Nobody knows how the Falcons’ 2019 NFL draft class is going to work out at the next level. They might get a couple future Hall of Famers and they might all turn out to be busts. There’s no way to know for sure before they have played a single snap in the pros. However, if we judge Atlanta’s draft haul based on analytics, then it wasn’t pretty.
According to the inimitable Arif Hasan at the Athletic, the Consensus Big Board indicates that the Falcons got the worst return on investment for their draft capital of any team this year.
Going into the draft, Atlanta had 4,922 points in total draft value based on the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. However, the Falcons only got 3,060 points of value with their picks based on where their players were ranked on the big board. That gave them a 62.2 percent return on their investment, which was significantly lower than every other team. For some perspective, the Colts ranked second to last at 69.7 percent.
It’s not hard to figure out why the ROI numbers are so harsh on Atlanta. Picking any guard (even the best guard in the class) at No. 14 is going to be considered a reach and there were several better offensive tackle prospects still on the board when the team traded up for Kaleb McGary at No. 31.
Nevertheless, the offensive line should be dramatically improved thanks to those picks. If that’s the case the Falcons probably won’t care what anyone thinks about their draft class.
