Now that the 2019 NBA draft is in the rearview mirror, we can begin to sharpen our focus on the start of free agency. I have previously ranked the top ten point guards, shooting guards and small forwards on the market this offseason. Today, we’ll breakdown the best power forwards set to enter free agency this summer.
1. Kristaps Porzingis – Restricted – Dallas Mavericks:
Inking Porzingis to a five-year max contract is a sizable risk, considering the 7’3″ unicorn hasn’t stepped foot on an NBA court in over 16 months due to a torn ACL. However, the Mavericks wouldn’t have traded Dennis Smith Jr. (the ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft) and two future first-round selections (a 2021 unprotected first round draft pick and a top-ten protected first rounder in 2023) in exchange for KP if they weren’t ready to commit to him long term. And, considering his tremendous upside, there are justifiable reasons to believe Porzingis can develop into a franchise cornerstone alongside Luka Doncic. Over his first 150 career games, Porzingis knocked down more 3-pointers than Reggie Miller, Kevin Durant or James Harden did during their first 150 career contests, while also blocking more shots than Kevin Garnett or Dwight Howard did in their first 150 games.
2. Tobias Harris – Unrestricted – Philadelphia 76ers:
Harris will turn 27 next month and is entering the heart of his prime. He’s already proven himself a remarkably durable, efficient and effective NBA player, with room for growth. However, Harris has never made an All-Star team, and if he re-signs with Philadelphia and spends the next few seasons playing alongside Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, he will have a tough time making an All-Star squad going forward. The max the Sixers can offer him is five-years and $188 million. That seems an awfully high price to pay for a very good, but not great NBA star. Yet, considering the tremendous amount of assets the Sixers traded away to acquire Harris back in February (Landry Shamet, a 2020 first-round pick, an unprotected 2021 first-rounder [via Miami] and two second-rounders), they may be forced to into a corner. It would be very difficult for GM Elton Brand to justify giving up all those assets for what would amount to a six-month rental.
3. Julius Randle – Player Option – New Orleans Pelicans:
In 2017-18, there was only one player in the NBA to average at least 16 points, eight rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, while shooting over 55.5% from the field. Last season, bumped up his averages across the board, averaging 21.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists and still converted over 52% of his field goal attempts. The only other player to tally at least 21/8/3 and shoot over 52% from the floor was Giannis Antetokounmpo. Yes, Randle’s defensive deficiencies are certainly a concern, but his offensive prowess will have plenty of teams eagerly knocking on his door at the start of free agency.
4. Paul Millsap – Team Option – Denver Nuggets:
The Nuggets certainly value Millsap, and he proved his worth by playing well down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs. However, the question is whether Denver believes he is worth $30.5 million in 2019-20, as that is the cost of Millsap’s team option. That’s a very hefty price to pay for a player that is already 34 years old, ranked fourth on the team in scoring, and averaged fewer than 13 points per game for the first time since his sophomore season back in 2007-08. Nonetheless, Nuggets president Tim Connelly told reporters last month that he “fully expects” Millsap to remain with the team next season.
5. Nikola Mirotic – Unrestricted – Milwaukee Bucks:
When healthy, Mirotic has posted some very impressive numbers. For instance, after a solid postseason in New Orleans in the 2018 playoffs, he averaged 16.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.7 made 3-pointers for the Pelicans over his first 32 games this past regular season. However, after being traded to the Bucks at the deadline, he was again bitten by the injury bug and never found a comfort zone in Milwaukee. Injury concerns are a major red flag for Mirotic, as he’s missed double-digit games in each of the last four seasons.
6. Thaddeus Young – Unrestricted – Indiana Pacers:
Young is durable (he’s played in at least 74 games in each of the last eight seasons) and a versatile contributor. He’s one of only eight active players with over 11,000 career points, 5,000 rebounds, 1,000 assists and 1,000 steals. The other seven are LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Vince Carter, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala, Russell Westbrook, Paul Millsap. Of those eight players, Young is the only one who has recorded more assists and steals than turnovers in his career. Young turns 31 this month, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. In 2018-19, he posted career-highs in VORP (3.1) and Box Plus/Minus (2.9).
7. Marcus Morris – Unrestricted – Boston Celtics:
Morris has been remarkably consistent and productive during the prime of his career, averaging between 13.6 and 14.1 points per game in each of his last four seasons. Content coming off the bench or in the starting lineup, Morris was a key contributor for the Celtics in 2018-19. He was particularly effective and efficient in the postseason, when he averaged 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 made trifectas, while shooting 52% from the floor and 45% from 3-point territory. After earning just $5 million last season, Morris will be looking for a significant raise this summer.
8. Bobby Portis – Restricted – Washington Wizards:
After spending the first three full seasons of his career in Chicago, Portis was traded to Washington at the deadline and given an expanded role for the Wizards. He responded by logging a career-high 27.4 minutes over the 28 games he played in D.C. and averaged 14.3 points and 8.6 rebounds. The most impressive stat from his short stint with the Wiz was his accuracy from downtown. Portis shot 40.3% on 4.3 attempts per game. On the season, Portis was one of three qualified players to shoot above 37% or better from 3-point territory and average seven or more rebounds per game. The other two were Karl-Anthony Towns and Paul George. The Wizards can match any offer he receives, but the Lakers, Clippers, Jazz, Bucks, Magic and Knicks are reportedly among the teams interested in the 24-year-old forward.
9. Al-Farouq Aminu – Unrestricted – Portland Trail Blazers:
Aminu has been a solidly reliable contributor for the Blazers in each of the last four years. Last season, he started 81 games for Portland and was productive on both ends of the floor. Among the Blazers rotation regulars, he’s the only one set to enter free agency this offseason. Portland did snag UNC’s Nassir Little in the first round, who could eat up some minutes at forward, but the Blazers would likely prefer to keep their core intact and bring back Aminu.
10. Taj Gibson – Unrestricted – Minnesota Timberwolves:
After signing a two-year, $28 million contract with the Wolves in July of 2017, Gibson had a phenomenal first season in Minnesota. He started all 82 games and averaged over 12 points and seven boards in 33 minutes a night. However, Gibson started just 57 contests for the Wolves in 2018-19, logged only 24 minutes per game, and his output dipped as a result. However, he was still efficient, shooting over 56% fro the floor and 75% from the free throw line. He’ll be 34 at the start of free agency, but he still has plenty of value as a backup big off the bench on a contending team.
Best of the Rest
* Markieff Morris – Unrestricted – Oklahoma City Thunder
* JaMychal Green – Unrestricted – Los Angeles Clippers
* Jeff Green – Unrestricted – Washington Wizards
* Kenneth Faried – Unrestricted – Houston Rockets
