OAKMONT, Pa. — The rough is healthy, the fairways are drying out and the greens are faster than your garage floor. In short, it’s almost time for another U.S. Open at Oakmont.
The venerable club outside Pittsburgh is hosting our national championship for a record 10th time, having tormented the game’s best for almost a century. There’s an argument to be made that Oakmont is the best Open course. It certainly can deliver pain like almost no other; Rory McIlroy got a taste of it last week when he said he shot 81.
Fan-favorite Bryson DeChambeau is looking to defend his title, all while continuing to march to his own beat. Scottie Scheffler comes in looking for a second straight major after winning the PGA Championship last month, but if you take him as the odds-on favorite and he wins, sorry, you can’t send a tip to his Venmo. As for McIlroy, he is not sure what is in store next after completing the career Grand Slam but we know where he will be Thursday morning at 7:40 a.m. ET: on the first tee with Justin Rose and Shane Lowry (full tee times here).
So who do you have taking home the trophy Sunday night? Writers and editors from the Sports Illustrated Golf team have made their picks and, no, not everyone thinks that Scheffler will win.
Bob Harig, SI Golf Senior Writer: Scottie Scheffler. He leads the PGA Tour in strokes-gained off the tee and strokes-gained tee to green, two pretty important stats at Oakmont, where driving the ball in play is essential. Having won three of his last four starts and getting a rest after the Memorial victory should also help. Winning score: 275, 5 under par.
John Pluym, SI.com Managing Editor: Bryson DeChambeau, 4 over. Oakmont isn’t a bomber’s paradise, but I love DeChambeau’s approach to the game. He’s constantly tweaking his game to get better. He’s not afraid to experiment with equipment, golf balls, you name it. He did it last year at Pinehurst No. 2, holding off Rory McIlroy. This year, he’s been close in the Masters and the PGA Championship. This is his time. Move over Scottie Scheffler. DeChambeau is coming for you.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf Managing Director: Everything this week is screaming Scottie Scheffler, but I’ll go against the grain and take Jon Rahm. He’s been quietly consistent this season on LIV, and yes, I know, a bunch of top-10 finishes in 54-man fields rings hollow. But Rahm clearly went through an adjustment when he jumped to LIV and his major-championship performances drifted. This year he looks more like himself, and he was right there on Sunday at the PGA. The next time he gets in major contention I think he’ll be ready to close it, and this week looks as good as any. He tames Oakmont at 2 under.
Michael Rosenberg, SI Senior Writer: Shane Lowry, 5 under. I believe the winner will come down to three factors: Consistently hitting irons into greens, making par after missing greens and how Scottie Scheffler plays. If Scheffler is close to his best, he should win. But let’s imagine he doesn’t. Lowry is second on the PGA Tour in shots-gained approaching the green and first in proximity to the hole. He is also one of the best chippers in the world. So he checks the first two boxes. The last time the Open came to Oakmont, Lowry led by four strokes after three rounds before shooting a final-round 76. Since then, he has won a major (the 2019 British Open at Royal Portrush) and played for two Ryder Cup teams. He is my (non-Scheffler) pick.
Max Schreiber, SI Golf Contributor: It’s boring, I know, but Scottie Scheffler is playing too well right now to go against him. And it's a great course fit. Everybody is saying that Oakmont is a beast this week, so let's say he wins at even par. It'll be the highest score since 2018. Then, we’ll enter the British Open talking about whether he can complete the career Grand Slam.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 U.S. Open Predictions: Our Picks to Win and Their Score at Oakmont.
