive on the biggest occasions at club level.
With Neymar unlikely to be trusted by Carlo Ancelotti, Vini Jr will function as Brazil’s World Cup protagonist in North America. For once, they won’t enter the tournament as one of the three favorites, and the reduced expectations may play into the Seleção’s hands.
Will he finally step up for the national team?
7. Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé loves the World Cup.
After announcing himself to a global audience in Russia for the eventual champions eight years ago, Mbappé then became the first player since Sir Geoff Hurst in 1966 to score a World Cup final hat-trick.
The reigning Golden Boot winner has an identical scoring record at the tournament to Pelé and is just four adrift of Miroslav Klose’s all-time haul of 16 goals. He’s on track to break the record in North America.
While Mbappé has attempted to evolve and develop into more of a playmaker, he’s far more effective when he’s getting on the end of attacks, not crafting them. Given the abundance of French superstars in close proximity, Mbappé is more likely to be a Golden Boot, rather than a Golden Ball, winner.
6. Rayan Cherki
Manchester City’s X-factor is spearheading their late-season surge towards a domestic cup and Premier League treble.
Cherki is a rare breed of playmaker who extracts the romantic impulses of any soccer supporter. He’s an enthralling watch, with his variance and unpredictability with the ball at his feet currently rendering the Frenchman unmissable.
He may not completely dominate games, but his impact can be felt so strongly in just a couple of majestic sequences. Cherki has the potential to be the Diego Forlan or James Rodríguez of this World Cup, but France’s stacked squad works against him.
Cameos off the bench are likely in the group stage, but you cannot rule out Didier Deschamps being completely hypnotized by Cherki’s talent.
5. Ousmane Dembélé
The reigning Ballon d’Or holder has to be in the mix.
Ousmane Dembélé’s 2025–26 season hasn’t been quite so staggering due to fitness setbacks, but the Frenchman seems to be coming into form at just the right time. His Paris Saint-Germain side are chasing a second consecutive Champions League triumph.
Dembélé has often been outshone on the international stage and has scored just seven times in 57 caps. However, never before has he entered a major tournament so assured of his abilities.
If he stays fit this summer, the two-footed Dembélé has as good a chance as any to win the Golden Ball.
4. Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi committed to the next World Cup cycle after his crowning glory in Qatar, but doubts remain as to whether he’ll actually be a part of Lionel Scaloni’s squad this summer.
We’re going to bank on Messi teaming up with the holders in North America, and as long as he’s there, the GOAT has to be regarded among the favorites to claim a third Golden Ball. He became the first player to win multiple awards in 2022, having emerged as a heroic loser in 2014.
Argentina has proven itself to be capable of functioning at a high level without its irresistible talisman, but Scaloni’s group will once again shape shift to ensure Messi’s optimally platformed.
He can still cut it with the very best, there’s no doubt about that.
3. Harry Kane
The extent of Harry Kane’s success at the 2026 World Cup will depend on his fitness.
England’s all-time record goalscorer, who claimed the Golden Boot award eight years ago, has so often looked off the pace at major tournaments, and Bayern Munich’s deep Champions League run could result in a similar tale playing out for Kane this summer.
However, he’s arguably playing the best soccer of his career, with his importance to the Three Lions manifesting during an uninspiring March break for Thomas Tuchel’s side.
Kane is the best striker in the game, and his continued evolution as a dazzling playmaker means he’s certainly in Golden Ball contention.
2. Michael Olise
The former Crystal Palace winger is leading the way with Kane in the 2026 Ballon d’Or power rankings, and their respective World Cup performances could decide who ends up with France Football’s esteemed prize, especially if Bayern Munich win the Champions League.
We touched upon aesthetic bias when discussing Raphinha’s Golden Ball hopes, and Olise, along with Cherki, may well be the most watchable soccer player in the world right now.
An elegant left-footed winger who drifts inside from the right with effortless devastation, it looks like Deschamps will hand Olise the keys to this outrageously gifted France team. He’s set to occupy a No. 10 role and have the pleasure of serving the likes of Mbappé and Dembélé.
Goal contributions are inevitable, but so are mesmeric dribbling sequences and moments of genius craft that will make you wonder how Palace never emerged as Premier League title contenders with the Frenchman leading the way.
1. Lamine Yamal
It’s set up for the world’s best player to dominate his first World Cup.
Lamine Yamal has endured lulls in 2025–26, but he’s ending the season in stellar form, grabbing games by the scruff of the neck for Barcelona down the stretch.
Perhaps the most impressive teenager the sport has seen since Pelé tore up the 1958 World Cup, Yamal is the leading man of a collectively outstanding Spain team that won the European Championships two summers ago.
It’s admittedly rare for teenagers to dominate World Cups, with the likes of Maradona and Messi producing their best work on the biggest stage during their peak or twilight.
However, Yamal is no ordinary starlet.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2026 World Cup: The Favorites to Win the Golden Ball—Ranked.
