Distinguishing between wants and needs is crucial for an NFL general manager. It requires more of a big-picture view than that of a head coach, who might be focused mainly on the upcoming season.
As Bears coach Ben Johnson steps into the job, there’s no doubt he has come up with a wish list for general manager Ryan Poles for the draft this week. It’s hard to ascertain how satisfied Johnson is with his core skill players, including running back D’Andre Swift and tight end Cole Kmet. He’d probably love to add a weapon such as Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty or Penn State tight end Tyler Warren.
But Poles only has so many significant picks. The Bears begin Thursday at No. 10, a spot in which teams hope to snag a future All-Pro. They have the 39th and 41st picks Friday, and it’s reasonable to expect those players to be instant starters and eventual Pro Bowl selections.
Then the draft gets unpredictable.
The Bears surely believe their third-rounder at No. 72 overall is valuable, but Poles took wide receiver Velus Jones in the third round in 2022, defensive tackle Zacch Pickens in ’23 and offensive lineman Kiran Amegadjie last year, and none has proved to be an NFL starter yet. In the 2022 and ’23 drafts, only 37 of the 78 players chosen in the third round have had at least one season as a full-time starter in the league.
So with those first three picks being vital, needs must come before wants.
Of their starting 22, left tackle is the most urgent need. Braxton Jones has been a good story after the Bears picked him in the fifth round out of Southern Utah in 2022 but wasn’t up to standards last season and missed 11 games over the last two seasons.
That puts offensive tackle at the top of their list in the first round. There’s no clear-cut leader this year, but Missouri’s Armand Membou has gained momentum recently. LSU’s Will Campbell still is projected to go in the top 10 despite some slippage.
In a year in which there is no consensus, Poles and Johnson must determine which prospect is best and go get him. If that means trading up a couple of spots, so be it. If they prefer Texas’ Kelvin Banks or Ohio State’s Josh Simmons, they could trade back and still get their guy.
With Braxton Jones heading into the last season of his rookie contract, the Bears have to look down the road. Will Jones be so good that he’s worth a massive extension or will the team need to spend big in free agency to find someone better?
Neither option is as appealing as drafting and developing. Not only might that player quickly prove better than Jones, but it makes perfect sense from a financial standpoint. The No. 10 pick is projected to get a four-year, $23.7 million contract based on the collective-bargaining agreement, whereas 30 NFL offensive tackles are averaging at least $15 million on their current contracts.
The Bears have some salary-cap leeway while quarterback Caleb Williams is on his rookie deal, but they’re set to pay defensive ends Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo $115.3 million over the next three seasons, plus $42.8 million to defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. That’s another reason to use that first-round pick on an offensive tackle.
Then the draft actually opens up for the Bears in the second round. They’ll be free to go after one of the better running backs, wide receivers or tight ends.
Any earlier than that would be an error. They learned the hard way last season what happens when the offensive line is unreliable, and there’s no way they can take that chance again.
