19 for ’19: 19 key offseason topics: No. 7. Which five teams have the potential to turn into disappointments?
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19 for ’19 Offseason Topics
19: Best Teams To Not Make CFP
18: Teams That Will Rebound Big
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Top 5 Instant Impact New Head Coaches
15. 2nd Year Coaches Who’ll Be Better
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. Key Transfers You Forgot About
12. Five Big Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. Great Players About To Go Nuclear
10. Group of 5 Teams In New Year’s Six Chase
9. Power 5 Sleeper Teams
8. Most Interesting Quarterback Battles
Seriously? Wisconsin lost to BYU early on and turned out to be a big, dull dud?
Seriously? Arizona lost to BYU early on and turned out to be a big, dull dud?
Seriously? Miami went from being a preseason national title contender to not being able to throw a forward pass … and turning out to be a big, dull dud?
Seriously? USC stumbled to a losing season, UCLA didn’t even get out of the gate, and Virginia Tech needed a contingency plan just to go bowling?
Every year, seemingly sure-thing good teams turn into massive disappointments. Which Power Five teams will start the season with big expectations after big 2018 seasons?
ACC: Pitt
The planets aligned perfectly for Pitt to win the Coastal and get to the ACC Championship. That’s not going to happen again.
Miami was way down, and it still managed to beat the Panthers 24-3. Virginia Tech was way down, too, but it’s not going to be nearly as bad this time around when the two meet in Blacksburg.
Last year’s team found a way to get by Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Duke in close battles, getting hot when it had to in the second half of the year to take control of the division.
It also helped that Clemson wasn’t on the pre-ACC Championship schedule.
This year’s team will still be good. The receiving corps is strong, but the top running backs and most of the key offensive linemen are gone, and six starters have to be replaced on defense. The bigger problem, though, is the schedule.
Virginia, Ohio, at Penn State, UCF. Three of the first four games are at home – and the team doesn’t leave Pennsylvania until October – but that’s still a dangerous start. No, Pitt isn’t going to start 1-3, but it’ll likely be the underdog in three of those four.
The Panthers have to go to Syracuse in a revenge date for the Orange. They have to go to Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Duke, too.
They’ll win their share of the 50/50 games, and they’ll go bowling, but going back to the ACC title game for a second season in a row is asking for way too much.
NEXT: Big Ten Potential Disappointment
Big Ten: Northwestern
How do you go back to setting the bar at merely going bowling after you’ve seen what life is like in the Big Ten Championship?
Northwestern was good. It managed to get the job done against a solid Utah team in the Holiday Bowl – and Utah never loses bowl games under head coach Kyle Whittingham – and it did what it needed to do to win the Big Ten West and get its cut at Ohio State with the Rose Bowl on the line.
And this year’s team should be even better.
Hunter Johnson should grow into a quarterback upgrade over Clayton Thorson. The rest of the skill parts are in place, the defensive front is going to be a force, and the back seven will be a major plus. There’s a harsh reality, though. There was a reason the Wildcats won the West besides being good.
Yes, under Pat Fitzgerald, the program finds ways to win close battles, but it took too much of a fight to get by Rutgers, the Cats survived Iowa and Illinois, and …
They’re not likely to win all of the tight games again.
Wisconsin was off when it came to Evanston – it wasn’t the same after losing QB Alex Hornibrook. Nebraska choked in its loss, and now it’s better. Purdue choked in it’s loss, and now it’s better.
Northwestern isn’t going to the College Football Playoff, so losing at Stanford to start the season wouldn’t be a big deal, but to get back to the Big Ten title game, it’ll have to survive a schedule with road games at Wisconsin and Nebraska along with home games against Michigan State and Ohio State.
There can’t be mistakes at home against Iowa or Minnesota, and there can’t be a misfire on the road against Indiana or against – gulp – Illinois.
No, the Cats aren’t going to get through the Big Ten season with just one loss again.
NEXT: Big 12 Potential Disappointment
Big 12: Texas
You mean Texas actually has to play the 2018 season? It’s not given a free pass into the College Football Playoff after getting to the Big 12 Championship and whacking around a demoralized Georgia team in the Sugar Bowl?
After so many disappointing seasons for one of college football’s superpower programs, Longhorn fans get a free pass when it comes their excitement. Texas isn’t just relevant again, it’s on the ascension under Tom Herman into national title-good status.
