Hawthorn
2015 ladder position: 3rd (premiers)
2016 predicted ladder range: 1st-3rd
What can stop Hawthorn but Hawthorn themselves? That’s what many of us are currently pondering as the flag-hogging champions head into the 2016 season in pursuit of their fourth consecutive premiership.
The popular theory against this Hawthorn side achieving immortality, if it hasn’t already, is the same old ageist one that a number of their chief contributors – captain Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Josh Gibson and Shaun Burgoyne particularly – are getting long in the tooth. But even 31-year-old Hodge does sort of carry himself in that Tuckian, “you’ll have to carry me out of here in a body bag” manner that suggests he’s a long way from finished. Lewis might literally be indestructible and remains a catalyst in so much of Hawthorn’s scoring. So for them, coaching demi-god Alastair Clarkson and the Hawks, why not another September triumph?
If you remember, we also said they were too old last year and were proven wrong in the end. Not only that, the Hawks actually took the hard road, struggling early in the year before peaking late in classical Hawthorn style to knock off the Dockers in Perth and then – with the oldest grand final team in history – crushed a fleet-footed West Coast side that seemed to have all the momentum a challenger would ever need. Hawthorn didn’t do it by nursing players through the season, either. Mitchell only missed two games, Gibson one, Burgoyne none, and Hodge only took breaks to serve suspensions. You have to earn your way into the Hawthorn side, which is why the 2015 triumph meant so much to the likes of Ryan Schoenmakers, a nearly-man in previous years.
Unlike their superb wheeling and dealing of the past half-dozen off-seasons, the Hawks couldn’t land a big recruit in the off-season, though in the case of Port hard nut Ollie Wines it wasn’t through lack of trying. Jack Fitzpatrick is a low-key arrival from Melbourne following the retirement of David Hale, who joined defender Brian Lake in calling it quits. Last year’s major arrival James Frawley (along with 2015 flag omittee Matt Spangher) is already in place to cover Lake’s departure. If he’s hoping to add pinch-hitting ruck duties to his repertoire, Fitzpatrick will sit in the queue behind Jon Ceglar and Ben McEvoy.
And looking beyond the veterans list already mentioned, there’s actually plenty of youth and development left in this side. Forwards Jack Gunston (24 years old), Luke Breust (25), Cyril Rioli (26), Ryan Schoenmakers (25), Paul Puopolo (28) are all in their physical prime and have plenty left in the tank, and though Jarryd Roughead (29) will miss the first half of the season following knee surgery, he’s at the height of his powers and, touch wood, has at least a few more peak years in him. In the midfield Billy Hartung (20), Bradley Hill (22), Liam Shiels (24), Will Langford (23), Jonathan O’Rourke (21) and Isaac Smith (27) all have salad days ahead. Ditto defence, where Frawley (27), Spangher (28), Taylor Duryea (24), Grant Birchall (28) and Ben Stratton (27) are all fixtures.
So Hawthorn sit at the precipice of something monumental and there’s no glaring warning signs that it’s unachievable. They’re solid at the back, formidable in the middle and, even granting the upheaval that Roughead’s absence will cause (Liam Shiels will also sit out the first three to six weeks with a wrist injury), boast a compelling and complementary mix of forwards.
The hope for the rest of the league is that the Hawks falter in the regular season, particularly in tough patches like the Geelong-West Coast-Bulldogs opening sequence and the North-Eagles-Collingwood finish. They’ll face Sydney, West Coast, North Melbourne and Richmond twice but get the Dockers at home (Aurora Stadium, granted) and only once. Their opportunities for percentage-boosting double dips against cellar-dwellers are few and far between, one of the tolerable prices of sustained excellence. Is it possible they’ll have to do this from outside the top four?
In the last few years Hawthorn has showed that as long as they’re in reasonable shape by the end of round 23, all of the various machinations of the league up until that point are just background noise. For the 17 other clubs trying to stop it happening, the case for “Fourthawn” is worryingly strong.
West Coast
2015 ladder position: 2nd
2016 predicted ladder range: 1st-3rd
Even given their grand final capitulation against the Hawks it was a crazy, dizzying, wonderful year for West Coast in 2015. Having lost key defenders Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown for the season and with the entire competition knowing that most of their midfielders bar Matt Priddis oscilated a little too frequently between their best and worst, expectations weren’t sky high.
But necessity breeds invention and Adam Simpson responded to his side’s plight with what was soon dubbed the “Weagles web”, either a zone defensive system par excellence or a media-driven load of old cobblers, depending on your particular view. Regardless, Simpson’s reign made the likes of Jeremy McGovern, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Sharrod Wellingham, Brad Sheppard and Will Schofield reach new heights. In the space of a few months McGovern had turned into a superstar. The challenge for he and his team-mates this season is to avoid the fate of Port Adelaide in 2015 – going from hunter to hunted.
“If we don’t improve, we’ll go backwards. We understand that as a player group,” Simpson said in the off-season. “I’m the first one to say we’re not there yet. We’re not Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney. We’re still building towards that. There’s been teams that have gone down as quick as they’ve come up, so at the moment we’re still establishing our presence in the AFL.” That sounds like a confident coach managing expectations but he might not need to be so guarded.
What this squad does have is a solid core of highly capable players and some genuine stars, to which Sydney midfield speedster Lewis Jetta was added in the off-season. Mackenzie’s return could be as impactful as that of a new recruit because it will add to the possibilities offered by McGovern, who might again head forward and do damage alongside or in relief of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Mark LeCras and Jamie Cripps.
Versatile big man Callum Sinclair was the only major personnel loss but the fear is it might be a significant one; he was unsung but highly impactful in West Coast’s 2015 charge. Already an architect in much of what’s good about this side, Nic Naitanui is thus an even more precious commodity. Jonathan Giles has arrived at his fourth AFL club as ruck cover. Scott Lycett was leap-frogged by Sinclair last year but might get more opportunities this time.
It’s hard to see this West Coast side going too far wrong or suffering any dramatic plummet. The back six of McGovern, Sheppard, Mackenzie, Schofield, Wellingham and Shannon Hurn is as strong as any in the league and the key forwards a nightmare proposition for opposition defences if the supply comes. Continued success hinges on players like Gaff and Shuey putting in two consecutive seasons of elite performances and getting support from the likes of Chris Masten and last year’s revelation Dom Sheed. You know exactly what you’ll get every week from Priddis and Jetta will hopefully live up to his name on the outside.
The most interesting question here is not so much whether West Coast will suffer a sophomore slump, but if having avoided it, they’re capable of delivering when it matters – in the middle of the MCG in front of 100,000 roaring fans. In last season’s decider they were overawed by the moment. The chance of putting it right is an intriguing sub-plot to Hawthorn’s historic quest.
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Join Russell Jackson for the Guardian’s opening AFL liveblog of the season tonight, from 6:45pm AEST, when Richmond take on Carlton.
