The United States is in the midst of a structural transformation in its role within the global energy system, and this time it's not about shale oil.
It's about liquefied natural gas (LNG), where the U.S. is now the world’s largest exporter, and where capacity additions between now and 2030 are likely to redraw global gas trade maps.
The investment implications are real and investable.
I'm referring to Venture Global (NYSE:VG) and NextDecade (NASDAQ:NEXT).
These are not hypothetical greenfield dreams. Both firms have signed long-term offtake agreements with major international buyers. Both are building or expanding export infrastructure on the Gulf Coast. And both are positioned to ride the next decade’s wave of demand from energy-starved allies in Europe and Asia who are rewriting energy security doctrine in real time.
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Let's look at the setup.
U.S. LNG exports have grown from effectively zero in 2015 to over 14 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024, and that number could exceed 24 Bcf/d by 2028 based on projects already under construction.
LNG is now a critical geopolitical tool. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe scrambled to replace piped gas with seaborne LNG. Imports from the U.S. filled the gap, particularly in Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Poland. Infrastructure buildout is ongoing and U.S. cargoes are winning long-term market share.
In Asia, the story is just as bullish. Japan and South Korea remain LNG-heavy economies with little domestic production. China, which briefly became the largest global importer of LNG in 2021, has returned to the market with an appetite, especially for low-emission cargoes. In Southeast Asia, countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines are expanding their regasification capacity to replace coal and support renewable energy.
This backdrop matters because U.S. LNG terminals tend to sign 20-year take-or-pay contracts, often with fixed tolling fees or indexed pricing tied to Henry Hub or Brent. That means project sponsors can lock in cash flows well before first gas and long before most equity investors start paying attention.
Venture Global, long considered one of the most aggressive and vertically integrated LNG developers in the U.S., went public in January 2025 with a $1.75 billion IPO that valued the company at roughly $58 billion. The firm already operates the Calcasieu Pass terminal in Louisiana, with 10 MTPA of nameplate capacity. It began commissioning the first phase of the Plaquemines LNG project in late 2024. The full Plaquemines complex is expected to reach 20 MTPA; the firm’s broader development pipeline targets over 70 MTPA of additional export capacity.
What differentiates VG is its modular construction model. Rather than traditional stick-built LNG trains, Venture Global uses prefabricated liquefaction units manufactured off-site and shipped to terminal locations. The strategy is designed to compress timelines and lower costs; so far, it has allowed VG to bring Calcasieu online faster than many of its rivals expected.
The company has long-term contracts with Shell, BP, Repsol, Edison, and other major energy companies. However, it is also embroiled in high-profile disputes with some of those same counterparties over commissioning delays and cargo availability during ramp-up phases. That legal overhang creates near-term risk, but it also validates VG’s strategic importance. Buyers are fighting for access to supply, and VG’s contracts are too big to walk away from. As these disputes are resolved, revenue recognition is expected to return to normal.
The bottom line: Venture Global is a genuine business with active operations, transparent cash flow, and a clear roadmap to becoming one of the world’s largest LNG exporters. With the IPO completed, the stock is now public and liquid, providing investors with exposure to U.S. LNG through a company that has already cleared the financing and permitting hurdles.
NextDecade is several years behind Venture Global in terms of operations, but it is potentially just as significant for long-term investors. The company is building the Rio Grande LNG terminal in Brownsville, Texas. Phase one is fully permitted and under construction, with five liquefaction trains targeting a capacity of 17.6 million tons per annum (MTPA). The company has already signed long-term offtake agreements with Shell, TotalEnergies, Itochu, Guangdong Energy, and Galp, among others.
The project reached final investment decision in 2023, and first gas is expected in 2027. Debt and equity financing were raised from a mix of institutional backers, including Global Infrastructure Partners and Mubadala. Engineering and construction are being handled by Bechtel, a global leader in LNG infrastructure, a de-risking factor that matters for a project of this scale.
NextDecade’s unique value proposition comes in part from its plans to incorporate carbon capture and storage (CCS) into its facility. The Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) module, called NEXT Carbon Solutions, is designed to sequester up to 5 million metric tons of CO₂ per year. This has the potential to turn Rio Grande into one of the lowest-carbon LNG projects in the world, which is a major selling point for ESG-conscious buyers and a source of differentiation in an increasingly competitive LNG landscape.
Unlike Venture Global, which already produces and exports cargoes, NextDecade is still a development-stage company, which means investors are taking on more project execution risk. But the reward, if things go well, is substantial: a move from a few hundred million in market cap to multi-billion-dollar cash flow generation over the next decade.
Both companies benefit from the same macro trend: global demand for U.S. LNG is not going away. Supply disruptions in Russia, nuclear uncertainty in Japan and France, and policy-driven coal retirements across Asia all point in the same direction: more need for reliable, affordable gas.
VG is the scale operator. You get existing production, a large and growing pipeline, and a management team that has proven it can deliver projects, albeit not without controversy.
NEXT is the optionality bet. If Rio Grande executes cleanly and CCS proves to be a commercial differentiator, this company could become the next billion-dollar LNG franchise.
Investors should treat these differently. VG is a developing infrastructure play with existing EBITDA. NEXT is a pre-cash-flow, construction-phase opportunity where value will be unlocked in stages. One is a toll road with a legal fight. The other is a project finance story still unfolding.
This is not a bet on short-term gas prices. This is a bet on energy flows, hard infrastructure, and U.S. policy support for LNG exports. If you believe, as I do, that the world is going to need more natural gas for longer than current energy transition narratives would have us believe, then LNG export capacity becomes a valuable asset, and these are the companies building it.
NEXT gives you torque. VG gives you scale. Both are leveraged to a global need for clean, secure energy that is not going away. Both have the potential to be massive winners for patient, aggressive investors.
Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.
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