The recruiting has improved, the defensive identity is there in a conference that’s all about the offensive firepower, and with that win over Georgia – along with the victory over Oklahoma – the big performances aren’t just possible now, they’re expected.
That means the hope is for nothing less than a Big 12 Championship this season and a trip to the College Football Playoff. Part One is doable. Part Two is going to be a fight.
If the Longhorns win the Big 12 title and end the Oklahoma run of championships, that’s a big step forward. It takes a lot of luck and a ton of breaks to get into the CFP, and it takes everything coming together at once. That’s a problem for a team that has to make wholesale changes on the defensive front, cornerback, and with the O line needing some work, too.
Texas is going to be good enough to beat anyone on the schedule, but it has to take care of LSU at home, has to go on the road to face West Virginia, TCU, Iowa State and Baylor – the last three of those are improved, and the Mountaineers are going to be dangerous – and, of course, there’s the date with Oklahoma. All of that comes before a Big 12 title game.
And that’s the point. Would another 10-4 season be enough? Will Longhorn fans be disappointed with 12-2 and no College Football Playoff appearance?
Set the bar at winning the Big 12 title. Do that, and it’s a great season no matter what else happens, but getting a shot at the national title is always going to be the goal at Texas.
Also in the same high expectation boat is …
NEXT: Pac-12 Potential Disappointment
Pac-12: Oregon
Get ready for Oregon to be the preseason’s IT team.
Getting back Justin Herbert at quarterback is a big deal, but getting back almost everyone else on offense – including all five starters up front – matters even more.
Helped by an amazing recruiting class, the defense is full of talent, too, with eight starters returning. Both kickers are back, head coach Mario Cristobal is boosting up the profile as one of the hot coaches in the game.
Everything that was building over the last few years appears ready to break through to put the Ducks back into the College Football Playoff picture.
To get there, though, Oregon has to go at least 11-1. That could be a problem with a showdown against Auburn in Arlington, Texas to start the season. Lose, and there’s no margin for error the rest of the way.
To get there, the Ducks have to win the Pac-12 North. Washington is going to be good, too, and the rivalry battle is in Seattle. The Stanford game is in Palo Alto. Washington State is still good, and Cal is strong enough to go bowling again – and that’s just the North.
To get to the CFP, Oregon has to beat Auburn, take down the Pac-12 North, and again, do it all with just one loss. Even if it does all of that, it has to go to USC against an improved Trojan team, and it has to go to Arizona State late in the season.
The CFP might be a bit too lofty a goal with those five killer games – Auburn, Stanford, Washington, USC and Arizona State – away from Eugene, and that doesn’t even include a possible Pac-12 Championship appearance.
Winning the North and taking the conference title would make this a fantastic season no matter what. Anything else for this team with this much talent won’t do.
NEXT: SEC Potential Disappointment
SEC: Florida
It’s all relative.
Coming off the 41-15 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl stomping of Michigan and the four-game winning streak to close out the 2018 season, Florida will likely ranked in everyone’s top 15, or possibly top ten.
And it should be. This should absolutely be one of the top ten teams in the country coming into the season.
Dan Mullen has a terrific team returning. The offense has better quarterback situation – Feleipe Franks is a decent veteran, and Emory Jones has stepped it up this offseason – all of the top receivers return, the secondary will be among the nation’s best, and the lines should come together quickly.
But it’s just that sort of hype that’s the problem.
Is Florida going to be a disappointment if it doesn’t get into the College Football Playoff? No, but it has to get close to winning the SEC East title and needs to at least hit the ten-win mark again, and that’s going to be difficult.
Starting out against Miami in Orlando to kick things off is dangerous. The road game at Kentucky is scary. Tennessee is better. Auburn is better. Florida State is better. Georgia is a killer again. Going to LSU is an issue, having to make the trip to Missouri in mid-November could be cold, and having to play at South Carolina is a landmine.
Florida is good enough to win any and all of those games, but can it go at least 7-2 against that brutal, brutal run? Yeah, but the body blows add up – it’s why playing in the SEC as opposed to, say, the American Athletic Conference, matters.
Against this slate, another 9-3 regular season would be great by almost any reasonable standard.
But Florida is good enough again to be judged by unreasonable standards.
